BC CULTURE
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

We may be alone in the šŸŒŒ ENTIRE UNIVERSE.

(a thread on this bold conjecture)

šŸŽ‰ It's also my 1st podcast episode https://t.co/7u2FskrhHi

 1/ For my inaugural podcast episode, I interviewed @anderssandberg who is a senior research fellow at the @fhioxford.

I highly recommend listening to the entire episode. It's full of gems and insights.

But if you want key ideas, keep reading this thread

https://t.co/7u2FskrhHi
2/ Before we get to that, here's what we talk about in the hour-long conversation.
3/ Both history and science fiction shows us how the world can be dramatically different than what it is today.
4/ But exponential curves (like Moore's law) make it hard to predict the future because early on they look like linear curves.

https://t.co/wt9lecgtEU
5/ While you can still model laws like Moore's laws, predicting when a world leader will launch a nuclear attack is impossible.
6/ Hence, predicting the long-term future of humanity is intractable and that is why you must resort to using probabilities for describing the likelihood of different types of futures that can unfold.
7/ Laws of physics are the most reliable factors in predictions (like nothing could go faster than light).

These laws place an upper bound on predictions like how fast can an intelligent species spread across the entire universe.
8/ When it comes to predicting the future, Hollywood movies distort our perception because theyā€™re made for excitement, not for exploring the truth.
9/ What is the consensus among philosophers about the future of humanity?

@anderssandberg: Existential risks are a top priority in the community.
10/

== Why we may be alone in the observable universe ==

Fermi paradox: where are all the intelligent species in-universe? We donā€™t see them.

https://t.co/Ew0OOQU29N
11/ Drake equation multiplies various factors together for estimating how many intelligent species should we find in our galaxy.

https://t.co/H7nr35xO6L
12/ For the Drake equation, we have a good idea about astrophysical factors (like planet formation rate) but for other factors like life formation, we have no idea about its probabilities.
13/ Traditional approaches of Drake equation input a number, but we should put in ranges of numbers.

Hence, the output of the Drake equation should be a probability distribution, not one number.
14/ When you put reasonable numbers for the Drake equation, you get a wide range of possibilities with a high chance that we may be the only intelligent species around.
15/ If you want to avoid the conclusion that we may be alone, you have to claim to know the probability of life formation and the probability of emergence of intelligence with rather high precision (which we donā€™t).
16/ Ultimately, the rareness of intelligent life comes from high uncertainty about how likely life is.
17/

== Why the emergence of intelligent life is a rare phenomenon ==

Life on Earth could indicate life is common OR that Earth was incredibly lucky.
18/ However, even if life is common in the universe, it could be the case that most life doesnā€™t go beyond single-celled organisms.
19/ Many evolutionary transitions need to happen before intelligent life could emerge.

This is what @anderssandberg and his colleagues explore in their latest paper: https://t.co/sPAAbXL7RA
20/ Evolutionary transitions that need to happen before we get intelligent life:

- abiogenesis,
- prokaryotes -> eukaryotes,
- sexual reproduction,
- multi-cellularity,
- and then culture/intelligence.
21/ Some steps are easy (e.g. multi-cellularity is not a difficult step in evolution because it evolved multiple times independently).

However, some steps are hard. Eukaryotes evolved just once because lots of things have to go right for it to happen.
22/ @anderssandberg asks: assuming these evolutionary transitions take time, what are the chances that observers emerge before a star (like our Sun) burns out?
23/ To answer it, you have to take observer selection effects into consideration.

That is, even if this probability is low, on lucky planets like Earth, you will find observers who conclude life emerged early on.

https://t.co/NdkWyOzyM3
24/ LINCHPIN OF THE PAPER -> Harder the steps, more evenly you find the steps to be distributed.

And we find multiple steps in our evolutionary history pretty evenly distributed, which suggests each of the steps is highly improbable.
25/ Because life took a billion years to emerge on Earth and intelligence took 4 billion years, while the life span of our Sun is 10 billion years, we should expect the probability of abiogenesis or transition to intelligence to be really hard...
26/ .. and when you combine multiple hard steps, chances of intelligence life emerging anywhere in the universe becomes minuscule.
27/ More reasons to believe intelligent life is rare:

- History of Earth is not good evidence of intelligent life being common in the universe but works as evidence as it being rare.
28/

- If intelligent life was easy, we should expect it to emerge very early in Earthā€™s history (yet we took 4 billion years)

- If intelligent life showed up early in Universeā€™s history, we should imagine our galaxy to be full of such life (yet we don't find it)
29/

