BC ECONOMY
Saved by @Alex1Powell

Time for a Scorecard📊and thesis📑updates for purchases done in Feb/Mar 2020. Last review done in late April. How far things have come since then.😯

Not taking any drastic actions, other than few sells in fully valued, slower growth Co.'s.

 Events since then
✔️Co's reporting two Qtrly reports
✔️Accelerating growth for few sectors
✔️Understandable problems for few others
✔️Crazy run-ups & valuations in the last 9 mo's, supported by biz growth in some cases, but mostly due to Monetary factors & Investor enthusiasm...
I usually buy for two scenarios

1⃣Leading Co's within strong secular trends, that also have strong Management Teams and solid Financials (Rev growth, Profitability or improving Margins/FCF prospects, no balance sheet risk...).
These are bought with the intention of holding for the long-term as long as the thesis is intact or getting better. Strongly intend to add along the way. Ex : $ROKU $PINS $TWLO $DOCU $W $NOW $WDAY $NVCR $MTCH in the above table.
2⃣More mature and stable Co.'s but with some growth left (no Financial risk), mainly bought for their current under-valuation, with the intent to sell when the Market or those stocks recover. Ex : $BIP $BUD $VTR $BR $BA in above table.
Occasional unplanned sells like
- $W one lot in late May, as the stock 8X'ed in 2 months after bottoming in March.
- $UBER after 3X (but unfortunately, just before the Vaccine news started coming out) as I was more interested in under-valuation in March, than for long-term.
I'm guilty of usually squeezing bulk of my buys in high Volatility periods.

Few purchases made after this (not recommendations)
$CRM (Dec, $220)
$ZM (Dec, $380)
$DOCU (Nov, $201)
$ETSY (Nov, $120)
$TDOC (Nov, $197)
$MDB (Sep, $209)
$FSLY (Sep, $76)
Updating my favorite investing concept & illustration for high volatility periods.

When good Co.'s are heavily discounted and put for you on a platter, given that you have a Watchlist &
✔️done your research
✔️developed thesis/conviction
✔️not worried about further downside
Every one needs their own toolkit for high volatility periods and bear markets. This is what will
✔️ensure you won't let fear drastically change your long-term plans and strategy
✔️get you thru to the other side
✔️maybe even take advantage of the low prices
Here are few concepts that have helped me in the past high volatility periods.

✔️Ben Graham's Mr Market: He's mostly pretty smart/stable but high VIX (fear/uncertainty) & extremely low VIX (complacency) are when you need to be little contrarian & take advantage of his behavior.
✔️"You make a lot of money (by investing in good Co's) during Bear Markets, You just don't realize it at the time" - Shelby Davis.

✔️When the price of a Stock (in a good Company) falls a lot, it actually becomes less risky (Howard Marks)
✔️Hyperbolic discounting : Fear causing time horizons to shrink, and Market valuing good Co's with bright future prospects as if they're mature/declining businesses. h/t @IntrinsicInv

✔️Cash and Courage during a crash are invaluable (Buffett).
Anyway, this is just a random collection of thoughts about high volatility periods (like March), some results/updates, and some concepts that help during those periods.

/END. 👍

More from Ram Bhupatiraju

Ram Bhupatiraju
Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju
Excellent short summaries of many good investing books. 👏

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

(Some of the pages might open in German. Use the Translate to English option on the

List 👇


Some of my fav summaries from the list.

✔️Quality Investing - Lawrence Cunningham

https://t.co/pmVQFPlWby


✔️The Innovator's Dilemma – Clayton Christensen

https://t.co/VazvMPEE7D


✔️The Little Book That Builds Wealth - Pat Dorsey

https://t.co/sMJspTTQcA
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Ram Bhupatiraju
Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju
One of the best Investing blogs I recently came across. h/t @StableBread 👏

Five of my fav articles⬇️

@dmuthuk @saxena_puru @Gautam__Baid

1⃣On Moats
Network Effect
Intangible Assets
Switching Cost
Economies of Scale
Low Cost Provider
Toll
Cultural

