Thread (Goods, Services, Federal Reserve and DXY)

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The #COVID19 pandemic resulted in increased Goods consumption. The Services to Goods consumption meant increased Trade Deficit for US. That was negative for Dollar. That was in 2020.

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The pre-pandemic US retail sales were at $525 bn per month. This is hovering at about $625 bn per month.

This resulted in massive Current Account Surplus in EZ/ China

The reopening of economy means Normalization of Services consumption and reduction of Goods consumption.
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This reopening of US will result in reduction of US merchandise trade deficit. Positive for #DXY

The reopening of Emerging Market economies will result in reduction of Current Account Surpluses or increase in Deficit. Positive for Dollar.
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There is CB policy divergence also at play. Hawkish Federal Reserve and Dovish ECB. Again positive for $DXY

The Jackson Hole Conference and September #FOMC will become important for DXY trajectory

It's clear that dips are to be bought in Dollar

Thanks for reading!

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1/ Here’s a list of conversational frameworks I’ve picked up that have been helpful.

Please add your own.

2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you


3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.

“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”

“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”

4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:

“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”

“What’s end-game here?”

“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”

5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:

“What would the best version of yourself do”?