1/ Peter Bevelin, who has written books like “Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger,” provided me with a rough transcript of the Charlie Munger talk from yesterday. I did some clean up and editing and focus on points I didn’t make in my tweets yesterday.

2/ “All successful investment involves trying to get into something where it's worth more than you're paying. That's what successful investment is. There are a lot of different ways to find something worth more than you're paying. You can do what Sequoia does [e.g, in VC]."
3/ “Good investing requires a weird combination of patience and aggression and not many people have it. It also requires a big amount of self-awareness about how much you know and how much you don't know. You have to know the edge of your own competency."
4/ "A lot of brilliant people are no good knowing the edge of their own competency. They think they're way smarter than they are. Of course, that's dangerous and causes trouble.” Charlie Munger
5/ “When I was young, there was practically nobody involved in investing and they weren't very smart. Now almost everybody's smart. A good proportion of the people in investing are sucked into finance by the money. That's an important development. I don't welcome it at all."
6/ "I don't think we want the whole world trying to get rich by outsmarting the rest of the world. But that's what's happened. There's been frenzies of speculation and so on. It's been very interesting, but it's not been all good.” CM
7/ "You find out whether you got the qualities to win at poker by playing poker. It helps to know the math and Pascal, but everybody with any sense knows that. Having a temperament where math and Pascal is almost as much a part of you as your ear and nose, is hard to teach.”
8/ “In the early days we found some people instantly converted to our way of investing and did very well. Some people, no matter how carefully we explained it and no matter how successful they were otherwise could never learn that. Either they got it fast or didn't get it at all”
9/ “A lot of people think they're way smarter than they are and they do worse than dumb people. It's very common to be utterly brilliant and think you're way the hell smarter than you are.

To succeed, start early, try hard, and keep doing it. All success comes that way." CM
10/ “All the things that were really great when I were young have receded enormously. New things have come up and some of them have started to die. That is what the long-term investment climate is, which does make it very interesting." [more later]
11/ [Call cancelled so I'm back] Munger: "Look at what's died: department stores, newspapers, steel, John D Rockefeller's Standard Oil is a pale shadow of what it was. It is just like biology. They have their little hour, they have their little time and then they get clobbered.”
12/ “Everybody uses new technology, but it really helps to have a position that almost can't be taken away by technology. You can hardly think of a more old-fashioned business than a railroad business. But who in hell is ever going to create another trunk railroad?" Munger
13/ "Burlington Northern is a very good asset for us, so, and we made that success, not by concrete change, but by avoiding it. Burlington Northern has been quite clever at adapting technology to their railroad."
14/ "Imagine the good luck of being able to take an existing railroad and double-deck all the trains, and raise the heights of the tunnels a little, and so forth. All of a sudden you've got twice the capacity at very little incremental cost, which is what that railroad has done."
15/ ''A friend send me a blue blazer made in China, bought on the Chinese internet, and it cost $42 delivered. It may not have been a perfect blazer, but it was an amazing blazer for $42. The person who created that blazer gave some little factory an order for 100,000 at once."
16/ "They were pre-sold. It's the most extreme kind of "kill all our competitors" type of selling I've ever seen. How good is it for Brooks Brothers when somebody can deliver a blazer through the internet from China for $42? It didn't look like that bad a blazer to me either.”
17/ "“I spent a lifetime trying to avoid my own mental biases. A) I rubbed my own nose in my own mistakes. B) I try and keep it simple and fundamental as much as I can. I like the engineering concept of a margin of safety. I'm a very blocking and tackling kind of a thinker."
18/ "I just try and avoid being stupid. I have a way of handling a lot of problems. I put them on what I call my 'too-hard pile.' Then I just leave them there. I'm not trying to succeed in my too-hard pile. I sometimes get things that are too hard and when that happens, I fail."
19/ "The single most important thing, if you want to avoid a lot of stupid errors, is knowing where you're competent and where you aren't. That's very hard to do, because the human mind naturally tries to make you think you're way smarter than you are.” Charlie Munger
20/ “Early innovation by Giannini's Bank of America helped immigrants by giving them loans. He kind of knew which ones were good for it and which ones weren't. I think that was all for the good. That brought banking to a lot of people who deserved it."
21/ "Bank of America helped the economy and helped everybody. Once banking got so they wanted to have soft hands and make zillions as speculators, those developments haven't been a plus. In other words, I like banking when they're trying to avoid losses prudently.” CM
22/ “Some European government borrowed money recently for some tiny little fraction of 1% for a hundred years. Now, that is weird. What kind of lunatic would loan money to a European government for a hundred years at less than 1%?”
23/ “In my lifetime, advanced civilization has gotten ahead faster than any century that existed before. Nothing else was even close. It's utterly without precedent in real terms." Charlie Munger
24/ "It's unbelievable, I watched the whole damn thing quite literally because I've lived so long. It's been absolutely astounding.” CM
25/ “Just think of how hard it is to get far ahead in life. Imagine, first you want to get ahead at Caltech. If you're very brilliant and work 80 or 90 hours a week for 9 or 10 years, you get tenure. That is not what I call an easy life and competing with the Homer Joe Stewarts."
26/ "I chose to avoid [academia as a career] because I knew I wouldn't win big at it. I would have been a perfectly successful professor by ordinary standards, but I would not have been a star.” CM
27/ "I'm a big fan of knowing the big ideas in pretty much all of the disciplines, the ones that are pretty easy to assimilate, and then using those routinely in your judgments. That's just my system. I don't believe in just constantly consulting with experts." Munger
28/ "I might consult experts in building a chemical plant or something. But in making investment decisions it's very helpful to be comfortable with the big ideas in all the disciplines. I think that life's more fun if you do that."

