BC ECONOMY
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

The argument for deficits & debt raising interest rates in the US is not increased credit risk, it is that interest rates are a function of economic fundamentals, flows & policy. Deficits/debt change those.

I can't tell if I'm agreeing or disagreeing with @jc_econ.

 Increasing government spending or reducing taxes increases demand (or reduces saving). This raises the price of loanable funds or the interest rate.

In a dynamic context, more demand means a stronger economy, the central bank raises interest rates sooner, and long rates rise.
(As an aside, we are not close to the United States needing to worry about credit risk and the risks are more overstated than understated in most other advanced economies too. But credit risk is not always & everywhere irrelevant, just look at the UK in 1976 or Canada in 1994.)
Interest rates have fallen over the last 20 yrs while debt has risen. This does not necessarily mean that debt rising causes interest rates to fall. It could also mean that other things have happened at he same time that pushed down interest rates more than debt pushed them up.
The suspects for these "other things" include slower productivity growth, slower popln growth, higher inequality, less investment, etc. All of which either increase the supply of saving or reduce the demand for investment, reducing the equilibrium interest rate.
When interest rates are at zero and expected to be there for a while then fiscal expansions will not raise interest rates very much if at all. And if it raise inflation/expected growth then fiscal expansions are more likely to crowd in investment instead of crowding them out.
Moreover, interest rates are likely to be low even after the economy recovers for all of the structural reasons that made them very low even before the pandemic crisis hit (the real 10-year rate rate was negative in February). If fiscal policy can raise rates that would be good.
Higher interest rates would create more scope for monetary policy to cut rates when it needs to, reduce risk taking in financial markets and help the soundness of the banking system.
We have much more fiscal space than many think but it is not infinite because if you raise debt way too much r - g won't stay negative.

We still need some prioritization. If I thought r - g would be negative forever regardless of debt then why raise the top rate from 37 to 39.6?
In sum: The argument for expansionary fiscal policy now is that it it is unlikely to drive up interest rates & could crowd in investment.

An argument for not pivoting to fiscal consolidation is that higher rates are more of a plus not a minus.

Do also need to prioritize.

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@yaneerbaryam
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is analyzing damage due to COVID and projecting further severe consequences if current policies persist. They state “despite involving short term economic costs, lockdowns may lead to faster economic recovery by containing the virus”

1/


Note: This report doesn’t do a dynamic analysis that makes things much clearer, but it does a thoughtful statistical analysis based upon increasingly available data.

https://t.co/5Xmt8y7lCL

A few more quotes:

2/


“The analysis also finds that lockdowns are powerful instruments to reduce infections, especially when they are introduced early in a country’s epidemic and when they are sufficiently stringent.”

3/


“lockdowns become progressively more effective in reducing COVID-19 cases when they become sufficiently stringent. Mild lockdowns appear instead ineffective at curbing infections.”

4/

“The results suggest that to achieve a given reduction in infections, policymakers may want to opt for stringent lockdowns over a shorter period rather than prolonged mild lockdowns...

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\uc2e0\ub150\uc758\uc0ac\ub098\uc774
신념의사나이...
@Belposto_korea
Little history of QFS

Let’s put all this Woo Woo stuff aside and find out what the QFS has been doing over the last two years or so. It has been very busy.

Those involved in using this computer have learned how to “connect” into the archaic Central Bank computer(s) system. Through the SWIFT transfer protocol used by the Central Banks (CB),/2

the QFS has obtained account information from every Tier 1 bank account in every bank in the world that is linked to the SWIFT transfer system./3

It has also obtained info for 2nd tier and 3rd tier banks that don’t have their own SWIFT transfer codes and use Tier 1 banks to service their customer’s transfer requests. Tier 2 &3 banks have accounts in Tier 1 banks that are used to transfer money./4

