BC ECONOMY
Saved by @Alex1Powell

1/ Since "liquidity" has been the buzzword these days, here's an anecdote and a powerful lesson from history about printing unlimited amounts of money. Story time. #fintwit

 2/ Our story begins with Mansa Musa or Musa I of Mali, an African king who consistently figures in the list of richest people in the world (Inflation-adjusted). One of his given names was 'Lord of the (Gold) Mines of Wangara'. Lest we forget, Gold was the 'Money' in those days.
3/ One fine day in 1324, Musa decided to go on a pilgrimage to Mecca. Of course, it was easier said than done. Mecca was ~8,500 Kms away from Timbuktu, Mali. Ultimately he did make that journey and it has been recorded in the script "The Chronicles of the Seeker" by Mahmud Kati.
4/ Famously, he took a ton of 'money' (Gold) with him to aid in his journey (Well in his defense, it was ~8,500 Kms). About 60,000 laborers and soldiers carried 2 Kgs each and their camels carried 13 Kgs each, bringing the tally to an estimated ~1,30,000 Kgs of Gold.
5/ Being a generous King, he donated Gold left and right to every poor person he saw on the way. Regions of Cairo, Medina and Mecca became instantly 'rich'. The estimated donation is ~32,000 Kgs of Gold or ~$2 Billion in today's estimate.
6/ Do you think Musa's kind-hearted generousness made Cairo, Medina and Mecca flourish? That would be the perfect fairy-tale ending, but Economics and the Law of Unintended Consequences beg to differ. Musa caused a severe hyperinflation in these parts.
7/ Since everyone became 'rich' overnight, they refused to work unless they're paid a hefty salary. So business owners had no choice but to increase prices to support wages. Over a year of two, high prices drained people off their Gold and they became poorer than before.
8/ As Musa returned from his pilgrimage, he saw the damage he'd caused. He tried to remedy the situation, but it was too late. Regions of Cairo, Medina and Mecca would continue to be devastated for years to come.
9/ If you think this story is unrealistic, history repeated itself as recently as in 2006-08. The Zimbabwean government printed gobs of money starting in 2005. This caused, you guessed it, a hyperinflation. At the peak, the inflation was 98%, meaning prices DOUBLED every day.
10/ You might also be aware of the ridiculous denominations of currencies in Zimbabwe in 2008. At the same time this was being printed, meat for daily consumption was priced at ~Z$ 200 Million. Now these kinds of notes sell on eBay, in case you're interested.
11-END/ George Gobel, the Standup Comedian, once said "If inflation continues to soar, you're going to have to work like a dog just to live like one." That's Dark Humor, but we're already in the midst of excess liquidity. What will follow this isn't too difficult to guess.

More from Dinesh Sairam

Dinesh Sairam
Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam
This thread is for investors or those who are interested in CDSL as an investment. Often the central reason quoted for an investment here is the gush of FCF the business produces and some float money also to boot. But this argument ignores a central problem as well. (1/11)

I completely agree that CDSL is a business that produces ample amount of Free Cash. So, it begs the question: "What are they doing with all that cash?" Generally, firms can utilize the cash on their books in 4 ways: Dividends, Acquisitions, Capex/Investments and Buybacks. (2/11)

CDSL does have a Dividend Payout Ratio of ~35-40%. But Dividends are the least efficient way of utilizing cash, due to the Triple Taxation on Dividends. More

Handled well, Inorganic Growth is so lucrative that some companies build their business models around acquisitions (Say, MSSL or Cyient). However, CDSL literally CAN'T be one such company. Read 7 (c) of the below regulatory document to know more:

https://t.co/071lwnnwJ4

(4/11)


CDSL can also reinvest cash into their own business, like most companies do. But CDSL (And most Exchanges) have little need for Capex/Reinvestment. CDSL's IPO came in at Rs. 523.99 Crores. Two years in, the Cash and Investments on their books stands at Rs. 650 Crores. (5/11)
IDEAS
Dinesh Sairam
Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam
@abhishec_s @Sanjay__Bakshi The most rational course of action is to buy below your expected value, hold when it's between your expected value and overvalued zone and sell above overvalued zone (No in-betweens or holding extra cash).

