NEW: @SidneyPowell1 in radio interview w/ @toddeherman when asked what her "Elevator Pitch" to the Supreme Court would be "The very night of the election many people saw something that they had never seen before in the history of our elections. They saw votes being changed on
God Bless you, @SidneyPowell1!
I like that this was addressed to Deputy AG Richard Donoghue as well. For those who don’t know, his bonafides below. https://t.co/YaxsGhGzxh

Electoral irregularities are real and prevalent in Pennsylvania. Sadly, despite evidence, our Governor and State Department Secretary refuse to investigate.
— Senator Doug Mastriano (@SenMastriano) December 29, 2020
My letter to Acting Deputy Attorney General Richard Donoghue. pic.twitter.com/SeCDmRDUux
What the heck is this? For real. Watch it and tell me. It can\u2019t be what it looks like. Too blatant. What is happening here pic.twitter.com/VgWW8QM6Yp
— Cerno (@Cernovich) December 3, 2020
https://t.co/mKcm4TLxUo

More from Murray 🇺🇸
More from Government
Caveat: This article is sourced from @Daily_Express !!!
"End of Sturgeon?"
Frankly, an appropriate response from @NicolaSturgeon might be to quote the infamous Mark Twain response to an erroneous 'obituary' known to all...
"The reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated."
https://t.co/Ce1xVVISR2
More accurately, the media have quoted:
"Ms Sturgeon said she had a “real job to do” and was focused on guiding Scotland through the Covid-19 pandemic."
It's very reassuring to hear that @scotgov and @ScotGovFM have prioritised safeguarding lives and Scotland, above all else.
"I’ll leave others to play games or politics. I have got a real job to do and people can decide themselves whether I am doing it well or not, but I am absolutely 100 per cent focused on leading this country through a pandemic."
💯% 😀👍
Making her priorities crystal clear!
“That’s what I’ve done since this time last year and it’s what I’m going to continue to do for absolutely as long as necessary.”
And again, making it absolutely crystal clear!
"End of Sturgeon?"
Frankly, an appropriate response from @NicolaSturgeon might be to quote the infamous Mark Twain response to an erroneous 'obituary' known to all...
"The reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated."
https://t.co/Ce1xVVISR2
More accurately, the media have quoted:
"Ms Sturgeon said she had a “real job to do” and was focused on guiding Scotland through the Covid-19 pandemic."
It's very reassuring to hear that @scotgov and @ScotGovFM have prioritised safeguarding lives and Scotland, above all else.
"I’ll leave others to play games or politics. I have got a real job to do and people can decide themselves whether I am doing it well or not, but I am absolutely 100 per cent focused on leading this country through a pandemic."
💯% 😀👍
Making her priorities crystal clear!
“That’s what I’ve done since this time last year and it’s what I’m going to continue to do for absolutely as long as necessary.”
And again, making it absolutely crystal clear!
Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?

The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.

This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta

To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