With this information, the QFS was integrated into the SWIFT transfer system and programmed it to where each transfer is channeled through the QFS to record transfer data. The data is then inserted back into the SWIFT system to complete the transfer to the intended bank account.5
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FARTCRAFT
FARTCRAFT
@caylenb
has anyone covering the Wall Street GME reaping and sowing gone into the fact that a lot of the GameStop and directly associated trades have been largely amplified by social listening powered mega firms doing machine learning automated trades because the “idea” of GME is popular?

like I thought this was a thing investor people & press just knew & instead it’s all just focused on the message of redditors clowning short sellers and not “the computers saw the infinite monkeys on infinite typewriters and decided That Would Be A Cool Thing To Emulate” for $$$

for those new: finance social listening is a marketing “science” that involves advanced web & social network data collectors scraping everything for nuance on companies, purchasing behavior & language, investor & finance sentiment, etc & using it to make billions of trades for $$

Musk & his core investor clique is notorious for doing this as are some other big hedge firms & finance firms - you take the raw off Bloomberg Terminal, Superdata, public social networks and headlines etc etc, machine learning the fuck out of it, collect money. A hype machine.

This has been going on for about 8 years but only got popular & competitive in the past 2, when firms realized the machines could do a better job with these data flows in setting up short term shorts & holds vs people - & they could also “game” media to effect other hype machines
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Faith
Faith
@Sheffieldfaith
Took the 6 yo old out for some local lock down exercise on his bike. Park too busy to cycle through, so we did a loop on local roads because that's the only other option without driving somewhere. Here's how it went (a thread) @CycleSheffield @CyclewalkSCR @DameSarahStorey

The 6yo doesnt cycle in a complete straight line yet so one of us cycles abreast of him just in case. Lots of drivers waited patiently for a long time before overtaking slowly and safely. Thank you for this. Sudden accelerating engines make the 6yo less likely to stay straight.

Some drivers, sadly not an insignificant number, decided they needed to get past more quickly and more slowly than was safe. Where were they all going to and why the need to be so impatient? It's not like there is anything to get to quickly at the moment.

Drivers coming the other way were generally the biggest threat. The roads were double parked with people using the park (worst I have have ever seen) resulting in narrow road space. Drivers did not slow down to adjust to this or to us cycling alongside the 6yo.

One driver overtaking a parked car had to encroach on to our side of the road. Instead of waiting he pushed out and shook his head at us. Did he think we shouldn't be on the road with a small child or did he just think he had priority? Either way he was wrong.
ECONOMY
Timoth\xe9e Parrique
Timothée Parrique
@timparrique
What a year: 203 essays about degrowth in English since the beginning of March. Here is a selection of some of my favourites. Thank you @fem_degrowth, @beth_stratford, @thedownshifters, @corbinkbarthold, @degrowth_info for these brilliant texts.

THREAD/

https://t.co/1lFaJM52RX

https://t.co/i5HOfZ19r7

https://t.co/DuPSrrqnzz

https://t.co/0ANveWdvFO
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(THREAD) Pre-election Russia collusion may take down Trump. It's equally possible the Trumps' pre- and post-election collusion with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel will do it—a course of collusion also connected to the Kremlin. I explain here. I hope you'll read on and retweet.


1/ I must stress how unbelievably complex the "Grand Bargain" theory of the Trump-Russia case is—a different thing from saying it's not substantiated. It's substantiated in *almost every single particular*—it just *also* happens to be very confusing. Not byzantine—just confusing.

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3/ The best way to get Russia to stop supporting Iran—or reduce support—was/is to drop all sanctions on Russia over its 2014 annexation of Crimea, as that'd be worth *trillions* to the Kremlin over the next decade. Everyone knew that Clinton wouldn't do this—and that Trump would.

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Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
Bhoga Lakshmi Narasimha Swamy Temple
#Devarayanadurga
#Karnatakatemples 🚩

Bhoga Yoga Narasimha Swamy Temple, Devarayanadurga is located near Tumkur of Karnataka. There are two temples are here for Narasimha Swamy, one is at the base of the hill which is Bhoga Narasimhar and 👇


the other on the top of  hill which is Yoga Narasimhar.