2⃣Crucial Investment Principles You Need to Have
Capital Appreciation
Buy Low, Hold, Sell High
Recognize/Avoid Spec Bubbles
Ignore Noise
Stock Market=Pendulum
Diversify Your investments. Don't overdo it.
DCA
Understand Share Price Value
LT Tax

3⃣How to Read and Analyze Any 10-K Annual Report

Business Summary
Risk Factors
Selected Financial Data
Management's Discussion and Analysis
Financial Statements and Supplementary Data
Notes to Consolidated Financial

4⃣The Beginner's Guide to Dividend Investing

Dividend Yield
Dividend Growth Rate
Dividend Payout Ratio
Ability to Pay Back Debt
Net Debt to EBITDA Ratio
Return on Equity
Credit

5⃣How to Calculate the Intrinsic Value of a Company Like Warren Buffett

Owners Earnings
Growth Rate
Discount Rate
Calculate Intrinsic Value
Scenario Analysis
Margin of
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Ram Bhupatiraju
Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju
Happy 2⃣0⃣2⃣1⃣ to all.🎇

For any Learning machines out there, here are a list of my fav online investing resources. Feel free to add yours.

Let's dive in.
⬇️⬇️⬇️

Investing Services

✔️ @themotleyfool - @TMFStockAdvisor & @TMFRuleBreakers services

✔️ @7investing

✔️ @investing_city
https://t.co/9aUK1Tclw4

✔️ @MorningstarInc Premium

✔️ @SeekingAlpha Marketplaces (Check your area of interest, Free trials, Quality, track record...)

General Finance/Investing

✔️ @morganhousel
https://t.co/f1joTRaG55

✔️ @dollarsanddata
https://t.co/Mj1owkzRc8

✔️ @awealthofcs
https://t.co/y81KHfh8cn

✔️ @iancassel
https://t.co/KEMTBHa8Qk

✔️ @InvestorAmnesia
https://t.co/zFL3H2dk6s

✔️

Tech focused

✔️ @stratechery
https://t.co/VsNwRStY9C

✔️ @bgurley
https://t.co/NKXGtaB6HQ

✔️ @CBinsights
https://t.co/H77hNp2X5R

✔️ @benedictevans
https://t.co/nyOlasCY1o

✔️

Tech Deep dives

✔️ @StackInvesting
https://t.co/WQ1yBYzT2m

✔️ @hhhypergrowth
https://t.co/kcLKITRLz1

✔️ @Beth_Kindig
https://t.co/CjhLRdP7Rh

✔️ @SeifelCapital
https://t.co/CXXG5PY0xX

✔️ @borrowed_ideas
MACHINE LEARNING , ALL
Ram Bhupatiraju
Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju
Excellent 3 part series on the lessons complied from many Value Investing Books.👏

Part 1⃣: The Mindset
✔️Think like an owner
✔️Patience is the greatest virtue
✔️Mr. Market – your friend, others’ enemy
✔️Use your Rationality, not your

Part 2⃣:The Methodology
✔️Margin of safety and the quest for bargains
✔️A risk-averse philosophy and strategy
✔️Uncertainty is not risk
✔️The Dhandho Way: Heads, I win; tails, I don’t lose

Part 3⃣: The Hunt
✔️The perfect business is not necessarily a sound investment
✔️The quantitative & qualitative assessment
✔️The quest for gold (good prices for good Businesses)
✔️Fish where the fish are
✔️Be conservative & know your circle of

Value Investing is too often portrayed as just a hunt for statistical bargains. It encompasses a lot more that long-term investors can learn too - quest for quality, using the appropriate Valuation methods, patience, contrarianism, risk awareness, Volatility...
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Ram Bhupatiraju
Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju
Insights from Philip Fisher. One of the best docs I came across for individual investors.

Phenomenal effort by @SiddharthVoraPL @PLIndiaOnline 👏👏

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid @saxena_puru

https://t.co/K19gWk9TFO


Philip Fisher's 15 points, simplified. ⬇️


His Investment strategy and Search strategy. ⬇️

Full scale scuttlebutt is not possible for individual investors (lack of time, resources, contacts), but with efficient search & communication online (tuning out the noise), there are still some ways to do good research.