But there are many impediments in executing each step.
WISE INVESTING
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Dinesh Sairam
Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam
@Gautam__Baid He laid down very similar principles a decade ago in his 1976 letter (Source: https://t.co/6Z5v0qEaIg)

What's amazing is how consistent he's been in following his philosophy even after nearly 5
VALUATION
Dinesh Sairam
Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam
1/ There are a ton of books about Financial & Fundamental Analysis, Scuttlebutt and Technical Analysis. But there aren't many books 'taking risk'.

Among the few that exist, 'Zurich Axioms', written in 1985, is the best. Here are my key takeaways from the book.


2/ A bit about Max Gunther's (The Author) background. He was an Anglo-American journalist and writer, who wrote 26 Books.

His father, Franz Heinrich, was the New York Head of Schweizerischer Bankverein, which later merged into the famous Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS).

3/ The 'Zurich Axioms' were a set of unwritten rules followed by a informal group of Swiss Bankers and Traders who used to socialize around Wall Street after World War II. Mr. Heinrich was one of the founding members.

Max Gunter formalied these 'Axioms' by writing about them.

4/ There are 12 'Major Axioms' and 16 'Minor Axioms' (Corollary to the Major Axioms) in the book.

But remember, this is MY key takeaways from the book and not an exact summary. So you might find quotes, phrases and links inserted here and there by me (Not from the Author).

5/ Axiom #1: In order to earn returns, you must take risk. Risk will make you worry.

Risk-taking and worrying go hand-in-hand. If you're not worried about an investment, you're not taking risk.

Spend half your energy towards earning an income and the rest towards speculation.
BOOKS , FINANCE
Dinesh Sairam
Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam
1/ Howard Marks once said that before buying an asset, above anything, he wants to know “the amount of optimism that’s in the price.”

All investors can do this with a handy tool: The Reverse DCF.

I'll also leave a download link to my compact DCF Model at the end of this thread.

2/ We all know a regular DCF. But's what a "Reverse DCF"?

If we consider that a DCF is a Linear Equation, we could say the 'X' (The unknown variable) is the Intrinsic Value.

In a Reverse DCF, we start with the Market Price and try to find some other variable, say Sales Growth.


3/ Let's start by taking an example: VST Industries, a Cigarette-maker based in India.

I valued them on my blog a while ago. I'll be retaining the old assumptions, but using the latest financials.

So please note that the Valuation isn't accurate

4/ This is a "Regular DCF" of VST Industries. The Assumptions I've made indicate an Overvaluation.

The Intrinsic Value is Rs. 3,012, but the Market Price is Rs. 3,492.

Let's not dwell on whether this is correct, since we discussed earlier that this isn't an accurate Valuation.


5/ If we want to do a "Reverse DCF" instead, we need to pick a different variable to 'find'. Say, I will pick the Sales Growth numbers.

I will now remove the Sales Growth numbers from the Model and assume that Sales Growth is the same across the years for ease of calculation.
VALUATION

More from Economy

hegelian vs predator \U0001f42c
hegelian vs predator 🐬...
@reachrachelkahn
🚨🚨 THREAD TIME 🚨🚨

let's talk about the differences between income, wealth, and class

tl;dr: income is earned, wealth is bought, and class is inherited

also hi friends, while on the topic of income, this work is my only source of it! times are tough and folks are really struggling, but if you have a couple extra bucks please consider sending a tip my way

💰 venmo rachel-kahn-5
💵 cashapp

INCOME is the amount of money a person makes from labor and investments

so if you work for 2,000 hours and are paid $40,000 in a year, that's income

OR if you have a $1,000,000 stock portfolio with a 5% return rate and cash out $40,000 of it, that's income too (fucked, right?)

WEALTH is the amount of capital you own

that could be owning a house and land worth $150,000

or owning a small business with $150,000 in assets

or owning $150,000 worth of stocks

wealth is the investments that are themselves accruing value

CLASS is about what you stand to inherit

in the united states we use a lot of weird doublespeak to avoid talking about the proletariat, the petit bourgeoisie, and the bourgeoisie directly

proletariat ~ working class
petit bourgeoisie ~ middle class
bourgeoisie ~ upper class
ECONOMY
:Billy-Don :I-AM
:Billy-Don :I-AM
@ValiantThor12
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3) THE GALACTICS ON THE SURFACE OF PLANET EARTH!
THE DATA HEREIN IS RECEIVED AND TRANSMITTED FROM THE 5D LEVEL! THIS MESSAGE IS INTENDED ONLY FOR THE STARSEEDS OF EARTH!
GREAT ONES,
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THE COSMIC GATES WILL BE FULLY OPENED ON 12/21/20 ALLOWING POWERFUL STREAMS OF COSMIC LIGHT TO ENTER EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE, UPGRADING ALL SENTIENT
ECONOMY
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
@paulgp
My friend @itsafronomics wanted to know the breakdown of student debt by income, so I pulled data from the SCF.

