BC CRYPTO
Saved by @AnmolNarula11

I've just read one of the most lucid, wide-ranging, cross-disciplinary critiques of cryptocurrency and blockchain I've yet to encounter. 1/

 It comes from David "DSHR" Rosenthal, a distinguished technologist whose past achievements including helping to develop X11 and the core technologies for Nvidia.

https://t.co/tkAMShno4k 2/
Rosenthal's critique is a transcript of a lecture he gave to Stanford's EE380 class, adapted from a December 2021 talk for an investor conference. 3/
It is a bang-up-to-date synthesis of many of the critical writings on the subject, glued together with Rosenthal's own deep technical expertise. He calls it "Can We Mitigate Cryptocurrencies' Externalities?"

The presence of "externalities" in Rosenthal's title is key. 4/
Rosenthal identifies blockchainism's core ideology as emerging from "the libertarian culture of Silicon Valley and the cypherpunks," and states that "libertarianism's attraction is based on ignoring externalities."

This is an important critique of libertarianism. 5/
The idea that "liberty" is the freedom to do as you like, provided it doesn't harm others is simple enough on its face, but the reality is very few of our actions are free from the potential to harm others. 6/
The freedom to drive, or operate a firearm, or to determine your own vaccination preferences all have impacts on others. 7/
We can (and should) argue about what consideration you owe to your neighbors and what tolerance they owe to you, but all to often, that argument is settled by ignoring it. 8/
Think of the people who talk about masking as a "personal choice." Human beings have an undeniably entwined epidemiological destiny. There are few epidemiological choices that are purely personal - they redound to the people around you. 9/
The existence of a shared destiny and the necessity of a society to manage it runs smack into the idea that messy personal conflicts are best resolved by carving out individual zones of autonomy. 10/
All too often, the libertarian definition of "liberty" is cover for "I don't want to pay taxes to support a society." This is a pretty unpopular position, so libertarians form alliances with naked authoritarians, like the Christian right:

https://t.co/kbmvG5MRbq 11/
That's how you end up with archlibertarians arguing that the world would be "freer" if women weren't allowed to vote:

https://t.co/bIwXOkJfZH

That democracy itself is incompatible with liberty, since it lets workers vote to limi their bosses:

https://t.co/oL2cBCYJMB 12/
The maintenance of libertarian ideology may not require that you ignore externalities, but it sure helps. 13/
When advocates for "liberty" champion the likes of Augusto Pinochet, who tortured and slaughtered his political enemies by the thousands, they are discounting the lethal externalities of Pinochet's economic "freedoms" to zero. 14/
Rosenthal's critique of contemporary blockchainism starts with this idea of discounted externalities - the foundational contradiction that one's "liberty" exists in a state of pristine isolation, and doesn't harm anyone else. 15/
To get to this, he looks at the history of blockchains. He divides blockchain technology into an older, "permissioned" blockchain technology, invented in 1990, and "permissionless" blockchains, which were invented around 2008 with the first Bitcoin white-paper. 16/
A permissioned blockchain require on a central authority that dictates who can write to the chain. Within that stricture, it produces a highly computationally efficient public ledger that can identify malfunctioning or corrupt nodes in the network and route around them. 17/
Permissionless blockchains, like the Bitcoin blockchain, are born decentralized. No one authority gets to decide who can participate in the ledger's creation - at first. This decentralization comes at a high price, though. 18/
Blockchains are vulnerable to "Sybil attacks" where one attacker impersonates a horde of unconnected actors and takes over the system. 19/
To defend against this, permissionless blockchains make Sybil attacks expensive, so that the most you can steal in a Sybil attack is less than it would cost to pull it off. 20/
The inescapable corollary of this is that using the network has to be expensive - the system has to have a giant electricity bill and hence a massive carbon footprint.

