BC ECONOMY
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

The argument for deficits & debt raising interest rates in the US is not increased credit risk, it is that interest rates are a function of economic fundamentals, flows & policy. Deficits/debt change those.

I can't tell if I'm agreeing or disagreeing with @jc_econ.

 Increasing government spending or reducing taxes increases demand (or reduces saving). This raises the price of loanable funds or the interest rate.

In a dynamic context, more demand means a stronger economy, the central bank raises interest rates sooner, and long rates rise.
(As an aside, we are not close to the United States needing to worry about credit risk and the risks are more overstated than understated in most other advanced economies too. But credit risk is not always & everywhere irrelevant, just look at the UK in 1976 or Canada in 1994.)
Interest rates have fallen over the last 20 yrs while debt has risen. This does not necessarily mean that debt rising causes interest rates to fall. It could also mean that other things have happened at he same time that pushed down interest rates more than debt pushed them up.
The suspects for these "other things" include slower productivity growth, slower popln growth, higher inequality, less investment, etc. All of which either increase the supply of saving or reduce the demand for investment, reducing the equilibrium interest rate.
When interest rates are at zero and expected to be there for a while then fiscal expansions will not raise interest rates very much if at all. And if it raise inflation/expected growth then fiscal expansions are more likely to crowd in investment instead of crowding them out.
Moreover, interest rates are likely to be low even after the economy recovers for all of the structural reasons that made them very low even before the pandemic crisis hit (the real 10-year rate rate was negative in February). If fiscal policy can raise rates that would be good.
Higher interest rates would create more scope for monetary policy to cut rates when it needs to, reduce risk taking in financial markets and help the soundness of the banking system.
We have much more fiscal space than many think but it is not infinite because if you raise debt way too much r - g won't stay negative.

We still need some prioritization. If I thought r - g would be negative forever regardless of debt then why raise the top rate from 37 to 39.6?
In sum: The argument for expansionary fiscal policy now is that it it is unlikely to drive up interest rates & could crowd in investment.

An argument for not pivoting to fiscal consolidation is that higher rates are more of a plus not a minus.

Do also need to prioritize.

More from Economy

Fionna O'Leary, \U0001f56f\U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺...
@fascinatorfun
What do a Tory Peer, Selwyn Gummer (Lord Chadlington), David Sumner ( Sumner Group Holdings) and the Sanchez Perez family (drugs money, laundered through Gold mines) have in common?

It’s another company-saving a £50 million PPE contract shaggy dog story

Connections, connections


What a start to the story

“A bulletproof truck trundled down the road in downtown Lima, guarded by 18 policeman
They were wearing body armour & wielding high velocity rifles

No-one was taking any chances
This was a Special delivery for Peruvian Prosecutor for an anti drug trial


That was in 2011, the same year that Lord Chadlington’s daughter got married in Chadlington to Henry Allsopp.

Who was there?
Yes Kirstie Allsopp of Location, location, location and all this Covid nonsense fame) is his sister

Camilla, his Godmother

Jeremy Hunt

Cameron


Well. Come on. Lord Chadlington had been chair of the local Witney Conservative Association. It’s only fair.

Hang on. Julian Wheatland, Director of SCL Group/ Cambridge Analytica had also been chair of Witney Conservative Association...and campaigned for his mate Cameron

Are we sure Julian Wheatland and his side kick Alexander Nix were not there too @JolyonMaugham ?

I mean. They move in the same North Oxford circles.
ECONOMY
Moses Kagan
Moses Kagan
@moseskagan
1/ How to raise a real estate fund (and, ideally, avoid getting sued)

Have warned everyone it’s better to raise capital deal-by-deal, bc it’s easier to raise & bc it's better for the sponsor. Still, there’s interest in learning how to do a fund… so, here goes.

2/ Don’t think of doing this unless you have a record of successful deals, ideally mostly/all in the same asset class / strategy.

Remember: You will be asking LPs to invest in YOU; they need to feel like you know what you’re doing.

3/ Really helps to have a list of prospective LPs BEFORE you start your raise. The more high-quality leads you have, the more likely you are to succeed. (I built my list via my blog initially; now twitter leads predominate - see my bio.)

4/ Find an experienced attorney. Doesn’t need to be a huge, expensive firm, but you want someone who has done a lot of private offerings before. Don’t agree to a big fee yet… at first, you just want a few hrs of her time for advice.