Bhoga Narasimha swamy Temple Prathista is said to be done by Maharshi Durvasa who did tapasya here. While doing tapasya Muni wished to bath in river Ganga and decided to travel to Ganga river bank,


At that time Ganga Devi appeared here and said she will remain here in the temple pond.

Yoga Narasimha swamy Prathista is believed to be done by Bhrama Deva who did tapasya here for many years.


Narasimhar appeared with Lakshmi Devi here to give darshan to Bhrama Deva here.

उग्रं वीरं महाविष्णुं ज्वलन्तं सर्वतोमुखम्।
नृसिंहं भीषणं भद्रं मृत्युमृत्युं नमाम्यहम् ॥

Om Shri Narasimha Murthaye Namah
🙏🕉🙏
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Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
A thread on HN about bad code in legacy projects both makes me think how little we've learned as a discipline over the years and, honestly, how little credit we give ourselves for some pretty major

Fun going down this list and thinking: "Hmm, plausible at a well-run modern software shop", "Hmm, possible, but requires implausible tradeoffs", "Literally disallowed by languages", and "If you were to attempt doing that our test suite wouldn't let you merge."

I think we as an industry celebrate (not quite the right word) failure too much and don't celebrate success nearly enough. There is no DailyWTF for competent execution, word of which generally stays pretty local to the source while incompetence passes into legend.

Alrighty let me try to thread the needle on being the change I want to see in the world while not giving away anything that will get me in trouble:

Ruby has wonderful developer ergonomics. Typed languages are easier for machines to guarantee the correctness of. We built a type checker for Ruby (and I believe it is slated for OSS release sometime).

c.f.
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Anshul Pandey
Anshul Pandey
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BRAHMA VAIVARTA PURAN: IMPORTANCE AND CHARACTERISTICS.

This Puran introduces us to way of Vedas. On the request of Narad Muni Bhagwan Saavarni had preached this Puran. It is a summary of Dharma, Arth, Moksha etc.


Listening to this Puran one gets automatically attached to Vishnu and Shiva and realize that there is no difference between them. Vyasji divided this book into four parts. It has eighteen thousand shlokas. This whole book is in the form of dialogue between Suutji and Maharishi's.

The first part Brahmkhand, consists of Shrishti description. Here Shri is known as Para Brahma and description of Gokul is also mentioned, It also narrates the argument between Brahma and Narad in which both were defeated, and then Narad went to Shiva to attain more gyan.

Shivji advised him to go to Bhagwan Saavarni for this. Narad goes to Saavarni ashram to seek Knowledge and is totally amazed by the sorroundings.

Next is Prakriti khand which consists of dialogue between Narad and Saavarni where they discuss the

Importance of Shri Krishna through various stories. Then there is the discussion of Prakriti and its various hues. Listening to this gets you wealth.
Next is Ganesh Khand which describes the Punyak vrat done by Parvati ji. After this it narrates the birth of Kartikeya and Ganesh.
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Vibhu Vashisth
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THE UNTOLD TALE OF THE LESSER KNOWN WARRIORS:JOGRAJ GURJAR & RAMPYARI GURJAR AND HOW DID THEY DEFEAT THE CRUELEST ISLAMIC INVADER, TIMUR LANG.

Timur Lang, was the founder of Timurid Empire. He was born in April 1336 CE, somewhere in central asia.


During his reign, he conquered Persia, Egypt, Central Asia and emerged as the most powerful and heinous ruler. He was a religious fanatic like the rest of the Islamic invaders who tried to invade India.

Timur Lang decided to invade India in 1398 as he heard about India's splendid wealth and had a desire to conquer India which his ancestor Genghis Khan couldn't do.


After Firoz Shah's demise in1388, Delhi Sultanate was in a state of political turmoil.During this time, Timur sent his grandson Pir Mohammad to attack Indian front. He invaded Multan&was able to defeat Iqbal Khan's brother but when he met with resistance,he asked help from Timur.


Iqbal Khan secured his hold on Delhi under Muhammad Tughluq after Firoz Shah died.
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