My thoughts on the govt announcement yesterday regarding a new viral strain potentially driving an increase in cases in London. The claim, at least from listening to the daily briefing seems to be based on the strain increasing in frequency more recently. 1/N

I'm honestly at a loss as to understanding what our government is thinking & what evidence they're considering in enacting gravely negligent policies that will almost certainly lead to tens of thousands of deaths in the coming weeks. Thread.

To recap - NHS capacity is critical in many places. Hospitals have reported oxygen shortages, and doctors are talking about having to choose who to put on ventilatory support. We have rapidly rising case numbers, >50,000 daily reported cases & 981 deaths reported yesterday.

Let's remember that the impact of socialising over christmas hasn't even begun to show in our numbers yet. And that hospitalisations are indicative of infections that happened ~2-3 wks ago (since then we have been seeing exponential rises in cases).

This means even if we act today, and bring R to below 1 right now, hospitalisations will continue to rise for another 2 wks or so - in line with exponential rises in cases over the past 2 weeks. And deaths will continue to rise for 2-4 wks after we act.

Given current doubling periods, this means very conservatively, 20-30,000 deaths over the next 4 weeks or so, which we sadly can't do anything about now, because most of those who will die during this period have already been infected.

I've been seeing a lot of discussion around the dosage gaps recommended by government for the Astra/Oxford & Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines. My thoughts on the potential benefits & risks of such an approach, and the need for much greater transparency around these decisions. Thread.

The UK govt announced recently that both the Oxford & BioNTech vaccines would be now administered with a gap of between 4-12 weeks (so prioritise administration of first dose, given limited resources).

What is the basis of this?

The basis that's been discussed seems to be that
1) the first dose is likely to confer some degree of protection against disease, so better to roll this out as fast as possible, and
2) that for Oxford/Astra efficacy may be higher when the gap between doses is greater.

I discuss some of the technical details around the Oxford trial below for those interested in these. If you'd just like a summary of this, please skip to the summary tweet titled 'SUMMARY'.

What does published evidence show? The Astra/Oxford data are a bit messy because of protocol changes during the trial. This is because the trial was originally planned as a single dose trial, but a booster dose was added when developers realised that this would likely help.

Last week, @CleCityCouncil started reviewing Mayor Frank Jackson’s proposed city budget for 2021. There was robust discussion, and Documenters were there to cover it. Here’s a thread of what we learned last week about the #CLEBudget

First, it helps to know where we are in the budget process. From today through Feb. 24, the council will meet about the General Fund budget. The council will then agree on a budget with their changes (if any); 15 days after doing so, they can vote to make the budget official.

In other words, there’s still time to use your voice! The #refundcleveland tool can help. Create the #CLEBudget you want and send it to your council member. Click “Change the Budget” on the homepage and follow the on-screen instructions from there.

Want to know the budget basics? Our #CLEBudget primer details the timeline, different types of budgets and the funds involved, and defines budget-related terms. It can be a helpful guide during City Council’s discussions.

And don’t forget: all these meetings are livestreamed on City Council’s YouTube channel. They’re slated to start at 9 a.m. every business day from today through the 24th. You can also follow along with #CLEDocumenters live-tweet threads and

(Thread) Mid-2020 GITMO Update: Arrests, Indictments, & Executions

So before we get started, let us first understand that before Trump was POTUS GITMO (Guantanamo Bay Detention Camp) was a fraction of the size it now is. This can be clearly confirmed by the following visuals, identifying a significant amount of expansion...

for what is expected to be tens of thousands of new ex-elite prisoners. Well, those who are not executed via military tribunal at least. ow, if you are not aware of these indictments I am referring to, that makes perfect sense because they are still sealed and not yet...

Public knowledge. Please allow me to enlighten you. These equate to roughly 222,00 sealed indictments and pertain to the most disturbing and corrupt crimes against humanity. These range from human trafficking, organ trafficking...

child sex trafficking, slavery, treason, terrorism, fraud, misuse of AI, genocide, brainwashing, defamation, 5G endangerment, religious discrimination, misrepresentation, censorship, privacy infringement, and prevention of saving humanity from biotech endangerment.

(1 of 2) Paul Manafort—a longtime associate of Howard Liebengood Sr.—is an exec at Event Strategies, which planned the 1/6 rally that ended with a breach of security at the Capitol, where Howard Liebengood Jr. worked security (USCP). 2 days later Liebengood Jr. committed suicide.

(2 of 2) I believe this is a coincidence. That said, because I don't think Manafort aiding and abetting a rally that ended in insurrection is coincidence, I have to assume that—out of an abundance of caution—law enforcement will investigate any possible Manafort-Liebengood link.

(PS) It is vital that no one presume connections where there may be none. My point is that as a criminal investigative matter, Manafort will be investigated for any role he had in the Save America March, and Liebengood's suicide would naturally be investigated due to its context.

(PS2) I'm sure there'll be those who say that a Donald Trump event giving tons of money to a company that enriches Paul Manafort at a time when Trump continues to need Manafort to stay quiet and Manafort is having money problems is a mere coincidence.

*That* I do not agree with.

(PS3) By the same token, as a federal criminal investigative matter, when you are about to have numerous investigations into whether security at a government building had been pre-compromised and someone who worked security at that building commits suicide, it gets investigated.

Talking with Georgie about the horrible crime committed against Brittany Higgins.

I hope Brittany finds some justice, somehow.

Here's the thing: nothing that matters will change.

A thread:

Two side notes:
* Content warning for trauma and sexual assault
* I initially drafted this and was going to delete it because it's too cynical and very bleak, but it's also the truth and Georgie asked me to be brave and post it.

A Royal Commission has changed nothing.
Paris Street's revelation about St Kevin's changed nothing.
Grace Tame's bravery has changed nothing.
The Pell case has changed nothing.
The Wilson case has changed nothing.
The Redress Scheme has changed nothing.

Georgie burning two careers to jail a serial child rapist has changed nothing.
The National Apology has changed nothing.
The hundreds, if not thousands, of people who report sexual assaults each year have changed nothing.

Because the rules don't apply to the people at the top.

If you're at the top, it doesn't really matter if you're a politician, a political staffer, a journalist, a senior police officer, an ADF officer, a bishop, a business tycoon, or anything else.
If you're in the club, you're in the club.