5/ Find an experienced CPA. Ideally, your existing CPA has worked on a lot of private deals before. If not, get a new one. Prospective LPs need confidence that someone good is overseeing the bookkeeping and doing the tax prep.
ECONOMY
Advertisement
Patrick Chovanec
Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon RELATIVE to real economic activity. This last part is key.

Also, measuring “the money supply” is a tricky thing, because it lives and breathes with the economy.
ECONOMY
Dr. Nyri A. Bakkalian
Dr. Nyri A. Bakkalian
@riversidewings
SALUTATIONS you fantastic denizens of the internet! The first #FridayNightHistory of 2021 is here! This week, a new mystery: the true name of "John Williams," Japanese Veteran of the American Civil War.

Yeah, you heard right. And he's not the only one, either.


Now-- I know, I know. Ordinarily you see me talking about the Japanese aftermath of the US Civil War, in the form of people and surplus equipment from the US that ended up there during the Boshin War.

I find myself in pursuit of the opposite, today. @DuPertweet brought a tweet by @KyleMizokami to my attention, with photos of an article talking about Asian-American/Pacific Islander veterans of the US Civil War in general and 2 Japanese vets in particular.

I'm starting from one of those two, and seeing how much I can reconstruct, because there really weren't that many Japanese people outside of Japan in the timespan of the US Civil War (1861-1865), so I think it should be possible to narrow down their precise names and identities.

And this week I want to start from one. What do we know about this person who American records call John Williams?
ECONOMY
pete wolfendale
pete wolfendale
@deontologistics
I think one way of looking at the economic pathologies of our society, without using words like 'capitalism' and 'rentiership', is to talk about inequities in the distribution of risk. Some have more taste for risk than others, sure, but risk is not distributed on this basis.

In the UK, so much of our political troubles come from the growth in the landlord class, who if nothing else, wield disproportionate power relative to their social worth: at one and the same time claim to be martyrs to the risk of investment, and demand these risks be minimised.

Of course, it's possible to make claims like this: e.g., nurses have every right to claim that they shoulder not merely more risk than most, but far more risk than is strictly necessary. The pandemic has made this brutally obvious to anyone who has been paying attention.

However one chooses to tally up compensation for this social role, be it financial, social, or some other privilege, it's pretty obvious that every last 'essential worker' is shouldering more societal risk than most non-essential workers compensated far better than they.

The way this trade off gets (implicitly) articulated as 'pay vs. purpose' is one of the enduring insights of @davidgraeber's Bullshit Jobs. Yet there are many essential workers who don't even get the illusion of purpose in compensation for personal risk (e.g., warehouse staff).
ECONOMY

You May Also Like

Caleb Porzio
Caleb Porzio
@calebporzio
🎉🎉 PHP 7.3 is here!

Here are the things I'm excited about.

🚂 Trailing commas in function/method calls!

This will certainly be a required styling choice for me. Same delightful benefits of trailing comma in multi-line PHP arrays, and JavaScript objects.


🧵 Less disgusting heredoc syntax!

Inlining heredoc strings in any way right now is grrrosssss. Now we get sensible capabilities. Everything that was wrong with it is now fixed!

(Ignore the bad syntax highlighting)


☠️ Finally, not-so-silent json_decode error detection!

This really sucked before, now it just sucks a bit less (who wants to pass a 4th param and pass 2 default params first? (helper function anybody?)


📜 Not horrible functions for getting the first and last item (or key) from an array!

Before you either strung a bunch of functions together or messed with internal array pointers. This is a much-needed improvement.
TECH
Reagan Gomez
Reagan Gomez
@ReaganGomez
Black movie goers know which movies are for us and which films aren’t. We really don’t like our stories being made into films that center (and humanize) people that hate us. The filmmakers/studio know that by naming the film “The Green Book”, black movie goers...

...are going to be expecting a story about black people trying to safely navigate the country (real history) and instead will get a white savior film. Like folks went to see Detroit thinking it was about the riots...

Anywhoo, I know Mahershela is fantastic in it. He was the best thing about the trailer. As rich as the history behind the creation of ‘The Green Book’ is/was, as amazing as Dr. Don Shirley’s story is, WHY is this film about a random, racist driver and his family?

