BC ECONOMY
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

$600/wk Unemployment Insurance cannot deliver the benefits of a $600/wk Job Guarantee. From the outset, I should say JG is not a replacement for UI, no matter what you may have heard. I’ll get to this later, but read this long 🧶 w/ that in mind.

 Automatic stabilization: Both $600/wk UI and JG will provide counter cyclical spending. But UI will be weaker. Counter-cyclical stabilization is not just about the absence of income. It is also about the transmission and structure of economy
Firms don't like to hire the unemployed. Mass and long-term unemployment make the problem worse. JG would recover labor markets much faster than a UI of the same amount, both b/c of the higher direct, induced & tertiary employment effects & b/c of private firm hiring preferences.
JG stabilizes spending patterns better. Uncertain job prospects may mean more cautious spending from the unemployed compared to those w/ guaranteed jobs.
UI is temporary, which makes matters worse. Even if it were permanent, it still won't resolve the problem of job scarcity.
Nations who once achieved tight full employment through active labor market policies demonstrate that unemployment does NOT fluctuate the same way it does w/o them. Direct employment, ELR type policies diminish drastically/even eliminate these amplitudes (eg postwar Japan/Sweden)
So a permanent JG won't have to face a large flux of incoming/outgoing workers the same way they come and go out of the unemployment pool. If fluctuations still worry you, the culprit is the private sector. Want smaller fluctuations? Create better/more stable private sector jobs.
Scarcity of jobs: The labor market, even with more generous UI or UBI, will continue to be a cruel game of musical chairs. The invisible hand simply does not create enough employment opportunities for all. We have a visible hand, which we're not using, to make up the difference.
The public sector is vastly under-provisioned/understaffed. Govt functions must be adequately resourced & certain investments - socialized. And, I've insisted, JG is not a substitute for these necessary changes. While it will naturally be smaller w/ them, it will still be needed!
The threat of unemployment is a powerful tool of economic injustice. In my view, when one argues against the JG, they unwittingly argue in favor of all of the racist, sexist, ageist, homophobic & other discriminatory labor market practices that are used to ration scarce jobs.
Scarring effects of unempl are *very* large & extend to family of the unemployed. Most unempl costs are non monetary. Simple income replacement is wholly inadequate (UI or UBI). Whichever way we try to remedy scarring, w/o JG, we won't address the source of these specific probs.
It's not just about income (should be obvious). Survey after survey. A good litmus test: listen to ppl w/ disabilities: highest unempl rates, the worst discrim & barriers to jobs. Yet their demand for jobs is v high & (polls are clear) not b/c they provide income. Same for others
We can learn from European countries w/ generous & long-term UI progs, along w/ strong sectoral bargaining. They've been struggling w/ mass unemployment. Some are looking to tackle it w/ direct employment programs (France, Belgium, Austria). We'll likely see more of these progs.
There's so much & diff kinds of work to do. The idea that JG is "make work" or offers "fake jobs" to unproductive workers is, in my view, also racist (among other -ists). In many 'productivity critiques', there's always an underlying assumptions of who's 'employable' & who isn't.
A variant of this argument is that JG jobs must be inherently inessential, b/c people must come & go quickly (not a hurdle as already explained). Amplitudes will be much lower but ofc there are ways to scale up/slow down activities as needed.
Since there's permanent unemployment now, we should expect that there will be a permanent JG labor force. The flows in-and-out of the program will be like the flows from any other sector mpw, except in an economy operating at full employment. Where's the downside compared to now?
In the JG vision, everyone is employable, everyone can contribute to the public good, everyone has some skill & capacity to improve their own well-being & that of the community. JG aspires to value undervalued work. It also prioritizes participatory decision making & organization
When I say 'care work', I don't just mean caring for children or the elderly, but caring for the environment, communities, & *importantly* - for people. Care that they don't experience the ill effects of unemployment, among other ills. That's part of a care economy.
Ofc any program can be run badly and we've said this over and over. Just b/c public education fails some students doesn't mean that it's not needed. Just b/c public libraries struggle to provide needed community resources, it does not mean that they are not essential. Etc etc.
And as I started this long thread (thanks for reading), UI and JG are not "either/or" policies. My position has always been clear and no US advocate I know of has said the JG would replace UI. Both are voluntary programs.
We've seen how inadequate UI in the US has been during the pandemic. There is an argument for improving the UI system, but the case for the JG does not hinge on that. The safety net is missing the critical "employment" safety net that would target all the problems listed above.
Pandemic checks are not an alternative to JG. Nor vice versa. Apples & oranges. As I wrote in April, guaranteeing employment in a pandemic requires a multifaceted approach: 1) protect jobs/payroll, 2) prevent layoffs/pay cuts, 3) JG for the unemployed. https://t.co/rt6gg3SRoM
If we had the above, there will likely still be a case (tho weaker) for pandemic checks, and for diff reasons. E.g. many women left the labor force to care for children during remote schooling (btw, why didn't dads do the same in equal numbers? UBI isn't gonna kill patriarchy.)
Mainstream econ would call this exodus 'voluntary' but it isn't. It's under duress and brings onerous loss of income. Household care work must be supported. If short-lived, pandemic checks will do. But in general, univ child allowance & other caregiver assistance are better.
Finally, the JG enjoys overwhelming bipartisan support. And there is no just transition to a green future without it. It is why the JG has always been 'green' and is now a cornerstone of the #GND. People want jobs (among other basic preconditions for self determination).
We could of course continue to deny this reality & the validity of these claims, along with the JG's democratizing potential. We know what a world of guaranteed UNemployment looks like.
Or we could choose differently. Thanks for reading. For more: https://t.co/jbpiJDgQ7J

