BC FINANCE
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

1/x Since I promised a few investors outside Sweden/Nordics to look deeper into $CDON, with my negative customer biases aside, here's a short thread;

Let's first go through the negatives

 2/x I really understand the excitement when you put on the "local dominant marketplace"-glasses and start comparing CDON multiples to the likes of $AMZN, $MELI, $SE or whatever. But with boots on the ground I can assure you, that they are *nothing* of the sort. At least yet.
3/x Just looking at GMV/revenue, after >20y in business, an "everything store", CDON doesn't even come near other local niche players like $BHG (8bSEK) or $BOOZT (4bSEK) and other private companies. They are closer to $LYKO in size, who are only selling hair & beauty..
4/x Unfortunately the brand is very much on decline (especially among young ppl) since the website has been mistreated for years and years, so I think they have to work extremely hard on building trust + enhance customer experience to even have a change long term.
5/x Like I wrote yesterday we have a very divided (in a good way) eCommerce market in the Nordics, with lots of amazing niche players with top notch customer experience. To put it in words you understand, we are a more $SHOP like region with independent businesses.
6/x Therefore I can't really see the value that a big marketplace would bring to the table (also why I think $AMZN are too late), since I believe we are too eCom-established for that type of buying. CDON have tried since 2013 when 3P Marketplace was launched.
7/x Let's say that I'm wrong and the "Everything Store" approach might work here, without incentives for neither customers (very bad experience/history) nor sellers (most of the e-retailers have a wonderful biz on their own) I think it will be hard to get the flywheel going.
8/x BUT the pandemic might have flipped the script a little. Some companies NEED to go online fast, but lack the digital presence/relationship w/ customers, so the CDON Third Party solution is probably a good start. I think that might add a fair amount of GMV growth right now.
9/x Sum of negatives;

Brand on decline, needs a fixer upper.

History of slow growth, still no scale to talk about.

Tough competition $AMZN $ZAL + low incentives for merchants (although "why not, it's low cost" is a fair argument).

No environment for Everything Stores imo.
10/x On the positive side I really enjoy listening to their new CEO who seems competent and aggressive around their growth ambitions. The new facelift on the site also helps with customer experience, even though delivery time varies immensely and communication still is very poor.
11/x The shift to a pure 3P business model is of course great (although I can't figure out why it has taken such a long time to transition, since the launch 2013?) for scalability, which Q3 seem to prove with 80% gross margins (~29% total in Q2 I believe) for marketplace revenue.
12/x So even if I have a hard time seeing $CDON anywhere near as dominant as the $MELI's of the world, they will probably still have a place in the region for the forseeable future. So the bull case is dead in my eyes, but the base case might be alive and kicking...
13/x With the new margin profile in the making + recent growth spurt w/ newly added merchants (+100% GMV in Q3, pandemic boosted or not something is going very right) the stock trades at a discount with consideration to margin expansion, despite the recent run-up.
14/x At ~400 SEK valuation is around 10x LTM Gross Profit, with ongoing margin expansion, or 1.25x GMV.

EV/GP comps (LTM)
$MELI 61x (1/3 fintech + insane network effects)
$OZON 40x
$ZAL 7x
$ETSY 26x
$EBAY 5x
$LYKO 7x
$AMZN 11x
$JD 8x
$ALE.WA 40x
$BOOZT 6x
15/x When looking at "peers", as I said, I still see a discount. But with $ETSY (growing faster + great brand + huge scale) and $ALE.WA (very established + lots of optionality) on 3x GMV, I find a 1-1.5x multiple fair today for CDON considering large execution risk.
16/x So at 100-200 SEK I admit it would probably have been a buy for me, but unfortunately my bias towards CDON as a customer made me look the other way. At 400 I really need to see more great numbers to stay interested, and are not willing to bet on it despite (some) discount.
17/x Some ppl who I wrote with about it yesterday and might be interested @pbcinc @LiviamCapital @AlexWhite1812 @GetBenchmarkCo @deucetrade @hungry_cap @tjylha @outofWACC

More from Finance

@AdamSmithWorks
@AdamSmithWorks
@adamsmithworks
Today we're gonna talk about profits. They come from stock! #AdamSmith reminds us that stock is any resource paid for in advance when doing business. In general, profits and wages don't move together. (I.ix.1–2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

As stock goes up, there's more of it to employ more workers (by paying them or providing machines for them to work or both). This raises wages! But new stock competes with existing stock, which tends to lower profit. (I.ix.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

If you thought figuring out the average wages of labor was complicated, don't even think about trying to figure out the average profit of stock. Basically impossible. Luckily, the rate of interest tends to vary with the profits of stock. (I.ix.3–4) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Lots of laws have tried to control interest rates and stop usury. They've all failed to do either. (I.ix.5–9) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Profits and wages rising together is unusual, but it happens. In particular, in new colonies. (I.ix.11) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
TRADING , FINANCE
Grant Williams
Grant Williams
@ttmygh
1/ I'm thrilled to announce the launch of my new website, a one-stop shop for all the content I'm creating.