This feeds into the ignorant anti-Black American stereotype of “Black Americans don’t have any culture/history/mythology” or whatever. That our stories are still both being used while simultaneously erased in 2018 is wild to me. It’s gonna clean up come award season. 🤦🏾‍♀️

And now, if black filmmakers WANTED to make a film about The Greenbook, guess what it can’t be called🙃. Just like if someone wanted to make a film about the actual Detroit riots, guess what it can’t be called? Then those filmmakers would run into...
CULTURE
Advertisement
SK
SK
@sk_diary1
Andhakasuravadha Samharamurti -#story #Thread
Sculpture of Bhagwan Shiva as the destroyer of the Asura Andhaka - Cave 29,Ellora caves

Asura Andhaka hangs on to a trishula held by 6-armed Shiva.

Once Parvathi & Shiva were relaxing in the pleasant gardens of Mount Mandhara.


Bhagwan Shiva sat down there to enjoy the happiness.Parvati closed the eyes of Shiva playfully & darkness covered the whole universe.Parvati was perplexed & her palms were wet with perspiration.A few drops of her sweat mixed with sweat from Shiva’s body& fell to the ground.

From this sweat,a fierce creature was born,it started to roar.Child was born blind as Shiva's eyes were closed so was named as Andaka.Andha means darkness&also ignorance.Around the same time Asura Hiranyaksha was performing rigorous tapas Shiva for a boon of powerful son.

Bhagwan Shiva was pleased by tapas of Hiranyaksha & blessed him with darshan.Hiranyaksha asked for a powerful son,Shiva told him that he cannot have his own son,but can adopt a blind child who would become very powerful later.Shiva gave child Andaka to Hiranyaksha.

Hiranyaksha returned to his kingdom with Andaka.Later after the vadh of Hiranyaksha, Andaka is said to have lived with his cousins.He was ridiculed,so dejected Andaka went to forest.He did severe tapas for over many years towards Brahma Dev. Brahma dev appeared before him.
ALL
Engineer Who
Engineer Who
@Engr_Who
A long but must read thread. Udaybhan Rathore and myth making in Maratha history: An analysis. This is the thread on Udaybhan Rathore, who he was and how over the time period, his life was portrayed in maratha chronicles and pseudo history. (1/n)

Udaybhan rathore was the head of Bhinai thikana (84 villages) in Ajmer. He was the direct descendant of the famous Rao Chandrasen, Raja of Marwar (4th generation) who resisted Akbar all his life and never made any alliance with mughals like Maharana Pratap. (2/n)

Later in 1783, Maharaja of Jodhpur gave title of Raja to Bhinai family for their military service. Bhinai family and their direct descendant Raja Sh Mayuraj Singh still lives in Ajmer. Anyway coming to Udaybhan Rathore and story of Tanaji. (3/n)

Jai Singh's march on Shivaji and treaty of Purandar (1665) is a well known episode to repeat here. After getting the hill forts from Shivaji under the treaty, Jai Singh didn't have enough man-power to man every one of the small forts because of his next (4/n)

campaign against Bijapur. Jai Singh personally took over a couple of important forts like Kondhana (Sinhgarh), Purandar etc. Others were given to some mughals or their fortification walls destroyed. Jai Singh died in 1667 near Burhanpur while enroute to the north. (5/n)
INDIA
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI BANKEY BIHARI JI, VRINDAVAN (UP)

Very famous Krishna Mandir where Bankey Bihari Ji is worshipped and looked after as a child.
Bankey means “Bent at three places”.
Thakur Ji was worshipped in Nidhivan till 1863. This mandir was constructed in 1864 by Goswamis.
@LostTemple7


Legend says that Swami Haridas used to worship Krishna in Nidhivan.
Once, his curious disciples entered the forest but they were almost blinded by bright, intense light. Upon knowing this, Swamiji himself went there and after his requests, Krishna appeared with his consort.


Krishna, then, left back this black charming murti,which we see now, before disappearing.
A curtain is drawn before the murti after every 15-30 second. It is said that if one stares long enough into the eyes of Shri Banke Bihari, the person would lose his self consciousness.


Bankey Bihari Ji sports a flute only once a year on the eve of Sharad Purnima.
Darshan of His lotus feet can be done only on Akshay Tritiya every year.
There are no loud bells here and
no early morning Darshan can be done so that child Krishna’s sleep is not disturbed.
ALL