More from Economy

hegelian vs predator \U0001f42c
hegelian vs predator 🐬...
@reachrachelkahn
🚨🚨 THREAD TIME 🚨🚨

let's talk about the differences between income, wealth, and class

tl;dr: income is earned, wealth is bought, and class is inherited

also hi friends, while on the topic of income, this work is my only source of it! times are tough and folks are really struggling, but if you have a couple extra bucks please consider sending a tip my way

💰 venmo rachel-kahn-5
💵 cashapp

INCOME is the amount of money a person makes from labor and investments

so if you work for 2,000 hours and are paid $40,000 in a year, that's income

OR if you have a $1,000,000 stock portfolio with a 5% return rate and cash out $40,000 of it, that's income too (fucked, right?)

WEALTH is the amount of capital you own

that could be owning a house and land worth $150,000

or owning a small business with $150,000 in assets

or owning $150,000 worth of stocks

wealth is the investments that are themselves accruing value

CLASS is about what you stand to inherit

in the united states we use a lot of weird doublespeak to avoid talking about the proletariat, the petit bourgeoisie, and the bourgeoisie directly

proletariat ~ working class
petit bourgeoisie ~ middle class
bourgeoisie ~ upper class
ECONOMY
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/9

Good article. But while growing international criticism and rising trade tensions may have had some impact, as the article suggests, I don’t think they really explain the great reversal in BRI lending of the past few years.

2/9

As I have been writing since 2011, China’s development lending was always likely to follow the pattern of other countries when they first “went out” (e.g. the US in the 1920s, USSR in the 1950s, Japan in the late 1970s). Because of little historical...

3/9

knowledge and no previous experience, an early rapid rise in development lending would be driven mainly by underestimating risk and an overestimation of their own business "success" in making loans, and would of course be further supported by geopolitical ambitions.

4/9

This combination would inevitably lead to bad lending decisions, followed just as inevitably by debt restructuring, loan losses, and a contraction in development lending. In the 1920s, for example, the US set off quite explicitly and aggressively to displace England in...

5/9

Latin America, and American businesses and banks assumed they “understood” Latin America much better than the English did, in spite of the vast English experience there, but their early displacement of British lending only resulted in the huge loan losses of the 1930s.
ECONOMY
Advertisement
Yaneer Bar-Yam
Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is analyzing damage due to COVID and projecting further severe consequences if current policies persist. They state “despite involving short term economic costs, lockdowns may lead to faster economic recovery by containing the virus”

1/


Note: This report doesn’t do a dynamic analysis that makes things much clearer, but it does a thoughtful statistical analysis based upon increasingly available data.

https://t.co/5Xmt8y7lCL

A few more quotes:

2/


“The analysis also finds that lockdowns are powerful instruments to reduce infections, especially when they are introduced early in a country’s epidemic and when they are sufficiently stringent.”

3/


“lockdowns become progressively more effective in reducing COVID-19 cases when they become sufficiently stringent. Mild lockdowns appear instead ineffective at curbing infections.”

4/

“The results suggest that to achieve a given reduction in infections, policymakers may want to opt for stringent lockdowns over a shorter period rather than prolonged mild lockdowns...

5/
ECONOMY
Larry Schweikart
Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
1) Well, also there is this:

For 400 years inflation has NOT been in a "mountain range" of up and down, but rather stair-stepped in giant increases, always associated with major transformations in economic arrangements.
ECONOMY
Patrick Chovanec
Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon RELATIVE to real economic activity. This last part is key.

Also, measuring “the money supply” is a tricky thing, because it lives and breathes with the economy.
ECONOMY

You May Also Like

Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
AGAMA SHASTRA:THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE MARVELS OF HINDU ARCHITECTURE

Agama Shastra is a Sanskrit word that means the manual for worship, temple building, rituals etc in Hindu Tradition.From Sanskrit,agama means handed down by tradition and Shastra means a commentary or treatise.