== Prediction 1 of the theory: Thereā€™s no life on red dwarf stars ==

https://t.co/BNkIkA5oen
30/ Given red dwarf stars are more in number and exist for much longer, why do we find ourselves around a star with a lifespan of 10 billion years and not around a red dwarf star that will keep on shining for trillions of years?
31/ The theory predicts that the fact we don't find ourselves around red dwarf stars suggests that the conditions around them are not conducive hence we shouldn't find any life on such stellar systems.
32/

== Prediction 2 of theory: If we find life on Mars, itā€™ll share a common descendent with life on Earth ==
33/ Solar system shared a lot of material in the early period, so it is not unlikely that we may find life on other planets. https://t.co/wBtBqytWRq
34/ So, discovering a different type of life on Mars will suggest the emergence of life is fairly easy but not finding it or finding it similar to Earth's will suggest that it is pretty hard to kickstart abiogenesis.

https://t.co/N7lp6AjUWB
35/

== Once it emerges, how long does an intelligent life last? ==

Lower bound: in several decades of splitting the atom, civilizations destroy themselves.

However, if you spread in the space, your existence becomes robust. You're harder to destroy.
36/ Even at a speed slower than the speed of light, we can spread in the galaxy within a few tens of millions of years.

This again suggests that an empty galaxy is very strong evidence of rarity of intelligent life.
37/

== Maybe weā€™re the first intelligent life in the universe? ==

It could be a case where intelligent life has just begun in the universe and will spread out across the universe in trillions of years.
38/ Laws of physics allow intelligence to do rearrangement of enormous scales of matter (like galaxies)

We should look at such rearrangements of matter in the universe as evidence of life (technosignatures) but so far we havenā€™t found any

https://t.co/2AyW2Olv9o
39/ @anderssandberg suggests that even though we haven't found a definitive conclusion, there are some unresolved mysteries like the Tabby's star

https://t.co/tu0njGogRj
40/ We could look for Dyson spheres too, which are structures that harness the energy of a sun.

But we havenā€™t found any Dyson spheres so far. Maybe weā€™re early and maybe we get to build a Dyson sphere.

https://t.co/NsC6hfM7mf
41/

== What should we do if weā€™re the only ones in the universe? ==

Weā€™re self-replicators capable of building technology, which can overshadow normal physical processes.
42/ So the most IMPORTANT thing is to -> take the future seriously as weā€™re unique, just arrived on the scene recently but may have a future that spans trillions of years.
43/ We can do several things to ensure we have a future:

- We can start building tools and institutions that are better than what came before.

- We can work on reducing (existential or progress-halting) risks that are foreseeable

- We can work on uncovering unkown risks
44/ LOVED this by @anderssandberg

Humans matter because we may be alone in the universe.

If someone describes the universe, they better include us in the description because otherwise, the description will be incomplete

Because of this, humans have intrinsic value.
45/ That's it! Hope you enjoyed listening to the podcast.

If you make notes from the podcast, tag me and I'll include it in this thread and on the podcast page:

https://t.co/uSZtI6hMyV
46/

== Other threads on the episode ==

https://t.co/cW4vlsBE3o
47/ https://t.co/n8I7Ak7bf8
48/ Some wonderful passages from this paper: https://t.co/kQgn2MmZm7

Thanks @anderssandberg for pointing it out.
49/
50/
51/
52/

More from Paras Chopra

Paras Chopra
Paras Chopra
@paraschopra
Recruit exceptional people by showing them a promised land.

a šŸ§µ


1/ A recruitment strategy should be indistinguishable from a marketing strategy.

2/ Entrepreneurs spend a lot of time understanding the market, talking to customers & customizing marketing messages to customer segments.

However, they often fail to realize that recruiting people to work for you is no different from recruiting customers to use your product.

3/ Itā€™s true that the key difference is that youā€™re asking for money from customers while youā€™re offering to pay money to prospective employees.

However, for exceptional people, money offered is a commodity because many other companies are offering them the same or higher money.

4/ Exceptional people never look for jobs; jobs look for them.
HIRE
Paras Chopra
Paras Chopra
@paraschopra
Difference between wealth and money.

(a short šŸ§µ thread)

1/ As the oxygen crisis during 2nd covid wave in India has reiterated,

wealth = *stuff* we want
money = *numbers* in our bank

2/ Being wealthy is a matter of priorities, while being rich is a matter of luck and hard work.

3/ Our happiness and well being depends on the wealth we have, not the money.

One can have all the money in the world and still be miserable.