This expense, in turn, compensates miners for the money they pour into defeating Sybil attacks. 21/
These miners get paid in cryptocurrency, and for cryptocurrency to have value, it has to have someone who's willing to buy cryptos with "fiat" - dollars or other easily spent money. 22/
The only reason for someone to trade fiat for those cryptos (apart from making ransomware payments) is as an "investment" - that is, because you think the cryptocurrency's price will rise. Thus these blockchains *require* speculation to function. 23/
All of this means that the majority of blockchain activity is just about maintaining the blockchain - not about buying or selling things. There are only about 27,000 "economically meaningful" Bitcoin transactions in a day - and 75% of those are inter-exchange transactions. 24/
All told, only 2.5% of Bitcoin transactions represent someone buying something from someone (fewer than five per minute, globally).

This profound wastefulness is a feature, not a bug. 25/
It's the expense that keeps Sybil attacks at bay, without centralizing authority over the blockchain, as would be the case with the otherwise vastly more efficient permissioned blockchains that have been around for 30 years. 26/
But here's where Rosenthal unveils the other half of his critique: the drive to maximize the efficiency of mining drives miners to consolidate, in order to attain economies of scale. The more valuable a blockchain is, the more centralized it becomes. 27/
Today, 10% of miners control 90% of the mining. The top 0.1% of miners control 50% of mining. Five mining pools control the majority of Bitcoin mining. Last November, only *two* mining pools controlled the majority of Ethereum mining. 28/
This is the worst of all worlds: a highly volatile blockchain that is incredibly wasteful *and* centralized, with control in the hands of largely anonymous parties who are accountable to no one, who can cheat with impunity.

https://t.co/fO5fciIW3u 29/
So far, the focus of Rosenthal's externality critique has been energy consumption and climate harms. But here he comes to his second externality: e-waste. 30/
To maintain their position in the highly concentrated mining sectors, miners have to run their equipment hard and discard it quickly as it burns out. 31/
The average service life of an ASIC used in blockchain mining is a mere 16 months - whereupon it turned into ewaste, retiring its embodied materials and energy. Other blockchain verification systems, like proof of space-and-time, do the same thing to mass storage devices. 32/
Now, it's true that the finance and tech sectors produce a lot of ewaste on their own. But that's because their equipment wears out despite their best efforts to preserve it. 33/
The foundational premise of cryptocurrency mining is that you are in a race with other miners to discard and replace your equipment as rapidly as possible, to eke out every speed advantage. 34/
The blockchainst response to this is to ignore the ewaste problem and hand-wave the emissions issue by claiming that they're fixing it with offsets. Offsets, meanwhile, are a market for lemons. Most carbon offsets are fairy tales:

https://t.co/xbJRf73SZy 35/
And, as Rosenthal points out, even if your cryptos are being mined with renewables, that is only carbon neutral if you assume "that doing so doesn't compete with more socially valuable uses for renewables, or indeed for power in general." 36/
Blockchainists are aware of the problems with proof of work, and many are calling for a transition to proof of stake, a notionally less climate-intensive way of running a permissionless blockchain. 37/
Rosenthal's critique of proof of stake begins by observing that it drives even more centralization than proof of work. 38/
A proof of stake network allows the people who have the most to tax the transactions of those with less, cementing their dominance and increasing centralization. 39/
So both permissioned and permissionless blockchains end up centralized, but permissionless blockchains - the type beloved of blockchainists - are centralized into unaccountable and often anonymous hands. 40/
So while a permissioned blockchain that is run by a benevolent (or at least accountable) authority can reverse frauds, permissionless blockchains struggle to do this. 41/
This immutability is part of the reason that blockchains and fraud go together like peanut butter and chocolate. Thefts on working permissionless blockchains can't be readily reversed, making them permanent. 42/
Meanwhile, the entities who end up at the top of the centralization pile in these networks can commit thefts by rewriting the "immutable" ledgers. 43/
It's not a purely hypothetical problem. The Steem proof of stake network was compromised by Justin Sun in 2021, who took advantage of the highly centralized staking sector to hijack the Steem blockchain. 44/
The immutability problem is worse in programmable cryptos like Ethereum. The "smart contracts" that operate on these chains are effectively bug bounties whose maximum payout is everything in the wallets connected to them. 45/
The attack surface of programmable money which is connected to social media, Discord servers, standalone wallets, etc, is virtually unbounded. 46/
This is another important point raised by Rosenthal: not only are permissionless blockchains highly concentrated, they're also ineluctably bound up with Web 2.0 technologies. 47/
The fact that Binance conducts two thirds of crypto derivative transactions and half of all spot technologies using browsers and other 2.0 stuff multiplies all the blockchain vulns by all the non-blockchain vulns. 48/
Here Rosenthal cites Adam Levitin's recent, excellent analysis of the legal status of crypto exchange users in bankruptcy proceedings (tldr: if your exchange goes bust, you'll probably get nothing or nearly nothing):

https://t.co/jdtbWjOe3C 49/
Rosenthal's boils this all down to four points:

