*** THREAD ***

Accuracy or Entertainment, Which Do You Prefer?

The Importance of Listening to Experts

1/

As you no doubt already know, Twitter is a vast universe of unbridled lunacy.

The most obnoxious and incorrect voices are often amplified, while the truth is drowned out, stifled, then beaten to death through groupthink, and mass pile-ons.

2/
I am not an expert in Active Measures, Information Warfare, Geopolitics or Counterintelligence.

I'm a student, loosely.

But there ARE experts and I have always tried to point my followers to them.

3/
Today, I have an opportunity to show you the difference between an actual intelligence expert with years of experience and a Twitter personality with zero intelligence creds, so that you may see the difference.

Let's compare...

4/
This take comes from a foreigner, who is not even an American citizen, with zero intelligence credentials.

I daresay it IS entertaining.

But, alas, it isn't accurate, which I will soon show you.

https://t.co/zsgIyHNooc

5/
Here is an article on the same topic, from Dr. John Schindler, a former NSA Intelligence Analyst and Naval War College professor, who also has many years experience in Counterintelligence.

https://t.co/WEbJMvW8UH

6/
Declaring the actions of a hostile intelligence service an "Act of War" is no small thing.

While such a characterization may be entirely innocent, the net result is that potentially 300,000 Twitter followers have been unnecessarily whipped into a frenzy over a few words.

7/
Let's take another look at what the intelligence expert has to say...

This is IMPORTANT, because it means something entirely different...calls for an entirely different response...

8/
And accuracy warrants the accolades of OTHER experts.

Here's the response to John's article and expertise, from General Michael Hayden, the only man to have served as Director of both the National Security Agency and the Central Intelligence Agency.

9/
We must, MUST follow experts if we want to get it right.

Twitter personality cults are fun entertainment, particularly because they tell us what we want to hear.

But choosing to listen to them over experts, ultimately, isolates us from the truth.

10/
If you don't already subscribe, I highly recommend considering a subscription to John Schindler's Substack account.

It's the best intelligence expertise you'll find, for normies like us.

https://t.co/aHxbpfSJ0f

11/
Understand CLICKBAIT when you see it.

Don't fall for the fear-mongering.

12/

@threadreaderapp compile please

More from For later read

1. The death of Silicon Valley, a thread

How did Silicon Valley die? It was killed by the internet. I will explain.

Yesterday, my friend IRL asked me "Where are good old days when techies were


2. In the "good old days" Silicon Valley was about understanding technology. Silicon, to be precise. These were people who had to understand quantum mechanics, who had to build the near-miraculous devices that we now take for granted, and they had to work

3. Now, I love libertarians, and I share much of their political philosophy. But you have to be socially naive to believe that it has a chance in a real society. In those days, Silicon Valley was not a real society. It was populated by people who understood quantum mechanics

4. Then came the microcomputer revolution. It was created by people who understood how to build computers. One borderline case was Steve Jobs. People claimed that Jobs was surrounded by a "reality distortion field" - that's how good he was at understanding people, not things

5. Still, the heroes of Silicon Valley were the engineers. The people who knew how to build things. Steve Jobs, for all his understanding of people, also had quite a good understanding of technology. He had a libertarian vibe, and so did Silicon Valley
Nice to discover Judea Pearl ask a fundamental question. What's an 'inductive bias'?


I crucial step on the road towards AGI is a richer vocabulary for reasoning about inductive biases.

explores the apparent impedance mismatch between inductive biases and causal reasoning. But isn't the logical thinking required for good causal reasoning also not an inductive bias?

An inductive bias is what C.S. Peirce would call a habit. It is a habit of reasoning. Logical thinking is like a Platonic solid of the many kinds of heuristics that are discovered.

The kind of black and white logic that is found in digital computers is critical to the emergence of today's information economy. This of course is not the same logic that drives the general intelligence that lives in the same economy.

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