Student debt is more concentrated amongst high earners, but disproportionately amongst Black borrowers. The plot below plots the average within Income Quartiles.
1/n


But those are the averages. What's the share that's above 10k? (This is the Biden current cutoff for debt forgiveness, so a useful benchmark).

For comparison, 20% of white Americans have student debt, and 31% of Black Americans.


Let's contrast that with say, above 20k. I was surprised at how high the share remains.


When we get to 50k of student debt, or more, we see it's only about 5% of the US, and around 8% of Black Americans. Strikingly, it's a huge share of high income Black Americans (this is a known fact in the education literature, I believe).


So what does this look like put together? Overall, we see a higher share of Americans with debt above 10k, and 20k. We would cover a decent amount with 10k, but miss Black Americans especially.
ECONOMY
Jason Furman
Jason Furman
@jasonfurman
The argument for deficits & debt raising interest rates in the US is not increased credit risk, it is that interest rates are a function of economic fundamentals, flows & policy. Deficits/debt change those.

I can't tell if I'm agreeing or disagreeing with @jc_econ.


Increasing government spending or reducing taxes increases demand (or reduces saving). This raises the price of loanable funds or the interest rate.

In a dynamic context, more demand means a stronger economy, the central bank raises interest rates sooner, and long rates rise.

(As an aside, we are not close to the United States needing to worry about credit risk and the risks are more overstated than understated in most other advanced economies too. But credit risk is not always & everywhere irrelevant, just look at the UK in 1976 or Canada in 1994.)

Interest rates have fallen over the last 20 yrs while debt has risen. This does not necessarily mean that debt rising causes interest rates to fall. It could also mean that other things have happened at he same time that pushed down interest rates more than debt pushed them up.

The suspects for these "other things" include slower productivity growth, slower popln growth, higher inequality, less investment, etc. All of which either increase the supply of saving or reduce the demand for investment, reducing the equilibrium interest rate.
ECONOMY
micky finn
micky finn
@critpraxis
For those who haven’t heard, we are witnessing a globally coordinated plan (conspiracy) to use fear and safety as cover for a #GreatReset of the world economy & society. This is a planned and internationally coordinated strategy by the most powerful global elites-the ruling class

The aim of the global ruling class is to refashion global capitalism into what we can call neo-feudalist technocratic bio-fascism-or ‘global fascism’ for short.

The aim is for remaining liberal democratic rights and freedoms that have been in place at least formally in the ‘west’ for the last few hundred years to be eroded and withdrawn.

There’s lots of different terminology and branding, for example: Great Reset, Fourth Industrial Revolution, Technocracy. The main aim of this plan is the concentration of power over capital, wealth, people and nature in the hands of a the very largest corporations and monopolies.

This plan for a new phase of global capitalism is enabled by national states and governments, international organisations & quangos (EU, UN, NATO, IMF, WTO, WHO, Gates, GAVI). With no clear lines between state and non-state actors, this is also a form of global corporatism.
ECONOMY

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Ok, it's high time to look at the REAL effects of Brexit. As the Tories implode & Labour sits on its hands, companies are executing contingency plans, shifting jobs & assets, slashing investments, or redomiciling (accounting exercise). Happening NOW, not in a fantasy future. 1/95

Barden Corporation is closing down its Plymouth factory after 51 years, putting 400 jobs at risk, as its parent company Schaeffler shifts production to various sites outside the UK due to Brexit.

8 health providers have warned of medicine shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit: "we do not believe that the current medicine supply plans will suffice, and we will have widespread shortages if we do not respond urgently."

Pfizer - $100 million on Brexit prep: "Pfizer’s preparations are well advanced to make the changes necessary to meet EU legal requirements after the U.K. is no longer a member state, especially in the regulatory, manufacturing and supply chain areas."