Good sequence of steps to filter from a wider universe of companies to the few promising ones that meet the criteria. ⬇️


Excellent Checklist for Business, Management and Financial characteristics. ⬇️
EQUITY

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I keep hearing people complain that the ‘mainstream media’ does not understand economics and that we’re talked down to as if everything must be explained as if the economy is a household. In this thread I explain all you (and they) need to know. Economics in one thread then....

Very few people seem to understand how money is created. Mainly that’s because when they’re told it seems so simple that they can’t believe something that’s so important that we’re willing to pay a lot to get it is created so easily. This thread explains how money is created.

What this thread also explains is that if we understand money we can completely reimagine how the economy really works, which is the pathway to rebuilding from the mess we are in. Which makes this a pretty big deal. I make no apology for its length as a result.

Let’s start at the very beginning. A person goes into a bank and asks for a £1,000 loan. The bank checks them out, and agrees. And that is all that it takes to create new money. Money is just a promise to pay. That simple exchange of promises is all it takes to create it.

Most people think there must be something that backs up the value of money. Gold, most likely. But there isn’t. Money is just a promise to pay, and has been for almost 50 years now. Mutual promises to pay creates all the money we have.
ECONOMY
FARTCRAFT
FARTCRAFT
@caylenb
has anyone covering the Wall Street GME reaping and sowing gone into the fact that a lot of the GameStop and directly associated trades have been largely amplified by social listening powered mega firms doing machine learning automated trades because the “idea” of GME is popular?

like I thought this was a thing investor people & press just knew & instead it’s all just focused on the message of redditors clowning short sellers and not “the computers saw the infinite monkeys on infinite typewriters and decided That Would Be A Cool Thing To Emulate” for $$$

for those new: finance social listening is a marketing “science” that involves advanced web & social network data collectors scraping everything for nuance on companies, purchasing behavior & language, investor & finance sentiment, etc & using it to make billions of trades for $$

Musk & his core investor clique is notorious for doing this as are some other big hedge firms & finance firms - you take the raw off Bloomberg Terminal, Superdata, public social networks and headlines etc etc, machine learning the fuck out of it, collect money. A hype machine.

This has been going on for about 8 years but only got popular & competitive in the past 2, when firms realized the machines could do a better job with these data flows in setting up short term shorts & holds vs people - & they could also “game” media to effect other hype machines
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Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian
@EPBResearch
Diminishing Marginal Returns

The productivity of our debt is collapsing and that is creating a major problem.

The problem is here now, and not in the future.

Here is why:

1)


Charted below is the increase in total debt and the increase in nominal GDP in the 8 quarters before each of the last six recessions.

In other words, how much did debt increase, and how much did GDP increase in the final two years of each economic expansion?

2)


As the chart shows, it is taking a larger amount of debt to increase GDP.

3)


Graphed another way, leading up to the 1980 recession it took about 1.94 dollars of debt to boost GDP by 1 dollar.

Leading up to the COVID recession saw debt increase nearly 6 dollars for each 1 dollar of GDP growth.

4)


Flipping the ratio shows the decline in the utility of debt.

We are only generating about 15-20 cents of growth for each dollar of debt.

This becomes a larger problem when we think about "growth rates" instead of nominal dollars.

5)
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Moondeer
Moondeer
@kelleydawg
Wait … so … how much worse could the pandemic response and unprecedented death rate get?

How much farther shall our economy crater?

I wonder what it will feel like to get better.

I wonder what it will be like for things to get better after being arguably as bad as they have ever been.

Wait … sooo … were things this bad in 2016?

Wait … things were good? After eight years under a democratic administration?

Huh.

I wonder how all those falsehoods will play after things start to get better.

I wonder how many full fledged COVID deniers will finally encounter this deadly pandemic.

I wonder if red states will continue to suffer needlessly under Trumpian COVID policies.

I wonder what the recovering blue states will look like from those red states.

I wonder how much aid these red states will require from said blue states.

