Thread (Goods, Services, Federal Reserve and DXY)
1/4
The #COVID19 pandemic resulted in increased Goods consumption. The Services to Goods consumption meant increased Trade Deficit for US. That was negative for Dollar. That was in 2020.
2/4
The pre-pandemic US retail sales were at $525 bn per month. This is hovering at about $625 bn per month.
This resulted in massive Current Account Surplus in EZ/ China
The reopening of economy means Normalization of Services consumption and reduction of Goods consumption.
3/4
This reopening of US will result in reduction of US merchandise trade deficit. Positive for #DXY
The reopening of Emerging Market economies will result in reduction of Current Account Surpluses or increase in Deficit. Positive for Dollar.
4/4
There is CB policy divergence also at play. Hawkish Federal Reserve and Dovish ECB. Again positive for $DXY
The Jackson Hole Conference and September #FOMC will become important for DXY trajectory
It's clear that dips are to be bought in Dollar
Thanks for reading!
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