Thread (Goods, Services, Federal Reserve and DXY)

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The #COVID19 pandemic resulted in increased Goods consumption. The Services to Goods consumption meant increased Trade Deficit for US. That was negative for Dollar. That was in 2020.

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The pre-pandemic US retail sales were at $525 bn per month. This is hovering at about $625 bn per month.

This resulted in massive Current Account Surplus in EZ/ China

The reopening of economy means Normalization of Services consumption and reduction of Goods consumption.

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This reopening of US will result in reduction of US merchandise trade deficit. Positive for #DXY

The reopening of Emerging Market economies will result in reduction of Current Account Surpluses or increase in Deficit. Positive for Dollar.

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There is CB policy divergence also at play. Hawkish Federal Reserve and Dovish ECB. Again positive for $DXY

The Jackson Hole Conference and September #FOMC will become important for DXY trajectory

It's clear that dips are to be bought in Dollar

Thanks for reading!

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