And I wonder what it will feel like to those red state constituents when the aid forced upon them makes things a bit better?
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@BenjaminNorton
Priyamvada Gopal is part of a class of elite academics in the imperial core who teach the ruling class, and use woke radlib rhetoric to justify current Western imperial aggression.

She echoes propaganda against Syria, Iran, and China and is silent about Venezuela, Nicaragua, etc


Anti-anti-imperialist Cambridge University Professor @PriyamvadaGopal smears opponents of the Western neocolonial war on Syria as "Assadists"

Would she ever call liberal imperialist Obama a "blood-soaked cretin"? He has exponentially more blood on


The CIA spent over a billion dollars per year arming and training "rebels" who massacred and ethnically cleansed Syrian civilians, especially religious minorities.

But anti-anti-imperialist @PriyamvadaGopal insists these CIA-backed contras are


This was elite anti-anti-imperialist Cambridge University gatekeeper @PriyamvadaGopal's response right after colonial powers the US, UK, and France bombed Syria in April 2018 on bogus lies that have since been


Of course anti-anti-imperialist Cambridge Professor @PriyamvadaGopal's is also a supporter of the neoliberal imperialist European Union -- one of the key institutions of European necolonialism
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Or find options that move 1,000% in a single day/week?🤯

I made a thread going over exactly how I find these stocks BEFORE they take off 🚀
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So, let's start with the software I use…

Finviz!! Finviz is a free website that I use to scan for stocks.

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Simply change:
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@eriktorenberg
1/“What would need to be true for you to….X”

Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?

A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:


2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to

- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal

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Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.

Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.

4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?

To get clarity.

You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.

It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.

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Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.
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Shaun Russell
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"I really want to break into Product Management"

make products.

"If only someone would tell me how I can get a startup to notice me."

Make Products.

"I guess it's impossible and I'll never break into the industry."

MAKE PRODUCTS.

Courtesy of @edbrisson's wonderful thread on breaking into comics – https://t.co/TgNblNSCBj – here is why the same applies to Product Management, too.


There is no better way of learning the craft of product, or proving your potential to employers, than just doing it.

You do not need anybody's permission. We don't have diplomas, nor doctorates. We can barely agree on a single standard of what a Product Manager is supposed to do.

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Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
MEENAKSHI AMMAN, MADURAI (TN)
#bharatmandir #navratri2021

A paadal Petra sthalam where Shiva took the form of Sundareswarar (the handsome one) and married Devi Parvati (Meenakshi).
Devi is also known by the name Angayarkanni (mother with the beautiful fish eyes).
@GunduHuDuGa


Devi Meenakshi emerged from yagna fire as a 3 year old girl when Pandyan King Malayadwaja and Kanchanamalai were praying for a child.
It is said that Devi was born with three breasts and there was a prophesy that her superfluous breast would melt away when she met her husband.


Devi ruled over Madurai and captured Indralok. She went on to capture Kailasha. When she saw Shiva, her 3rd breast disappeared and she realised that Shiva would be her consort.
The divine marriage was attended by all Devas and Sri Vishnu (as her brother) gave her hand to Shiva.


It is said that Indra found a swayambhu lingam at Kadamba Vanam. He placed it in Madurai where the kshetram stands. Here, Shiva is seen on the vehicle of Indra.
The Golden Lotus Tank is said to be the place where a golden lotus blossomed for the puja performed by Indra.


The Meenakshi Thirukalyanam festival is celebrated in the Chithirai month to mark the divine marriage of Meenakshi Amman. The festival includes a procession where Meenakshi and Sundareshwara travel in a chariot and Sri Vishnu gives away his sister in marriage to Shiva.
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Anshul Pandey
@Anshulspiritual
SHAKTA DHARMA AND THEIR ACHARYAS

Śhākta or Shakti or Devi pooja is not a new upasana. It is being carried out right from the time of Vedic period. Puran's tell us that Rishi Vashishth would worship Tara devi. Parshuram ji worshipped Tripura devi,


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Then we find that in the Harrappan excavations many figurines depicting Shakti were found. So in that age too, which was supposedly an urban city shakti was being worshipped. So naturally this tradition would be prevalent in rural areas too.

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