However if one has sufficient wealth, happiness is guaranteed (partly because thatā€™s how wealth is defined).

4/ Hereā€™s how to be wealthy without spending a dime:

- Exercise regularly
- Develop deep relationships
- Help other people
- Eat healthy
- Meditate
- Learn and develop skills
- Laugh
PERSONAL GROWTH
Advertisement
Paras Chopra
Paras Chopra
@paraschopra
Only two types of startups exist: technology-led and culture-led

(a short thread on this mental model)

šŸ”„ It's also the 7th chapter of my book https://t.co/iLfMb0xhnD


1/ There are two ways an entrepreneur can fail:

a) launch a product that nobody desires;

b) launch a product that people desire but with no significant advantage over established competitors (hence give no strong reason for a customer to switch away).

2/ These two failure modes have their analogous success modes:

a) culture-led startup success where a new desire is discovered and fulfilled;

b) technology-led startup success where new technology is used to fulfill an existing desire.

3/ Letā€™s explore culture-led startups first.

They are the ones in which the entrepreneur is able to observe a pattern of new derivative desires that didnā€™t exist before.

Such trends are very hard to spot because initially they can be mistaken either as fads or insignificant.

4/ However, an entrepreneur who has good observation skills is able to connect the dots from diverse sources to grow his conviction about a cultural shift just when the market is
STARTUP
Paras Chopra
Paras Chopra
@paraschopra
Itā€™s a mistake to assume that open-minded people have weak opinions.

On the contrary, they are actually strongly opinionated because they actively seek evidence contrary to their beliefs which makes them converge on beliefs that are only updated if thereā€™s compelling evidence.
PERSONAL GROWTH
Paras Chopra
Paras Chopra
@paraschopra
Sugar was once promoted in newspaper ads as a healthy snack that helps save calories and prevents obesity.

Oh, how the tables turn.
SUGAR

More from Culture

Ferris Jabr
Ferris Jabr
@ferrisjabr
A thread of very good, wonderful, truly Super Bowls.

Translucent agate bowl with ornamental grooves and coffee-and-cream marbling. Found near Qift in southern Egypt. 300 - 1,000 BC. šŸ“· Getty Museum https://t.co/W1HfQZIG2V


Technicolor dreambowl, found in a grave near Zadar on Croatia's Dalmatian Coast. Made by melding and winding thin bars of glass, each adulterated with different minerals to get different colors. 1st century AD. šŸ“· Zadar Museum of Ancient Glass https://t.co/H9VfNrXKQK


100,000-year-old abalone shells used to mix red ocher, marrow, charcoal, and water into a colorful paste. Possibly the oldest artist's palettes ever discovered. Blombos Cave, South Africa. šŸ“·https://t.co/0fMeYlOsXG


Reed basket bowl with shell and feather ornaments. Possibly from the Southern Pomo or Lake Miwok cultures. Found in Santa Barbara, CA, circa 1770. šŸ“· British Museum https://t.co/F4Ix0mXAu6


Wooden bowl with concentric circles and rounded rim, most likely made of umbrella thorn acacia (Vachellia/Acacia tortilis). Qumran. 1st Century BCE. šŸ“· https://t.co/XZCw67Ho03
CULTURE
Joy Karmaker
Joy Karmaker
@JoyKarmaker75
The Fast and the FuriousĀ is a 2001 action film directed byĀ Rob CohenĀ and starringĀ Vin Diesel,Ā Michelle Rodriguez,Ā Jordana Brewster, andĀ Paul Walker.Ā The Fast and the FuriousĀ is first film in theĀ The Fast and the FuriousĀ franchise, distributed byĀ Universal Pictures.


The film was released June 22, 2001 and grossed $207.3 million. In 2003,Ā The Fast and the FuriousĀ was followed by the sequelĀ 2 Fast 2 Furious.

Brian O'ConnerĀ is an undercoverĀ Los Angeles copwho aspires to become a detective.


When he is tasked to stop hijackers led byĀ Dominic Torettofrom stealing expensive electronics equipment off of trucks, Brian must choose between his obligation to the LAP and his friendship with Toretto after he becomes good friends with his family.

The film opens at a dockyard where a container is loaded onto the trailer of a semi-truck. The truck then departs the dockyard and one of the dock workers makes a phone call to an anonymous party on the other end, informing them on how to identify the truck.
CULTURE
Advertisement
Mystery Grove Publishing Co.
Mystery Grove Publishi...
@MysteryGrove
By popular demand, here is the official Mystery Grove Film Recommendations list. Watch all of these in order if you want to truly understand the world we live in today.
CULTURE
The Light - Truthpaper
The Light - Truthpaper
@LightTruthpaper
Latest update from @TheBernician

1/19

Hancock, Whitty, Vallance & Ferguson Stand Accused of Pandemic Fraud.

