#Fibonacci
#Nifty

I realized yday that nobody in my pretty large circle knows how fib levels are calculated on log scale. So here goes:

1. Take the highest high (HH) & the lowest low (LL) of the range
2. Next, take the natural log (ln function in excel) of the ratio HH/LL.

3. So, you now have the log returns, really the best way to measure them. Call it R.
4. Now take the difference between the natural log of HH and the fib ratio multiplied by the log returns
5. Say, ln(HH) - (0.382*R). Call it A
6. Finally, take exp(A)
That will be the level which corresponds to the 38.2% fib of the range between the HH and the LL on a log scale basis.

Big shout to to Dr Strange aka @shetty_ashish for this.

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So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.


The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.

This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.

The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."

This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.