Nice article from @MESandbu. This from a theme in sellside research before Christmas. Could the pandemic break secular stagnation & deliver a decade of strong growth?

Historical evidence clear - pandemics are usually deflationary, causing lower r*. Big difference with wars, which usually cause r* to rise. Great Jorda et al paper on this https://t.co/f3a9O3Hw3c
Here is their main result
Historically, Wars destroyed both capital stock and labour force. Pandemics killed millions but left capital stock untouched. Covid-19 is neither of these things. Workforce hasn't plunged, capital stock untouched. Comparison with 1920s is a stretch. So precedent for today..
Some more recent evidence based on modern health crises shows only a short-lived boost to GDP, then weaker trend then before. See this Vox column https://t.co/NXZWP3QNlL
And their main result
The only lesson I would draw from 1920s is in the comparison between Germany/UK and France/US. The former went down the austerity route. Far from the "roaring 20s", they had a decade of deflation and unemployment. Politicians should know this by now...but maybe not 😉
So @MESandbu warns about danger of premature monetary policy tightening. But I think CBs are leaning heavily against such an error. They have internalised the 2010s, eff raising their inflation targets. The policy risk is on the fiscal side. Not sure politicians learnt anything
Bear in mind also that the 2020 recession compounded many of the underlying causes of secular stagnation: esp income/wealth inequality, corporate divergence (weak SMEs), monetary policy at lower bound and will leave a legacy of even higher corporate debt ratios

More from Economy

1/ Trend Factor: Any Economic Gains from Using Information over Investment Horizons? (Han, Zhou, Zhu)

"A trend factor using multiple time lengths outperforms ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal, which are based on the three price trends separately."

https://t.co/udkvsdw2Lz


2/ This resembles combining multiple measures of ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal (forecasts determined by walking forward rather than using signs from the full sample).

Unlike normal moving average signals, these are *cross-sectional.* More below:
https://t.co/wkIFLg9jtK


3/ Unsurprisingly, the Trend factor formed by this approach outperforms benchmarks in terms of both Sharpe ratio and tail metrics. It's combining momentum with two factors that are negatively correlated to it AND using multiple specifications.

More here:
https://t.co/x8Tloz3iyL


4/ "Average return and volatility of the trend factor are both higher in recession periods. However, the Sharpe ratio is virtually the same.

"Interestingly, all of the factors still have positive average returns.

"Momentum experiences the greatest increase in volatility."


5/ "In terms of maximum drawdown and the Calmar ratio, the trend factor performs the best.

"The trend factor is correlated with the short-term reversal factor (35%), long-term reversal factor (14%), and the market (20%) but is virtually uncorrelated with the momentum factor."

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