After yet more damning evidence arose last week, further additions had to be made to the court papers, which we are now aiming to lay in the coming week.

2/19

The four defendants will be Matt Hancock, Chris Whitty, Patrick Vallance and Neil Ferguson, each of whom has inextricable and ultimately incriminating connections with Bill Gates and Big Pharma.

3/19

As well as three counts of fraud by false representation and seven counts of fraud by non-disclosure, under sections 2 and 3 of the Fraud Act 2006, we can now also prove that the entire worldwide scamdemic originated on these shores.

4/19

In fact, we can show that, without the dishonest statements and non-disclosures of the four defendants we are initially proceeding against, COVID-1984 would not have transpired.

5/19

Furthermore, the 1st defendant, Matt Hancock, cannot rely upon the defence of Parliamentary Privilege, on the ground that none of the evidence relied upon by the prosecution is capable of preventing parliamentarians from carrying out their lawful business in Parliament.
CULTURE
Jordan Ross
Jordan Ross
@jordan_ross_8F
At age 24 Amazon let me manage 2500 employees and a $50,000,000 business unit

I learned that leadership at scale is simply about following this one framework

This is going to make you and I hundreds of millions of dollars

Culture is what your people say and do when you are not around

Becoming a master of influencing the behavior of others = becoming a master of culture

There are 3 pillars every leader should use in their language to crush influence

Values
MVP
Heuristics

values are the 5-10 things your company prioritizes as ā€˜must havesā€™

They are non negotiables

Individually, they arenā€™t unique

Together, they create a unique DNA called ā€˜your

Heuristics are a simple set of rules that drive complex behaviors

In nature, heuristics are what enable ants to build massive ant farms or bees to build huge bee hives

We want to create these in our agency to build something well beyond ourselves

MVP= mission, vision, purpose

The why behind the organization

Everyone, especially now, wants to strive for something more than a paycheck

Not having this in your business will make you obsolete real quick
CULTURE

You May Also Like

Amit Schandillia
Amit Schandillia
@Schandillia
[THREAD: HISTORY OF THE HINDU TEMPLE]
1/102
Four hours south of Aswan in Lower Nubia, right by the Nile, is a region dotted with temple complexes built more than 3,000 years ago. Some like the temples of Amada, Derr, and Beit el-Wali go as far back as 1500 BC.


2/102
A little further south, not far from the border with Sudan, is another complex dedicated to Ramses II, Hathor, and Nefertari in the village of Ipsambul, better known locally as Abu Sunbul and internationally as Abu Simbel. These go back to the 13th century BC.


3/102
Djeser-Djeseru, also known as the mortuary temple of Hatshepsut in Upper Egypt also dates to 1400 BC. Over 500 years older is the nearby Mentuhotep II, also a mortuary temple. Both were dedicated to the cult of Amun Ra, besides their respective pharaohs.


4/102
Far older is the Ä gantija complex of Malta. Going as far back as 3600 BC, this one comprises of two temples entirely made of stone and enclosed in a stone wall. From the figures therein, it's understood to be a site of some kind of a fertility cult worship.


5/102
Dating from the same period are the limestone megaliths of ĦaĔar Qim and Mnajdra, both said to have once hosted ritualistic sacrifices as part of the same fertility cult worship as found in the Ġgantija complex. Malta has some of the oldest temple complexes in Europe.
RELIGION
Stephen Fasenfeld \U0001f600
Stephen Fasenfeld šŸ˜€...
@fasenfeld
1. ā€œWho Are Irelandā€™s Members Of The World Economic Forum Implementing The Great Reset In 2021 ? šŸ§µ1/28

šŸ•µļøšŸ”Ž Politicians, Musicians, Clergy, Bankers, Journalists, Human Rights, Artificial Intelligence, Sustainability, Corporations & Agriculture


2. In previous threads I have looked at šŸ‡®šŸ‡Ŗ key players in the Trilateral Commission as well as šŸ‡®šŸ‡Ŗ people who have attended the Bilderberger meetings. I also looked at the šŸ‡®šŸ‡Ŗ in the Young Global Leaders which is a site run by the WEF. You will see a lot of crossover between them.

3. The purpose of this thread is to compile all the Irish members into one thread for ease of access and reading rather than having to dive through the WEF site. This is by no means definitive and I will be adding more over time when they pop out of the woodwork.

