1. Political: UCC likely to see huge protests from non-majority communities, perhaps equal to or more intense than land reforms and agri reforms protests.

To the office-goers who think the #FarmersProtest is misguided and that the laws are actually good for them. Imagine this: Imagine that the government, without asking you or anyone, passed laws that made it possible for your employer to pay you as little as ten rupees a month.

Now imagine that when you said this was unfair, they told you this is for your own good because you have also been given the freedom to work anywhere in the world, for any company of your choice. They also tell you that if you want, you can even work for individuals.

Now, I am sure this was really easy for you to imagine if you work over the internet. But in order to really understand this, imagine what would happen if you couldn't. What if you had to go to work physically every day and what if your work involved physical movement of goods.

I think you will be extremely pissed. I think you will not like it at all. You have a life that involves commuting to work. You have your expenses sorted out. It is easier for you to deal with your salaried life than to manage ten thousand work engagements spread out all over.

Now imagine that you told the government you don't like this decision and that you will like things to go back to the way they were. Imagine you are ignored completely. Imagine you gather up your fellow office-goers and march to the seat of power to make your voice heard.

The Farm Law Protests mask the Blatant Inequality of Rural Punjab where Dalit farm labour derisively known as seeri are oppressed.

If these poor labour demand any pay increase, they are boycotted by landlords often with collusion of district administration.

When these labourers start demanding pay increments, the landlords rain down on them with majoritarian might. Any collective action is crushed with village-wide “boycotts.”

The boycotted Dalit farm labour of Punjab are unable to procure sauda, the household supplies. Milk becomes out of reach, so does fodder for the precious livestock. They are barred from using the common shamlatland for grazing the paltry cows and goats which they own.

In village Mahan Singh Wala, this rural apartheid was announced by the gurdwara. In places like Amirke, Faride Wala, Dhotian, Sardarpura, Gandav, Sakohan, Lehra Khana and Khiva Khurd, the labourers either faced violence or had to walk miles to procure the household supplies.

All these boycotts were recorded within a matter of few months in the year 2012.

In fact, over time, this has become a time-tested political strategy in rural Punjab and such boycotts could potentially last for years.

Ever wondered how MSP for crops is calculated ?

Below is an attempt to present a simplified view, followed by some pertinent questions (just to have better understanding, not taking sides)&

The MSP is usually based on the recommendations by the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP

This estimation is usually done based on three types of calculation methods. These are A2 method, A2+FL method and C2 method.

As per the A2 method, MSP is set 50% higher than the amount farmer spends on farming including spending on seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, and labour.

C2 method includes A2 factors + economic value of the efforts of family members working on the farm + the value of other spending including rent and other assets. After calculating these, MSP is set at 50% above the derived amount.

A2+FL method is middle ground between the other methods were the MSP is set 50% higher than the amount that derives the amount farmer spend on farming on seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, and labour and the value of labour provided by the family members for agriculture.

Long Thread on Farmers protests & Agri reforms: What is the protest all about? Who gets impacted & how? Why are protests concentrated in Punjab & Haryana? Are these really farmers or traders losing grip on monopoly? Are farmers being misled? Let numbers do the talking. Here we go

A top-down view of Indian production is in order here. What does India’s agriculture produce in a year? I like the below chart for FY 2015. Now to understand the complexity, we’ll have to work with one crop & dig details. Let’s work with Wheat.

In 2020, India is looking at 105 million tons of Wheat produce vs 94 mn tons in 2015. What does the growth look like? See below the YoY growth of wheat in India. A 105 mn tons in 2020 will bust the chart below. Forget nay-sayers,Indian agriculture is doing great production.

Something is working well when production goes up consistently. However,while supply is great, demand is not growing as much. Look at the wheat consumption in India. As you see, the demand is consistently below supply by ~ 10 mn tons. Who needs this extra 10% wheat? Not Indians.

Can we export? Unlikely! This is where it gets complicated. Let’s see the United States Dept of Agriculture report on agriculture.The European Union, China, and India accounted for a little over 50 percent of the world’s wheat production (762 mn tons) in 2018/19.