The Government has spent £4.2 billion pounds on Brexit preparations (£2.2 billion in previous Budgets, plus an additional £2 billion in the most recent Budget.)
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WEAPONS OF MAHADEV

Sarvaripati Shiva is one of the most fearsome manifestations of Mahadev. Assigned with destroying all of the universes at the end of time, Shiva is one of the most fearsome warriors. He is the Mrityunjaya.
Here are some weapons associated with him:


TRISHULA: the 3 pointed blades denote creation, maintenance, and destruction or the 3 Kalas – Past, Present and Future. They also represent 3 Gunas – Sattva, Rajas and Tamas).
Shiva’s trishul can only be stopped by Shiva himself.
@onlyonenetra @DetheEsha


Trishul is also said to represent Ida, Pingala, and Sushumna. These are the three basic nadis – the left, the right and the central – in the pranamaya kosha, or the energy body of the human system.
@iamkamyabuch @unever_followme


PARASHU: axe with 4 cutting edges which Shiva gave to Parashurama. In his anger, Parashurama used the parashu to get rid of the all the Earth’s tyrannical kshatriya caste twenty-one times over.
@harshasherni


CHANDRAHASA SWORD: The divine sword Chandrahasa literally means ‘the laughter of the moon’. Ravana gave this sword to Indrajit on different occasions especially to fight against Devas.
GIRISH: A special sword of Shiva with unique characteristics.
ALL
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Vibhor Varshney
Vibhor Varshney
@nakulvibhor
On the occasion of youtube 20k and Twitter 70k members

A small tribute/gift to members

Screeners

technical screeners - intraday and positional both

before proceeding - i have helped you , can i ask you so that it can help someone else too

thank you

positional one

run - find #stock - draw chart - find levels

1- Stocks closing daily 2% up from 5 days
https://t.co/gTZrYY3Nht

2- Weekly breakout
https://t.co/1f4ahEolYB

3- Breakouts in short term
https://t.co/BI4h0CdgO2

4- Bullish from last 5

intraday screeners

5- 15 minute Stock Breakouts
https://t.co/9eAo82iuNv

6- Intraday Buying seen in the past 15 minutes
https://t.co/XqAJKhLB5G

7- Stocks trading near day's high on 5 min chart with volume BO intraday
https://t.co/flHmm6QXmo

Thank you
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Naval
Naval
@naval
How to Get Rich (without getting lucky):

Seek wealth, not money or status. Wealth is having assets that earn while you sleep. Money is how we transfer time and wealth. Status is your place in the social hierarchy.

Understand that ethical wealth creation is possible. If you secretly despise wealth, it will elude you.

Ignore people playing status games. They gain status by attacking people playing wealth creation games.

You’re not going to get rich renting out your time. You must own equity - a piece of a business - to gain your financial freedom.
LIFE , STARTUPS , NAVAL1
Anu Satheesh
Anu Satheesh
@AnuSatheesh5
Krishna and the False Vasudeva
#story

Paundraka Vasudeva was a King mentioned in Bhagavatha Purana. He was friend of Jarasandha, the king of Magadha. He believed that he is Vasudeva Krishna.
Once Paundraka Vasudeva received a letter from Shishupala, stating that he wanted


protection from Krishna, because it was Rukmini's wedding and Shishupala thought Krishna would take away Rukmini.

Paundraka Vasudeva agreed and went to Vidarbha, the Kingdom of Shishupala, but failed to provide protection as Krishna took Rukmini away. Paundraka Vasudeva was


feeling sad. His Minister's cheered him.
They said that Paundraka Vasudeva was the real Vasudeva and Krishna is a cheater. Everyone started to believe this and soon Paundraka Vasudeva soon started to taunt Krishna by saying that Krishna was a cheater.
Paundraka Vasudeva then


challenged Krishna to a war and Krishna said that he would give Paundraka his Chakra and Gadha. Paundraka suspected some foul play and went to King of Kashi for his protection. In battlefield, Krishna came in front of Paundraka, and said that he would throw his Chakra and Gadha


to him. But, Krishna's throw was perfect that the Gadha hurled him to the Ground and the Chakra killed him.
Krishna soon killed king of Kashi with an arrow and his head went flying to Kashi.
Thus Victorious Krishna was recieved by people of Dwaraka.
Hare Krishna 🙏🕉🙏
ALL