There you'll find links to all my podcasts, the TTMYGH newsletter, and other exciting future projects.

2/ In 2020, I reignited my passion for interviewing brilliant people by launching The Grant Williams Podcast in various forms, including The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, and The Narrative Game.


3/ Starting February 1, I'm taking the bold step of moving these podcasts completely behind a paywall.

For the very affordable price of only $10 a month, listeners can gain access to the Copper Tier of https://t.co/fxUfH8maI4, which includes all current & future podcasts.


4/ Why am I doing this? First and foremost, I aspire to create VALUABLE content. By definition, if something is priced at $0, it isn’t valuable. The time, effort and creativity that goes into these episodes is substantial. To keep doing them properly, they can no longer be free.

5/ I also strongly believe content creators should be able to make a living creating content. If everything is free, that’s not possible. I never seriously considered accepting outside sponsors – complete integrity is too critical to me.
FINANCE
Advertisement
Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
1/ My Mission: To Spread Financial Wellness (thread)

Here’s what "financial wellness" means to me

⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️

2/ Mindset

Humans are programmed to think short-term

Evolutionary, thinking short-term makes sense. It helps with survival.

Financial wellness is all about training yourself to develop a long-term mindset

Not easy -- it takes practice


3/ Mindset

If you join the right tribes, you can’t help but improve

My favs:
@AffordAnything
@ChooseFiFI
FinTwit
@MicroCapClub
@themotleyfoolFool
@visualizevalue

Twitter / Podcasts / Blogs / YouTube -- when used correctly -- are amazing


4/ Mindset

Educate yourself - constantly!

Especially about:

1⃣Money
2⃣Relationships
3⃣Health

These 3 categories have an outsized influence on all areas of your life

Books


5/ Career

In the beginning, focus on growing your income

Do more than what is expected

Become a lynchpin

Find a career that you ENJOY (<- important!) that also has high-income potential

Start a side hustle (<- important!)

Build your talent
FINANCE
Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
A small thread on intraday support resistance logics over time

The most common is Pivot , support and resistances calculated from the previous day's data

https://t.co/ILMjMay1zc

They can be calculated for daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Camarilla levels are also quite popular. This seemed to be the next best thing after the original pivots at one point of

Over the years, many other technicians have tried to devise other methods to devise intraday support resistance points. In almost all cases, the previous days OHLC were used in some variation, in some cases today's OPEN was also used as an input

I have gone through almost all of the formulas. Some work on some days, some days it doesn't.
What struck me was that in each of the cases , we were using the OHLC and doing some maths with a multiplier/divider which WE/the trader thought fits the price action of the markets

This is the same as choosing a time period of an indicator and hope the market follows my choice of time frame to give me good trades. Like say a crossover of a 5/13 moving average, or a 14 period RSI or whatever.
FINANCE
Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
Rule 4 : If buying a naked option, always ensure that implied volatility is low. This can be understood from the level of IV vis a vis historical IV levels. Use IVR or IVP etc.
For a naked option to make money, it's better if IV rises or at least stays flat.


This is a thread I wrote on IV, IVR etc
FINANCE

You May Also Like

Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
Did you know?

When Saudi Arabia's King visited India in 1955, PM Nehru ordered all the Hindu Temples and Idols of Hindu Deities that came in Saudi King's way to be covered up.
Our temples are the architectural marvels in their own league.


Each of our temples tells the story of our rich history and cultural heritage. Was Nehru that ashamed of his own nation's heritage that he had to cover them up or there was some other reason? The answer would be best known to him only.

PM Nehru invited the then Saudi King Saud bin Abdul Aziz to India who accepted the invitation and planned a 17 day long official visit to India in 1955. Saudi King had brought a large delegation with him and he had to visit various Indian cities like Mumbai, Hyderabad, Agra,


Aligarh, Shimla, Mysore and Varanasi. However, when Saudi King reached Varanasi, Nehru ordered to cover all the temples and Idols with curtains that came in the way of the Royal Convoy. During his stay in Varanasi, Govt buildings were painted with the words "Kalma Tayyiba".


'Kalma Tayyiba' means 'There is not God but only Allah and Mohammed is his messenger'. In addition to it, Pooja and Aartis were also stopped at temples. I can call it the appeasement politics of the highest order and Nehru was indeed the greatest appeaser of all times.
ALL
Simon DeDeo
Simon DeDeo
@SimonDeDeo
One thing that goes unremarked about Wikipedia: the vast majority of the content was written over 12 years ago—which means (given turnover) that the editors dominant today were not directly involved in that creation.

Put another way, the editors who built the dominant nodes in this network...


...have little overlap with the ones who made this much more recent managerial flowchart.


