BC FINANCE
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

Today, a mezz thread!

Also, the answer to a few questions including:

Yesterday’s Value That Company!
Also, Why am I so dumb?
Finally, Why listen to me? 🤷‍♂️

Here we go!

 A few years ago, I get a call from an acquaintance (we have several mutual good friends). He’s running a fast growing consumer finance company and needs cash...

It isn’t “I need $5 Million by Friday” but it’s close...
How fast are they growing? By the time we are negotiating the deal a week or 10 day later, the ask is up to $10 Million...
We did a little time travel yesterday on Value That Company, and I put you back in my shoes 3 years ago...

(Answer shortly)... https://t.co/mNFNGgHiMI
The business is fascinating, but also extremely sensitive to assumptions, underwriting, etc...

Management is good, but also very aggressive which I’m not sure I love...

Worse, we don’t have the time to really dig into the numbers as extensively as I’d like... https://t.co/np5UPBmjnu
Value That Company Answer:

I get comfortable enough with the numbers to estimate the company is worth at least $100 Million ...

Will I lend $10 Million (this was a big deal so I partnered with some friends) into $100 M equity value? Sure

Then the CEO asked if I’d do equity?
I politely decline, and go close the mezz deal ...

The company continues growing, and refinances me out within a year.

I get a 36.9% IRR ... a good deal all the way around.
But, oh wait, there is more! Turns out Matt is an idiot for not taking equity.

Yesterday, @IrishCapMGMT correctly identified the company on everyone’s favorite valuation game.

The company just sold for $1.65 Billion less than 3 years later... https://t.co/trYKMEJaJB
Based on these deal metrics, the correct valuation when I was looking at it was $88-200 Million (basically where I was)... take a midpoint of $150 Million and I could have done a 10x in less than 3 years
So, do I feel bad? Maybe, but I’d make the exact same decision again. Here are a few reasons:

1) Circle of Competence/Discipline - This deal was a success for me because I stayed disciplined within what I know. I don’t like/try to avoid risks I don’t understand
2) An honest congratulations to all involved (I have at least 3 friends and a former next door neighbor in the equity) ...

Why should their success diminish mine?
3) I believe there is still risk in this business that I don’t understand. The unit economics make no sense for the borrower (I’ve told my children to NEVER finance something in the store). Will a new administration/CFPB care?

IDK, but I’m unwilling to take the risk...
4) I haven’t looked at the financials for Rent-A-Center but I actually think this is a good deal for them. It’s a way to modernize their business while staying within their competence...

(I won’t be investing, though - see #1)
Final) Thank You for following along as I take this Twitter journey. I confess that I love it!
@threadreaderapp unroll

More from Finance

Vikrant
Vikrant
@Trading0secrets
Full chart learning course 🎓
In single thread 🧵

Process of trading through
price action ✨👇

1⃣Time frame - always start looking chart 📊 with higher time frame (weekly/monthly) then after go for lower one .

Positional trader - weekly/monthly

Swing trader - daily /3hours

Intraday trader - 15/30min

2⃣ demand /supply zone - then draw major/minor demand & supply zone .।।।

Ex : #SIS


3️⃣ Trading style -

⚡If you are positional trader then focus on major demand & supply zone.

⚡If you are swing trader then focus on minor demand & supply zone.

Wait for price to come on it then, 👇

4⃣find consolidation -

⚡Positional trader - consolidation should be above 1/2years.

⚡ swing trader - consolidation should be below 1/2 years

⚡Intraday trader - consolidation should above 5/10 days.

Ex - #galxo / #triveni / #vimta
ALL , PRICEACTION , FINANCE
Thomas Chua
Thomas Chua
@SteadyCompound
Terry Smith is often referred to as "the English Warren Buffett".

He runs Fundsmith which has a fund size of £27.9bn.

Despite the size, Fundsmith did a CAGR of 18.4%.

In his book Investing for Growth, he explains his investing philosophy.

