BC CLIMATE CHANGE
Saved by @Alex1Powell

It's (nearly) five years since the Paris Agreement was gaveled through… but was it any good? Tricky question. Based on emissions, temperature data and impacts, no. *But...* (thread)

 The team at @SystemIQ_LTD have crunched the numbers & reviewed how far + fast sectors have shifted since 2015. Their take is the global economy could be a decade away from seismic tipping points that see the world move fast towards low carbon.
In 2015, zero-carbon technologies and business models could rarely compete with incumbent carbon-solutions. In 2020, zero-carbon solutions are competitive in sectors representing around 25% of emissions. In 2030 the figure’s looking like 70%.
What does this mean for a COVID-smashed world, where 2021 is shaping up to be a hellish mix of recessions and mass unemployment? Well, the 2020s could see a net increase of 35 million low carbon jobs if governments roll out the right policies + invest wisely.
Can the low carbon acceleration be pinned to Paris? Not entirely, but partly. In 2014 no-one talked of net zero targets. Now 120+ countries either have these plans or are working on them. By mid 2021 the US, China, EU, UK, Japan, Korea, Canada will have these targets.
The Paris “ratchet” is nationally determined, not imposed by the UN. Leaders get to decide. They are increasingly deciding to be more ambitious. Cities and regions are joining the party: well over 50% of global GDP now has Paris-aligned targets.
A climate-safe planet is not assured, but technology shifts fast. In 2014, @IEA forecast average #solar prices would reach $0.05/kWh by 2050. It took only 6 *not* 36 years to hit that price. Solar and wind will be the cheapest form of new generation everywhere later this decade.
Before 2024, electric vehicles (EVs) will beat internal combustion on sticker price parity, a fraction of the maintenance, unparalleled acceleration, and near equal range. Combustion engines could go the same way as DVDs. Once an innovation, now killed by @netflix.
It’s not just power and EVs. Today, there are 66 zero-emissions shipping pilots. 200 electric airplanes are in development. SystemIQ reckon electric aviation will be commercial by the mid 2020s — 2030s for larger planes. Low carbon steel, cement, aluminium pilots are a reality.
Big oil sees the writing on the wall, quitting long-life projects: since 2014, the average lifetime of major industry projects has declined from 50 to 30 years and the trend is accelerating. Money spent on dirty, old sectors could be a dollar that an investor might not get back.
Yeah, but. The 2020 @UNEP #EmissionsGap is bleak. A thread by @Peters_Glen this week highlighted governments have largely failed to use COVID stimulus packages to go green not dirty. Dollars have been poured into fossil fuel industry black holes instead of backing the future.
Temperatures continue to rise, impacts mount, climate finance flows go down, the whole concept of multilateralism looks shaky. And yet, to rip off the @SYSTEMIQ_Ltd report’s Executive Summary, ‘The case for enlightened self-interest has never been stronger’.
Tangible shifts are taking place in the face of wealthy and powerful incumbent forces. External elements are moving faster than many realise. The digitisation of the economy and connected world is accelerating learning. Low interest rates benefit investors in new capital.
And yes, public opinion is shifting. Consider elections for the EU Presidency, UK, New Zealand and US were all won in 2019–2020 on a strong #climate platform. Polling (I defer to @LeoBarasi on this) shows strong support for greener spaces, cleaner air, a safer environment.
It's not to say we’ll be fine on climate, that all investors in the City of London and Wall Street are piling into sustainable investments - @MCL1965 @JAmbachtsheer @stevewaygood @AssaadRazzouk @JG_climate @CampanaleMark are the ones to follow here
It’s not to say the changes aren’t scary for many who rely on incumbent high carbon sectors. Govts need solid transition plans (like @Teresaribera's in Spain). But change is happening, and we either accept that and swim with the flow, or ultimately we get swept along.
Final thought: Tackling the #climate crisis is often now referred to as a ‘sprint’. Sprinters typically take 40–50 metres to hit top speed. Post Paris, the low carbon athlete is - what - in the 10–20m transition zone phase? Heads coming up, bodies straightening, legs powering.
Key rivals — impacts, temperatures, emissions — are ahead. But the low carbon runner isn’t close to top speed. The 2020s are when they turn up the (green) gas. A decade of transition and truth awaits.
Full report here... @usainbolt will love it https://t.co/SEWhBo1rJP

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It was a dark and stormy night...

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If they were white, we’d call them “founding fathers” but they were slaves who were about to change the world

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Voudou priestess Cecile Fatiman danced with a knife. Then she split a pig and everyone drank the pig’s blood from a wooden bowl while enslaved priest Cutty Boukman prayed:

“The god who created the earth; who created the sun that gives us light. The god who holds up the ocean;

who makes the thunder roar. Our god who has ears to hear. You who are hidden in the clouds, who watch us from where you are. You see all that the white has made us suffer. The white man’s god asks him to commit crimes. But the god within us wants to do good...

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The "Covid emergency" will never be over. It will mutate and seek out new missions when this particular virus threat abates, repurposing its funding and clinging to its power. They're already talking up the "next pandemic" and how we must forever remain at DEFCON 2 to be ready.

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True believers, meanwhile, will wear their masks with grim determination and scowl ostentatiously at everyone who refuses to join them. It's a new virtue signal that will not go away any time soon. Mask scolding is a quick, easy, heady power rush.

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I previously 👇 documented 20 mechanisms through which climate change is 𝘢𝘭𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 disrupting food production.

Below I am adding to the list including several newly documented mechanisms. 

 *thread*


Several primary impacts relate to altered soil & plant chemistry & biology:

1. Disruption of the phosphorous cycle - the second most vital element for plants after nitrogen


2. Decreased content of key nutrients in major

3. Reduced chill hours required for many plants to bloom normally in the

Other additional primary impacts include:

4. Fossil fuel pollution impacts on crops - this is not a result of climate change per se, but is included since it is due to the same root cause (fossil fuel use):
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the cons and the alternatives, to try and decide rationally, which is the best approach for our plant on the Bryn Arw.

It has become the accepted norm in the UK that to plant a tree, you need to put your sapling in the ground and then wrap a plastic tree guard around it.

This is simply ‘how it’s done’ now. This practice uses a huge amount of plastic; worse still, it disperses plastic extremely efficiently around the countryside. In some rural places, un-retrieved tree guards are by far the biggest source of plastic pollution.

And yet the first commercial plastic tree guards only came on the market 38 years ago. There are many perfectly healthy woodlands and trees that are older than this, and which became established without plastic – which begs the question: do we really need guards?


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