I. Permissioned blockchains can stop Sybil attacks without cryptocurrency and have no significant externalities; 50/
II. Permissionless blockchains *require* a cryptocurrency to stop Sybil attacks, and this produce major externalities;

III. To be successful, permissionless blockchains require proof-of-work or some other deliberately wasteful system, making externalities inevitable; 51/
IV. Likewise inevitable is that any security system based on wasting resources will create the centralization that permissionless blockchains claim to eliminate. 52/
Rosenthal concludes his talk by affirming that he values decentralization and it is that value that causes him to reject blockchainism. 53/
He reminds us that the billions pouring into the Web3 bubble are bets on attaining scale and dominance - the only reason to pump billions into a blockchain technology is if you think that you can corner a market and make it back. 54/
In other words, Web3 investors see high barriers to entry as a feature, not a bug, and they're committed to centralization. 55/
Image:
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Headquarters (modified)
https://t.co/bq5JJPcDcp

CC BY 2.0:
https://t.co/B930sKCLnf 56/
ETA - If you'd like an unrolled version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on https://t.co/iSBh8s9m7q, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://t.co/5rhyfeEW7L

More from Cory Doctorow RIGHT-CLICKING WORDCEL MENTALITY

Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
When a new president is sworn in, they gets told a lot of secret stuff - launch codes, backup plans, etc. But one of the best-kept presidential secrets is the "Enemies Briefcase," a collection of "presidential emergency action documents" (PEADs).

https://t.co/A6Jh3Gkip7

1/


These aren't just revelations about the fallback plans for things like a nuclear strike - they are a meticulously maintained collection of emergency authorities that the administrative branch claims it is entitled to.

2/

These authorities are analyzed in legal memos that give the president to unilaterally declare an emergency "imposing martial law, suspending habeas corpus, seizing control of the internet, imposing censorship, and incarcerating so-called subversives."

3/

The PEADs were incredibly well-kept secrets, known only through fragmentary redaction failures, appropriaions and declassifications...Until Trump starting bragging on 'em:

"I have the right to do a lot of things that people don’t even know about." -Donald J Trump

4/

PEADs are particularly ominous given how many non-secret emergency powers the president has - more than 100 powers granted by Congress and never rescinded, dating back to the Civil War, from freezing bank accounts to deploying troops domestically.

5/
SOCIETY
Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
20 years on, #BushVGore is back in our discourse - an election stolen by mobs at the polling places, a media blitz, and a Supreme Court at its most antidemocratic and antimajoritarian.

1/


We remember this as an election that the plutes stole, but it's also an election that the Dems gave to them. That's why we're talk about it now. There will be an attempt to steal next month's election. Will we surrender again?

2/

The last surrender led to a war being fought today by the children of the soldiers who were sent into battle on day one. It led to climate inaction, monopolistic concentration, erosions to our right to vote and to our right to protest.

3/

Thanks to that surrender, voter suppression was expanded and reinforced, leading to the election of a fumbling liar who got to appoint more SCOTUS judges in 3.5 years than all Democratic presidents did in the previous quarter


You may be wondering how the Dems surrendered in 2020. For a detailed account of what surrender looks like, read @rsgexp's @jacobin memoir of her time as an @AFLCIO organizer sent to Florida during the
POLITICS
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Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
Inequality requires narrative stabilizers. When you have too little and someone else has more than they can possibly use, simple logic dictates that you should take what they have.

1/


The forbearance exercised by the many when it comes to the wealth of the few isn't down to guards or laws - rather, the laws and the guards are effective because of the STORY, the story of why this is fair, even inevitable.