Charlie Munger
29/ "Academia is not very good at the interdisciplinary stuff. Academia rewards a researcher who knows more and more about less and less, and there are real difficulties with that approach."

Charlie Munger
30/ "It's harder to be that smart in the liberal arts, partly because many liberal arts professors are so leftist. It's hard to be pretty smart if you're crazy leftist. You're going to have the world a lot wrong.”

[Charlie Munger would say that about a "crazy rightist" too.]
31/ "What helps everyone is to get in something that's going up and it just carries you along without much talent or work. If you pick a really strong place, like say Costco, and you go to work at it, and you really are reliable and nice, you're going to do fine in life." Munger
32/ "Nobody wants to go to work for Costco after graduating from Harvard, or MIT, or Stanford. Of course, it's the one place where it would be easiest to get ahead. You would have a big tailwind.”

Charlie Munger
33/ “I'm proudest of avoiding some things I don't like. I don't like irrationality, and I've worked to try and avoid it in my life. I haven't succeeded completely of course. Nobody does. It's been a pleasant way of going through life."

Charlie Munger
34/ That's a wrap on my edited "twitscript" of the Munger interview.

Did the interviewer ask great questions? No.

Could current topics have been explored via great questions, that would have produced zingers? Yes.

It was way better than a poke in the eye with a stick tho.

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I'm lucky to attain financial freedom before 30.

I credit Fintwit for my learnings.

Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:

1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger

(Read on...)

6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies

Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:

1. How much $$ do you need to retire

Before you start, you must know the end game.

To meet your retirement goals...

How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?

10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.

Hint: It's NOT


2. Research a business

Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.

Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.

Conclusion?

To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.

Start with


3. Reading annual reports

This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.

You cannot just listen to opinions from others.

You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.

Start with the 10k.

Ming Zhao explains it
Inflation is coming, inflation is coming!

Last month I wrote about the distinction between long-term secular inflation and shorter-term cyclical inflation

It has been clear for several months that we are in the middle of a cyclical rise in


The full thread can be reviewed here:


Today's PPI report should have been expected to surprise to the upside as the leading indicators of inflation have been screaming to the upside for months!

Here is the ISM prices paid index, cumulated into a growth rate

3/


Industrial commodity prices have also seen a major acceleration for months.

4/


So today's PPI report was in line with the leads, suggesting that we have a cyclical upturn in inflation that is * primarily concentrated in the manufacturing sector *

This is a key point.

5/
Ok here is the explanation. Grab a cup of coffee and read on. If you have not read/noticed this, you will see intraday options movement in a new light.


Say we have two options, one 50 delta ATM options and another 30 delta OTM option. Normally for a 100 point move, the ATM option will move 50 points and the OTM option will move 30 points. But in a high volatile environment, the OTM option will also move nearly 50 points

To understand why this happens, first understand why an ATM option is 50 delta. An ATM option has the probability of 50% of expiring as ITM. The price just has to close a rupee above the strike for the CE to be ITM and vice versa for PEs

Now think of a highly volatile day like today. If someone is asked where the BNF will close for the day or expiry, no one can answer. BNF can close freakin anywhere, That makes every option of an equal probability of being ITM. So all options have a 50% probability of being ITM

Hence, when a huge volatile move starts, all OTM options behave like ATM options. This phenomenon was first observed in the Black Monday crash of 1987 at Wall Street, which also gave rise to the volatility skew/smirk

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Legacy site *downloads* ~630 KB CSS per theme and writing direction.

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3,370 unique declarations
44 media queries
36 unique colors
50 unique background colors
46 unique font sizes
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PWA *incrementally generates* ~30 KB CSS that handles all themes and writing directions.

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The legacy site's CSS is what happens when hundreds of people directly write CSS over many years. Specificity wars, redundancy, a house of cards that can't be fixed. The result is extremely inefficient and error-prone styling that punishes users and developers.

The PWA's CSS is generated on-demand by a JS framework that manages styles and outputs "atomic CSS". The framework can enforce strict constraints and perform optimisations, which is why the CSS is so much smaller and safer. Style conflicts and unbounded CSS growth are avoided.