Here's a breakdown:


1. Fundsmith's winning formula

Find companies that focus on delivering value.

Not those who are looking to pacify Wall Street with short-term results.


2. Avoiding "cheap" companies?

Low multiples are not a reason to buy a company.

A ship will continue to sink if it has a hole in it.

"A stock may have a low valuation but an even lower intrinsic value. Buying such a stock is not a recipe for investment success."


3. Getting quality right

For long-term investors, getting the quality of the business is more important than the valuation.

“An investor could have paid 281 times earnings for L’Oréal, 156 times for Colgate, and 147 times for Brown-Forman and still beat the market.”


4. "Unprofitable" companies could be good investments

Many of the best companies don't show earnings today.

But that's because they're heavily reinvesting for the future.

It's just that the earnings hasn't show up.
FINANCE
Advertisement
Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK
If you want to become financially independent and don't know where to start, here is a thread that will help you get started

/THREAD/

1. Review your expenses and make a budget

It will help you see where you overspend, make a plan to save, pay down debt and start


2. Set your investing and retirement goals

How much do you need to support yourself in retirement and when do you want to


3. The earlier you start investing, the better.

Here's why and how time and compounding can become your


4. Invest in an index fund

It's easy, safe, cheap, and the best choice for a beginner in investing, with not much time for
FINANCE
Chuck Marr
Chuck Marr
@ChuckCBPP
I sense a few double standards present in the debate over Bidens’ historic Child Tax Credit proposal that would cut the child poverty rate by more than 40%.

My focus here is on a perhaps less obvious one but I think relevant: trust fund kids & the tax treatment of inheritances

Since the mid-1990s, as I’ll walk through, reducing the taxation of large inheritances has been a top, if not the top, tax policy priority of conservatives and Republicans.

In parallel, as I’ll also walk through, there has been a steady stream of research concluding that large inheritances reduce the work effort of wealthy heirs

Unless I’ve missed it, I’ve not sensed the type of concern about the work effects on wealthy heirs among conservative proponents of large tax-free inheritances, which we now see among some conservatives and Republican lawmakers around poor people and a larger Child Tax Credit

In 1997, as part of an agreement with Clinton, who secured wins to make health care more affordable for poor children and college tax credits, Gingrich won “reductions in capital gains and estate taxes that had been principal goals for the GOP.”
FINANCE
Vitor Const\xe2ncio
Vitor Constâncio
@VMRConstancio
A potential problem is looming, and the media are pursuing a new story that builds on the following chain of reasoning: 1) higher inflation is coming;2) if CBs increase interest rates debts will explode and recession may ensue; 3) CBs are caught in an impossible dilemma 1/12

It´s perhaps too complex for some tweets, but.. Registered inflation this year is bound to be higher than present forecasts, resulting from one-off price spikes and base effects That will not start a sustained high inflation process, but temporary higher inflation is possible 2/

For example, Euro Area inflation increased suddenly from several months at -0.3% to +0.9% in Jan. This jump resulted mostly from several base effects, especially the change to German VAT. Inflation expectations increasing but higher in the US than in the EA 3/


The major one-off base effect will come from oil prices that decreased abysmally in March 2020 and have recovered. Some estimates put US inflation in April reaching 4%! After vaccinations, later in the year, pent-up consumer demand will also increase prices.4/


Despite the increased spending of accumulated savings, the savings rate will remain higher than before Covid for precautionary reasons (Fig 1). No permanent spending spree will materialise. Wages will remain subdued for a while (Fig2). Higher but not high inflation is coming.5/
FINANCE

You May Also Like

Zach Weinersmith
Zach Weinersmith
@ZachWeiner
Hey, for people interested in this stuff, here's a thread about a change we made to running our facebook account:

So, about 5 years ago, we got on facebook. Why? Well, facebook has a big audience and they like to consume on facebook. So, we started posting comics there, even though we got paid nothing and facebook made money off the free content.