Internet time runs at hundred-fold speed—the difference between the people who painted what's in the Uffizi, and the people in charge of keeping those paintings from deteriorating. Very different tasks, and (one presumes) very personalities as well. @PaulSkallas?
ALL
Advertisement
\uc2e0\ub150\uc758\uc0ac\ub098\uc774
신념의사나이...
@Belposto_korea
The RV and the Redemption Funds.

ALL Exchanged Currencies as well as all Zim Redemption funds will be placed in the accounts they set up in the Quantum Financial System./1

Absolutely none of these funds will be placed in a Bank at the redemption appointment. Bank computers cannot be programmed to transfer Digital Gold Certificates./2

The QFS can and will transplant funds into a bank account as has been explained earlier,/3

so a person can transfer funds to their own bank account but the desirability will become less and less as the banks go into receivership and their customer’s deposits are confiscated to avoid the Bank’s demise./4

Which bank can compete with the QFS when the QFS is free, secure, private, and stable? One of the major problems in the transition will be the use of Debit Cards for merchant purchases. Will VISA or Mastercard be available?/5
FINANCE
\u0938\u093e \u0935\u093f\u0926\u094d\u092f\u093e \u092f\u093e \u0935\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0924\u092f\u0947
सा विद्या या विमुक्तये...
@raghav_aanya
कुंडली में 12 भाव होते हैं। कैसे ज्योतिष द्वारा रोग के आंकलन करते समय कुंडली के विभिन्न भावों से गणना करते हैं आज इस पर चर्चा करेंगे।
कुण्डली को कालपुरुष की संज्ञा देकर इसमें शरीर के अंगों को स्थापित कर उनसे रोग, रोगेश, रोग को बढ़ाने घटाने वाले ग्रह


रोग की स्थिति में उत्प्रेरक का कार्य करने वाले ग्रह, आयुर्वेदिक/ऐलोपैथी/होमियोपैथी में से कौन कारगर होगा इसका आँकलन, रक्त विकार, रक्त और आपरेशन की स्थिति, कौन सा आंतरिक या बाहरी अंग प्रभावित होगा इत्यादि गणना करने में कुंडली का प्रयोग किया जाता है।


मेडिकल ज्योतिष में आज के समय में Dr. K. S. Charak का नाम निर्विवाद रूप से प्रथम स्थान रखता है। उनकी लिखी कई पुस्तकें आज इस क्षेत्र में नए ज्योतिषों का मार्गदर्शन कर रही हैं।
प्रथम भाव -
इस भाव से हम व्यक्ति की रोगप्रतिरोधक क्षमता, सिर, मष्तिस्क का विचार करते हैं।


द्वितीय भाव-
दाहिना नेत्र, मुख, वाणी, नाक, गर्दन व गले के ऊपरी भाग का विचार होता है।
तृतीय भाव-
अस्थि, गला,कान, हाथ, कंधे व छाती के आंतरिक अंगों का शुरुआती भाग इत्यादि।

चतुर्थ भाव- छाती व इसके आंतरिक अंग, जातक की मानसिक स्थिति/प्रकृति, स्तन आदि की गणना की जाती है


पंचम भाव-
जातक की बुद्धि व उसकी तीव्रता,पीठ, पसलियां,पेट, हृदय की स्थिति आंकलन में प्रयोग होता है।

षष्ठ भाव-
रोग भाव कहा जाता है। कुंडली मे इसके तत्कालिक भाव स्वामी, कालपुरुष कुंडली के स्वामी, दृष्टि संबंध, रोगेश की स्थिति, रोगेश के नक्षत्र औऱ रोगेश व भाव की डिग्री इत्यादि।
ALL
Brittany Packnett
Brittany Packnett
@MsPackyetti
We should stop confusing what someone was doing when we became aware of them with all they are capable of, interested in, or ever hope to be

Let folks have their many talents, interests and gifts. Life is far more fun with variety, loves.

A lot of folks have come to know me as an activist & I’m grateful that folks care to know me at all.

But I wasn’t born in 2014. I was a whole teacher, executive, policy person, speaker, arts and culture lover, reader, writer, woman of faith, fashion and more before 4 yrs ago 🤷🏾‍♀️

We rightfully complain that marginalized people are not allowed to be fully human.

But we internalize and transfer our oppression daily. It’s a smog. We all breathe it in & act it out.

And then tell WoC “girl ain’t you supposed to be a _______? Why you doing ____?”

Can I live?

And don’t go reading anything personal into this-this isn’t about me necessarily and it’s no subtweet (I try hard not to do that.)

I’ve just been observing that behavior more and more lately. Especially when it comes to marginalized folks.

Evolution should be our aspiration.

“Can’t knock the hustle” should be our anthem.

As long as someone isn’t bringing active and continual harm, why can’t they explore their many sides?
SOCIETY