1/ Peter Bevelin, who has written books like “Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger,” provided me with a rough transcript of the Charlie Munger talk from yesterday. I did some clean up and editing and focus on points I didn’t make in my tweets yesterday.
To succeed, start early, try hard, and keep doing it. All success comes that way." CM
Charlie Munger
Charlie Munger
[Charlie Munger would say that about a "crazy rightist" too.]
Charlie Munger
More from Finance
I credit Fintwit for my learnings.
Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:
1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger
(Read on...)
6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies
Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:
1. How much $$ do you need to retire
Before you start, you must know the end game.
To meet your retirement goals...
How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?
10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.
Hint: It's NOT
1/
— 10-K Diver (@10kdiver) July 25, 2020
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll help you work out how much money you need to retire.
2. Research a business
Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.
Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.
Conclusion?
To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.
Start with
1/ Thoughts on Research Process
— Mostly Borrowed Ideas (@borrowed_ideas) September 27, 2021
I was invited to present my research process at a college in the US. I am sharing all ten slides here. pic.twitter.com/z0tjZcogfH
3. Reading annual reports
This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.
You cannot just listen to opinions from others.
You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.
Start with the 10k.
Ming Zhao explains it
\U0001f9d0How to Read 10Ks Like a Hedge Fund\U0001f9d0
— Ming Zhao (@FabiusMercurius) May 7, 2021
\u201cFundamentals don\u2019t matter anymore!\u201d I\u2019ve heard this a lot lately on Fintwit.\U0001f644
But, for those who\u2019ve diversify beyond $GME and $DOGE, here\u2019s a primer on what metrics fundamental buy-side PMs look at and why:
(real examples outlined)
\U0001f447 pic.twitter.com/tLlNRvpnDK
Last month I wrote about the distinction between long-term secular inflation and shorter-term cyclical inflation
It has been clear for several months that we are in the middle of a cyclical rise in
Now, in the short-term, the manufacturing sector is red hot, driven by a pent-up demand rebound in goods consumption.
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) January 4, 2021
Commodity prices are screaming which gives legs to "goods" inflation in the short-term.
8) pic.twitter.com/rQcqHf1OD0
The full thread can be reviewed here:
Consensus continues to conflate the inflation story, mixing and matching long-term and short-term charts to fit what is generally a secular inflation narrative.
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) January 4, 2021
Here are my two cents to make the distinction clear.
1)
Today's PPI report should have been expected to surprise to the upside as the leading indicators of inflation have been screaming to the upside for months!
Here is the ISM prices paid index, cumulated into a growth rate
3/

Industrial commodity prices have also seen a major acceleration for months.
4/

So today's PPI report was in line with the leads, suggesting that we have a cyclical upturn in inflation that is * primarily concentrated in the manufacturing sector *
This is a key point.
5/

In a high IV environment or when the market is very volatile
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) January 21, 2022
" OTM options will behave like ATM options", one will get almost the same delta movement
Say we have two options, one 50 delta ATM options and another 30 delta OTM option. Normally for a 100 point move, the ATM option will move 50 points and the OTM option will move 30 points. But in a high volatile environment, the OTM option will also move nearly 50 points
To understand why this happens, first understand why an ATM option is 50 delta. An ATM option has the probability of 50% of expiring as ITM. The price just has to close a rupee above the strike for the CE to be ITM and vice versa for PEs
Now think of a highly volatile day like today. If someone is asked where the BNF will close for the day or expiry, no one can answer. BNF can close freakin anywhere, That makes every option of an equal probability of being ITM. So all options have a 50% probability of being ITM
Hence, when a huge volatile move starts, all OTM options behave like ATM options. This phenomenon was first observed in the Black Monday crash of 1987 at Wall Street, which also gave rise to the volatility skew/smirk
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