2/

Think of the story of monarchy and its relationship to the Church: the Church affirms that the monarch (and the aristocracy) was chosen by God ("dieu et mon droit") and the monarchy reciprocates by giving the Church moral and economic power within the kingdom.

3/

Capitalism replaced the story of divine will with a story of a self-correcting complex system: humans are born and raised with a variety of aptitudes and tastes, and at any moment, historical exigencies dictate that some individuals are better suited than others to do well.

4/

When it's railroad time, there are people who were born to oversee the laying of track and the coordination of rail networks: markets find those people, allocate capital to them, and allow them to mobilize that capital to produce shared prosperity for all of us.

5/
CULTURE
Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
The Grand Duchy of Luxembourg is a founding member of the EU, but it's also a rogue state, enabling massive corruption throughout the trading bloc; while Cyprus and Malta will sell any corrupt robber-baron EU citizenship, it's Luxembourg that leads in laundering their money.

1/


As the @TaxJusticeNet's @nickshaxson memorably put it, Luxembourg is "a criminal enterprise with a country attached" - a country where corporations are guaranteed "an easy ride on taxes, disclosure, financial regulations, and criminal

2014's #Luxleaks exposed some of the worst corruption, whereby @PwC worked with Luxembourg officials to secure illegal tax benefits for major corporations and the world's richest

Luxleaks lead to a 2018 EU directive that required member states to publish registers of the true owners of the companies they registered.

4/

Luxembourg published theirs in 2019, and @lemondefr partnered with ten media orgs for a year-long analysis of the register, which was published this week: #Openlux. The findings reveal that Luxleaks was just the tip of the
ALL
Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
2018 was almost the year we won the #RightToRepair.

Instead, 2018 turned out to be the year we lost #R2R: 20 bills defeated in 20 state houses, and it was mostly @apple's fault.

1/


Apple has a problem. As CEO Tim Cook warned his investors at the conclusion of his company's repair-killing lobbying spree, Apple's profits depend on people throwing away their devices, not fixing them.

By monopolizing repairs, Apple doesn't just get to gouge you on parts and service - the real action is in pronouncing your device DOA, beyond repair. Then you have to buy another one.

3/

Other companies lobbied hard against R2R: John Deere, GM, and other monopolists backed Apple's play. But Apple wrote the playbook, coming up with risible bullshit like claims that blocking independent repair is essential to protecting

Apple's anti-repair FUD got picked up and amplified by Big Car in 2020, when they spent millions fighting an automotive R2R ballot initiative in Massachusetts, claiming that letting independent mechanics at your car would lead to your actual MURDER.
BUSINESS

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Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
Bitfinex files discovery in "Yo bro, where did our $800 million go?" action and it is every bit as interesting as you'd expect it to

Here's their CFO describing their agreement (which we know from other litigation was never contractualized because, presumably because money launderers hate paper trails):


Bitfinex's CFO was shocked, shocked to learn that the money launderer they engaged to provide money laundering services while I-swear-to-God-this-is-an-actual-quote "we learned to bank like criminals" may have from time to time lied to banks.


"Institutional constraints" means, here, "We were attempting to avoid velocity checks placed by our banking partners to detect fraud and money laundering, which would have detected our fraud and money laundering."


Money at the speed of code, yadda yadda yadda, the Bitcoin economy is surprisingly blasé when several hundred million dollars is in an interstitial state for months.

In a situation never before encountered by a financial institution: the check was not, in fact, in the mail.
CRYPTO
Matti
Matti
@mattigags
0/ The Great Crypto Reversal

Key difference between the '17 and roaring 20s in crypto is that back then everyone was aping a16z and Naval.

Today everyone apes 3AC wanting to be the next Degen.

'17 was an idealistic *saving the world* kind of thing
20s is *me against the world*

1/ The financialization of crypto means more volatility but pretty long ascend to the top.

Multi-year bull and an ATH surprising even to the biggest bulls as the infinite Cantillon "wealth" is pumped into crypto

Crypto becomes the ultimate Cantillon insider circle-jerk.