4. Irelandā€™s WEF members are drawn from all walks of life but can be split into 2 separate areas. The WEF calls the first category ā€œpeopleā€ and the 2nd one ā€œagenda contributorsā€. In total Ireland has a minimum of 61 members. Some of the names will be familiar and others will not

5. In this thread Iā€™m just going to concentrate on the 21 people (there are probably a lot more). There are also 40 ā€œagenda contributorsā€ which I will cover in a separate thread. The agenda contributors are those who write articles or do research for the WEF site.
ECONOMY
Advertisement
Kab
Kab
@Kabamur_Taygeta
#NEIOH

1. Friends Of The Great Planet Earth!

Everything You Seek Is Already Within You!Ā  Each Waking Dream Has False Teachings That Ā Say There Is A Special Place 'Out There' In The Skies Where People Go That Follow A Certain Doctrine.

2. And Those Same Teachers Explain There Is A Place Of Torment For Others That Arrived On A Different Part Of The Planet And Were Taught A Different Doctrine.

There Is ONE Creator That Has Been Named By Many. It Would Be Loving To Honor And Respect Another's Beliefs,

3. As In Truth, Many Have Lived In Multiple Cultures With Many Beliefs That Now Are Judged! Incarnating Over And Over Is The Joy Of The Soul Experiencing Life! The Soul Fully Understands This Is A Human Experience.

4. Wouldn't It Be Much More Relaxing And Fun To Allow Others Their Freedom, Just As You Want Yours?Ā  Yes Indeed!Ā  Relax And Flow!

Since The Very Beginning Of Your Self-Awareness As An Incarnate Being, You Have Probed Your World For Clues To The Meaning Of Your Existence.

5. You Have Looked In Every Conceivable Crevice And Pondered The Vastness Of The Infinite Cosmos. You Have Scrutinized The Spiritual Wisdom That Was Forthcoming From Those Who Believed Themselves To Be Knowledgeable About Such Matters.
LIFE
SK
SK
@sk_diary1
Prasanna Venkatesa Perumal #temple -Gunaseelam,Near Trichy,TN #Thread

Gunaseela Mahatmyam,a chapter of Bhavishyottara Purana describes greatness of this place.

Venkatachlapathi of Tirumala Tirupati appeared b4 Gunaseela Rishi here,so Gunaseelam is known as Ten(South)Tirupati


Prasanna Venkatesa Perumal is in a standing posture with 4 arms holding sankha & chakra in the upper hands.The lower right hand is in abhaya pose,blessing devotees &left hand is in kati hasta,resting on waist.

A sceptre(senkkol)rests on right shoulder,with which this murti is believed to cure people affected by mental illness.These patient stay here for a period-48 days& participate in poojas&most of them get relieved of their problems.There is a temple run Mental Rehabilitation center

#storytimethread -As per Sthala Puranam,existence of this temple is due to efforts of Gunaseela Rishi, a disciple of Thalpiya Maharishi.
Thalpiya Maharishi along with his disciple Gunaseela Rishi once went to Himalayas.On his way back, Gunaseela Rishi stayed back at Tirupathi.


He was so wanted to have darshan of Venkatachalapathy in Gunaseelam near his asharam & bless the devotees.

He came back, bathed in the Cauvery,took blessing from his guru &undertook severe penance here in his ashram in Gunaseelam.
RELIGION
Kitze @ \U0001f1e9\U0001f1ea\ufe0f
Kitze @ šŸ‡©šŸ‡Ŗļø...
@thekitze
To people who are under the impression that you can get rich quickly by working on an app, here are the stats for https://t.co/az8F12pf02

šŸ“ˆ ~12000 vistis
ā˜‘ļø 109 transactions
šŸ’° 353ā‚¬ profit (285 after tax)

I have spent 1.5 months on this app. You can make more $ in 2 days.

šŸ¤·ā€ā™‚ļø


I'm still happy that I launched a paid app bcs it involved extra work:

- backend for processing payments (+ permissions, webhooks, etc)
- integration with payment processor
- UI for license activation in Electron
- machine activation limit
- autoupdates
- mailgun emails

etc.

These things seemed super scary at first. I always thought it was way too much work and something would break. But I'm glad I persisted. So far the only problem I have is that mailgun is not delivering the license keys to certain domains like https://t.co/6Bqn0FUYXo etc. šŸ‘Œ

omg I just realized that me . com is an Apple domain, of course something wouldn't work with these dicks
MAKERS