Why? Because back then, once in a while, you would say "also hey, I sell books" or "hey, I'm going to be signing at this event" and your facebook followers would actually see it.

Effectively, the implicit old arrangement was "facebook lets me reach readers efficiently, and I supply facebook with free content they run ads on."

Over time, like a bad business partner, facebook basically made it impossible to reach your audience without *paying them*. Thus, you supply them free content on which they run ads, and you get nothing in exchange.
MARKETING
Suhas S. Hardutt
Suhas S. Hardutt
@HarduttSuhas
Marvels of Medical Science in Ancient India

ACHARYA SUSHRUTA and SUSHRUTA SAMHITA

Ancient Indians were pioneers in diverse fields of study and their genius was centuries ahead of their times. Feel the glory, basking in pride of their unparalleled achievements.

(Thread)


Sushruta (circa 7th or 6th century BC) was a surgeon who in present times is known as the “father of Indian medicine” and “father of plastic surgery” for inventing and developing surgical procedures. He lived in Kashi on the banks of river Ganga.(1)

His work documented in the Sushruta Samhita (compendium) is one of the oldest texts in the world on plastic surgery and regarded as one of the trilogies of Ayurveda. The other 2 being the Charaka Samhita and Astanga Hridaya.(2)

Sushruta compiled the Sushruta Samhita as an instruction manual for physicians to treat patients.(3)

The Samhita caters to surgical techniques listing over 300 surgical procedures and 120 surgical instruments. Additionally to 1,120 diseases, injuries and their treatments with over 700 medicinal herbs and their application.(4)
RELIGION
Advertisement
Erik Torenberg
Erik Torenberg
@eriktorenberg
1/ Some initial thoughts on personal moats:

Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.

Characteristics of a personal moat below:


2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.

As Andrew Chen noted:


3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized

Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than


4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.

After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.

5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.

In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.
LIFE
Pat Walls
Pat Walls
@thepatwalls
And here they are...

THE WINNERS OF THE 24 HOUR STARTUP CHALLENGE

Remember, this money is just fun. If you launched a product (or even attempted a launch) - you did something worth MUCH more than $1,000.

#24hrstartup

The winners 👇

#10

Lattes For Change - Skip a latte and save a life.

https://t.co/M75RAirZzs

@frantzfries built a platform where you can see how skipping your morning latte could do for the world.

A great product for a great cause.

Congrats Chris on winning $250!


#9

Instaland - Create amazing landing pages for your followers.

https://t.co/5KkveJTAsy

A team project! @bpmct and @BaileyPumfleet built a tool for social media influencers to create simple "swipe up" landing pages for followers.

Really impressive for 24 hours. Congrats!


#8

SayHenlo - Chat without distractions

https://t.co/og0B7gmkW6

Built by @DaltonEdwards, it's a platform for combatting conversation overload. This product was also coded exclusively from an iPad 😲

Dalton is a beast. I'm so excited he placed in the top 10.


#7

CoderStory - Learn to code from developers across the globe!

https://t.co/86Ay6nF4AY

Built by @jesswallaceuk, the project is focused on highlighting the experience of developers and people learning to code.

I wish this existed when I learned to code! Congrats on $250!!
MAKERS
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
1/OK, I should really write another thread about university-centric regional development, because I think people often make some (very understandable) mistakes when thinking about this issue.

2/The biggest myth, I think, is that universities help regions by educating locals as undergraduates.

Skeptics of universities say: "But most of the people who graduate end up leaving."

3/In fact, most of what a university does for a regional economy is NOT about educating local kids.

Educating local kids is good for the nation, but doesn't help a region much.

The way a university helps a region is through

4/Undergraduates usually leave town after graduation.

But university RESEARCH pulls in OTHER smart people from other regions, and they stay there.

Here's a paper showing that this is the main way universities increase a region's human capital:

5/Research also pulls in business investment.

Companies want to partner with university labs, so they can commercialize the technologies the labs produce. So they invest in the labs, and sometimes they even put their offices in the town.
SOCIETY