2/ This will be one the most iconic ideological reversals in history, comparable to Google who was firmly against advertising but turned into the most powerful ad company ever.


3/ This scenario reminds me of the 90s privatization period in the post-socialist countries.

The regime transition allowed the communist party elite to benefit from the wild west form of "capitalism" that ensued, transferring (and multiplying) their wealth into the new regime.

4/ We are far from Satoshi's original vision . But words and intentions of *prophets* were used to manipulate and corrupt all throughout human history and this time it is no
CRYPTO
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Alex Kr\xfcger
Alex Krüger
@krugermacro
Options used to be close to irrelevant for bitcoin's price.

Until now.

At current price levels, hedging large option notionals has a major impact on price.

Here's a quick thread on options 👇

Let's start with the meaning of delta.

Delta is the rate of change of an option's price relative to a change in the price of its underlying.

For example, the price of a 50 delta option will move 50% as much as the underlying.

For practical purposes, think of it as how much of the underlying you have:

- if long 50 delta call on 1 BTC => long 0.5 BTC
- if long 50 delta put on 1 BTC => short 0.5 BTC
- if short 50 delta call on 1 BTC => short 0.5 BTC
- if short 50 delta put on 1 BTC => long 0.5 BTC

An option where the option's strike (i.e. exercise price) is equal to current spot price is known as an at-the-money option (ATM). ATM options have a delta of 50, while deep in the money options have a delta of close to 100.

Can also think of delta as probability. A 50 delta option has a 50% chance of expiring in the money.

For a call, the higher price goes => the more in the money the call => the higher the delta.

Once delta gets close to 100, odds are ~100% the option will expire in the money.
CRYPTO , CRYPTO TRADING
James Ward
James Ward
@JamesWard73
You may be wondering why @bristoliver rather cryptically RT’d a chart that I posted last night. The answer is not just that he loves quadratic fits on log axes, but that this chart may –and I stress may– hint at a vaccine effect amongst the over 80s THREAD


WARNING: this is a long thread, and it’s a bit of a roller-coaster. We find some apparently strong patterns in the data, and then start to unpick them a bit. So if you start getting excited half way through you might find you’re less excited at the end. But we’ll see…

First we first have to go back a bit. @bristoliver posted a thread a few days ago explaining why, with a constant vaccination rate, a log plot of cases should show a quadratic form. In other words, it should fit an equation like: a + b.x + c.x^2

I meant to link in the model thread there - here it is


the quadratic coefficient – the ‘c’ in that equation – gives an estimate of the % of the population who are being newly protected by the vaccine each day. Please note ‘protected by the vaccine’, not ‘vaccinated’ – as we don't expect 100% protection after the first dose
CRYPTO
Vagobond
Vagobond
@vagobond
This might take a few tweets to get out.
1/ The ICO boom in 2017 and the altszn in early 2018 were unique in that crypto was a largely unregulated space where countless fools were getting lucky on the bad luck of greater fools. This was largely fueled by Ethereum and the ability

2/ to create tokens and contracts from thin air but it got thrust from the post halving BTC bull market and the unique phenomenon of 'crypto kitties' which were both like booster rockets and drew huge media attention to the entire crypto space

3/ Crypto wasn't new in 2017-18 but it was new to most of the people who were seeing it on the evening news, CNBC, etc. Seeing construction workers buying new trucks with crypto riches and idiotic crypto-rich in lambos and moving to Puerto Rico -

4/ - these images captivated lots of people and inspired the idea of 'I missed out before, I don't want to miss out this time' in relation to stocks, internet, tech, real estate, and more. The important ingredient was 'If those people can do it, I can do it'

5/ The inclusion of a character like John McAfee and the entire ICO industry created a greedy free for all where for every good project there were fifty worthless ones - but sometimes, a diamond emerged from the shit
CRYPTO

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Speech Delay is most common in children nowadays

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https://t.co/uo4sGp7mUm

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Module 1

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# Using Google Colab

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1. Project 1742 (EcoHealth/DTRA)
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Duration: 24/10/2018-23 /10/2019

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https://t.co/680CdD8uug


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https://t.co/u6aUeWBGEN


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