Ever wondered how MSP for crops is calculated ?

Below is an attempt to present a simplified view, followed by some pertinent questions (just to have better understanding, not taking sides)&

1. Political: UCC likely to see huge protests from non-majority communities, perhaps equal to or more intense than land reforms and agri reforms protests.

2. If Govt stands firm - different matter. If not, yet another capitulation and significant loss of political currency.

3. Also with the likely fallout and necessary dealing with it, certain that no currency will remain to push any further agenda related to pro-Hindu constitutional changes - likely even in 2024+

4. Electoral: Likely massive favour amongst Hindus because somehow UCC is thought of as being good for Hindus.

5. Absolute polarization of non-Hindus guaranteed.

The Farm Law Protests mask the Blatant Inequality of Rural Punjab where Dalit farm labour derisively known as seeri are oppressed.

If these poor labour demand any pay increase, they are boycotted by landlords often with collusion of district administration.

When these labourers start demanding pay increments, the landlords rain down on them with majoritarian might. Any collective action is crushed with village-wide “boycotts.”

The boycotted Dalit farm labour of Punjab are unable to procure sauda, the household supplies. Milk becomes out of reach, so does fodder for the precious livestock. They are barred from using the common shamlatland for grazing the paltry cows and goats which they own.

In village Mahan Singh Wala, this rural apartheid was announced by the gurdwara. In places like Amirke, Faride Wala, Dhotian, Sardarpura, Gandav, Sakohan, Lehra Khana and Khiva Khurd, the labourers either faced violence or had to walk miles to procure the household supplies.

All these boycotts were recorded within a matter of few months in the year 2012.

In fact, over time, this has become a time-tested political strategy in rural Punjab and such boycotts could potentially last for years.

Long Thread on Farmers protests & Agri reforms: What is the protest all about? Who gets impacted & how? Why are protests concentrated in Punjab & Haryana? Are these really farmers or traders losing grip on monopoly? Are farmers being misled? Let numbers do the talking. Here we go

A top-down view of Indian production is in order here. What does India’s agriculture produce in a year? I like the below chart for FY 2015. Now to understand the complexity, we’ll have to work with one crop & dig details. Let’s work with Wheat.

In 2020, India is looking at 105 million tons of Wheat produce vs 94 mn tons in 2015. What does the growth look like? See below the YoY growth of wheat in India. A 105 mn tons in 2020 will bust the chart below. Forget nay-sayers,Indian agriculture is doing great production.

Something is working well when production goes up consistently. However,while supply is great, demand is not growing as much. Look at the wheat consumption in India. As you see, the demand is consistently below supply by ~ 10 mn tons. Who needs this extra 10% wheat? Not Indians.

Can we export? Unlikely! This is where it gets complicated. Let’s see the United States Dept of Agriculture report on agriculture.The European Union, China, and India accounted for a little over 50 percent of the world’s wheat production (762 mn tons) in 2018/19.

So why is the government so focused on Love Jihad in UP when it faces a massive threat on the farm bills? Well, the two are somewhat connected.

Thread

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Chaudhary Charan Singh originally forged what was called the MAJGAR alliance (Muslim, Ahir (Yadav), Jat, Gujjar and Rajput) to advocate middle farmer interests in UP. It was based more on interests than on identity.

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The Muslims and the Jats were the cornerstones of this alliance, which through fractured by various factors including Mandal endured almost up to 2013 riots, and still voted

Enter, the love jihad narrative.

This fascinating article traces exactly how what was until then a South Indian story was spread in Muzzafarnagar by the BJP using pamphlets and party workers in the run up to the Muzaffarnagar riots to polarise.



The 2013 riots and subsequent displacement fractured what was left of the alliance and gave the BJP entry into UP.

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