Therefore, Agama Shastra is a collection of ideas that drafts the rules for worship, temple construction, spirituality and rituals. It has been a guideline for many Hindus from ancient times. It's a collection of Sanskrit, Tamil and Grantha scriptures that mostly contains...


...methods of temple construction, idol creation, philosophical doctrines and meditative practices. It came into being after years of assimiliation and from a variety of sources. Some parts of it are pre-vedic while some are post-vedic.


Hindu Temples are not just temples, they are the pride and identity of Hindus. They are the symbols of Hindu unity and their religious aspirations. Temples are the places of spiritual healing and are our connection with the creator almighty.


Temples are the priceless treasure of our History, Heritage ,Art & Architecture. Architecture that mesmerises and spell bounds you. And Agama Shastra is that very text which is responsible for such a mesmerising and spell binding quality and beauty of our Hindu Temples.
ALL
Simon Wardley #EEA
Simon Wardley #EEA
@swardley
X : Our executive team is concerned that we need to up our game in order to out innovate Amazon.
Me : Do you map?
X : Yes
Me : Like this?
X : No. What's that?
Me : A map of a tea shop.


X : Why is that a map?
Me : Long story, all to do with how space has meaning. To keep it short, maps help people to focus on user needs, the components involved, to communicate missing components and scenario play ideas like staff becoming robots.


Me : They’re also good for measuring and managing capital flow, making investment decisions, removing bias and getting rid of duplication.
X : I don’t see how that helps with innovation?


Me : Well, innovation is a tricky word because we use it to describe many things. If you’re talking about differentiation with the adjacent unexplored then you’re experimenting in the “uncharted” space e.g. immortality with magic provided by the special custom built kettle.


X : That sounds like nonsense.
Me : A lot of what people think will be the next great innovation is nonsense. Actually, most of it is. That’s the nature of the uncharted space, it’s experimental, high risk and generally results in failure.
X : We need more reliable innovation.
TECH
Advertisement
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
THE LESSER KNOWN MAHARANA OF MEWAR:RANA KUMBHA
Kumbalgarh Fort is one of most spectacular sites of India,atop a hill abt 3600ft above sea lvl in the https://t.co/LkjmzzBhE2's second largest wall is surrounding it.A fort wall second only to Great wall of China,still not so famous.


This longest wall of India stretches to almost 36Km and encompasses a few hills, many step wells and over 360 temples and palaces. Birth place of the Great Maharana Pratap, this fort is named after another Great Maharana of Mewar, who is not given his due in the History.


Builder of many architectural marvels like the Kumbhalgarh Fort, an erudite scholar, a patron of arts, music, culture & a great warrior was the Great Maharana Kumbha. Yet we don't know much about him. Let's get to know him a little.


Maharana Kumbha was the undefeated King of Mewar from 1433-1468CE.He never lost any battles &kept Mewar out of the reach of Islamic Invaders till the time he was alive. Born on Makar Sakranti to Maharana Mokal & Saubhagya Devi, Rana Kumbha was only 13 when he ascended the throne.


His father was killed by his own relatives in a political conspiracy. He was a powerful King about 8ft tall &charismatic personality,a hardcore Hindu Rajput who could shed his life for Hindu honour without thinking twice.He was an ardent skillful warrior who never lost a battle.
ALL
Simon DeDeo
Simon DeDeo
@SimonDeDeo
This is a pretty valiant attempt to defend the "Feminist Glaciology" article, which says conventional wisdom is wrong, and this is a solid piece of scholarship. I'll beg to differ, because I think Jeffery, here, is confusing scholarship with "saying things that seem right".


The article is, at heart, deeply weird, even essentialist. Here, for example, is the claim that proposing climate engineering is a "man" thing. Also a "man" thing: attempting to get distance from a topic, approaching it in a disinterested fashion.


Also a "man" thing—physical courage. (I guess, not quite: physical courage "co-constitutes" masculinist glaciology along with nationalism and colonialism.)


There's criticism of a New York Times article that talks about glaciology adventures, which makes a similar point.


At the heart of this chunk is the claim that glaciology excludes women because of a narrative of scientific objectivity and physical adventure. This is a strong claim! It's not enough to say, hey, sure, sounds good. Is it true?
ALL
\uff2c\uff41\uff44\uff59 \uff22\uff4c\uff41\uff5a\uff45\uff53
Ｌａｄｙ Ｂｌａｚｅｓ...
@Lady_Blazes
Oh my Goodness!!!

I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!

Read this thread to the end...I just had an epiphany and my mind is blown. Actually, more than blown. More like OBLITERATED! This is the thing! This is the thing that will blow the entire thing out of the water!


Has this man been concealing his true identity?

Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?

Witness protection to be kept safe until the right moment when all will be revealed?!

Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?


Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??


Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?

Review crumbs on the board re: 'gold'.


#SEALTeam6 Trump re-tweeted this.
GOVERNMENT