Commodity Supercycles.

Hit the 're-tweet' & help us educate more investors.

A micro thread 🧵👇

1/ What is a commodity supercycle?

They are near decade long periods where commodities trade well above their price trend

supercycles are rare

Going back 100 years, Only 3-4 supercycles have been identified & each was tied to a transformational period of economic development.
2/ A one-two year rally in commodity prices is NOT a supercycle, rather could just a rebound from an imp. event as what even happened after the 2008 great recession.
3/ Two commodity supercycles have occurred since the end of World War II.

The 1st started in the mid of 1960s & lasted through the 1970s.

Likely driven by a collapsing US dollar, higher inflation & 2 oil price shocks.
4/ Why US dollar is an important monitorable?

Raw materials are almost always priced in US dollars.

When the value of the dollar drops, it costs more dollars to buy commodities. At the same time, it costs a lesser amount of other currencies when the dollar is moving lower.
5/ The last supercycle lasted from the mid-1990s until the 2008 financial crisis.

Reason? 'BRIC'

During this time, Brazil, Russia, India & China (BRIC: 40% of the world's population) were on a path of rapid industrialisation, which required an abnormal amount of raw materials.
6/
So, How many people predicted the last supercycles? Not many.

Supercycles are best defined in hindsight.

So, it will be years from now before we truly know whether we are witnessing the start of a new commodity supercycle.

End of Thread.

More from ᴀɴɪsʜ ᴍᴏᴏɴᴋᴀ

More from Commodities

You May Also Like

Trump is gonna let the Mueller investigation end all on it's own. It's obvious. All the hysteria of the past 2 weeks about his supposed impending firing of Mueller was a distraction. He was never going to fire Mueller and he's not going to


Mueller's officially end his investigation all on his own and he's gonna say he found no evidence of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election.

Democrats & DNC Media are going to LITERALLY have nothing coherent to say in response to that.

Mueller's team was 100% partisan.

That's why it's brilliant. NOBODY will be able to claim this team of partisan Democrats didn't go the EXTRA 20 MILES looking for ANY evidence they could find of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election

They looked high.

They looked low.

They looked underneath every rock, behind every tree, into every bush.

And they found...NOTHING.

Those saying Mueller will file obstruction charges against Trump: laughable.

What documents did Trump tell the Mueller team it couldn't have? What witnesses were withheld and never interviewed?

THERE WEREN'T ANY.

Mueller got full 100% cooperation as the record will show.