๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš’๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ serious #brexit story alert - companies now starting to see penny drop on what rules of origin does to supply chains (food for example) but Brussels seems deaf to both EU & U.K. pleading. A bellwether? ๐Ÿ˜ฌ Stay with me. 1/

So first the problem: its a tad complicated but basically goods that are imported into UK and then 'hubbed' onwards into Ireland or other parts of the EU are facing full EU tariffs - this is particularly bad for food stuffs, which attract high tariffs. Why is this? /2
It's a function of the Rules of Origin clauses that mean that goods have to sufficiently "originate" in the UK to qualify for zero-tariff entry to EU (and vice versa).

But to qualify, you have to do something to the goods - process them or add value - not just punt them on /3
The brilliant @AnnaJerzewska does a better job than me of explaining, but the important thing is that this is a nightmare for companies that 'hub' /distribute products through the UK - and that's both EU and UK companies /4
@AnnaJerzewska So both the @Foodanddrinkfed and EU groups like @CAOBISCO_EU (chocs etc) say they want the EU Commission to fix this with a derogation/waiver that takes into account proximity and interdependence of EU/UK supply chains. /5
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU Because as @AnnaJerzewska points out, in a usual FTA (say with Japan or Canada) good don't arrive from the EU customs territory (or vice versa) and then bounce straight back across the border. It's a pretty unique situation. /6
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU It's also tough on Ireland that gets a lot of goods via UK. As Paul Kelly, director of Food Drink Ireland @FoodDrink_Irl the main lobby group for the sector. โ€œCompanies are beginning to raise this across the industry." /7
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU @FoodDrink_Irl Now. It is true that goods could "transit" through UK to Ireland/EU - so they aren't imported into UK, they're just 'passing through' - but that, it seems, is not how the system currently works. /8
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU @FoodDrink_Irl According to both @AnnaJerzewska and @SamuelMarcLowe the Commission could - if it wanted - apply a derogation/waiver sorting this out, based on previous precedents. Per Mr Lowe: โ€œIf the EU wants to resolve the issue, it could do so pretty easily with an extra clarification." /9
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU @FoodDrink_Irl @SamuelMarcLowe So what did the EU tell my colleague @Sam1Fleming when he asked officials whether this was going to be sorted?

โ€œYou canโ€™t expect Brexit not to have consequences. The UK wonโ€™t be a distribution hub for the EU any more. EU businesses will need to stop relying on UK hubs.โ€ /10
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU @FoodDrink_Irl @SamuelMarcLowe @Sam1Fleming So to translate from the Bruxellois, that means "touch". Brexit means Brexit mon brave. etc etc.

Not exactly clear how you quantify the impacts of this - am told clothing industry also hugely impacted on this - but the EU position seems pretty stark. /11
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU @FoodDrink_Irl @SamuelMarcLowe @Sam1Fleming We shall see over next year or two whether those who reckoned the barebones deal @DavidGHFrost negotiated is really something to "build on" but this doesn't feel that encouraging! ENDS

More from Peter Foster

Another head-banging day for the ยฃ112bn UK creative sector that is starting to ingest how difficult #Brexit is going to make their lives - and how little the government is really willing to do to fix the lack of a 'mobility' chapter in the EU-UK trade deal. Quick update.../1

First Equity @EquityUK put out a letter to @BorisJohnson warning that #brexit was a "towering hurdle" (you'd want Brian Blessed reading that part) to UK actors plying their trade in EU - a double whammy with #COVID19 /2

https://t.co/mXjTAISqZk


@BorisJohnson One third of Equity members say they've seen job ads asking for EU passport holders: "Before, we were able to travel to Europe visa-free. Now we have to pay hundreds of pounds, fill in form after form, and spend weeks waiting for approval" /3

@BorisJohnson Worth recalling that all this goes back to the UK desire NOT to have a 'mobility' provision within the TCA - all part of 'ending Free Movement' and the professional services folk - including musicians, actors, fashion models etc -are all victim of

@BorisJohnson What's the government going to do about all this? Good question, which brings us to todays @CommonsDCMS hearing in which the Culture Minister Caroline Dinenage @cj_dinenage frankly pin-balled around the issues /5
Remember the government wanting to "follow the science"? It is remarkable how far it is ignoring scientific advice on this new ultra-infectious variant of #Covid-19 by keeping schools open... both SAGE and @imperialcollege issuing warnings on school closures. Stay with me. /1

First the @imperialcollege paper, which finds that the new variant is still being ultra-infectious despite November lockdowns - link here, but cases of new variant trebled in SEast, even under lockdown /2

https://t.co/fdvuVX3OkW


The paper then notes (given schools were open and under 20s are most infected): "A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." /3


This echoes what govt science advisory SAGE cmme told ministers on Dec 22...that it was "highly unlikely" the R number can be kept below 1 (cases falling, it is currently 1.1-1.3) with schools open /4

https://t.co/yV5qcSkErJ


But on Dec 30 Gavin Williamson announce primaries would go back, and secondary schools would have staggered return while testing regime (lateral flow, not that sensitive) was set up - see statement here

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Simple and effective way 2 make Money


Idea 1:- Use pivot level like 14800 in case of nifty and sell 14800straddle monthly expiry (365+335) exit if nifty closes on daily basis below S1 or above R1

After closing below S1 if it closes above S1 next day or any day enter the same position again vice versa for R1

Idea2:- Use R1 and S1 corresponding strikes multiple
Incase of R1 15337 take 15300ce
N in case of S1 14221 use 14200pe
Sell both and hold till expiry or exit if nifty closes below S1 or above R1 around closing
If the same bounces above S1 and falls below R1 re-enfer same strikes

Use same criteria for nifty, usdinr and banknifty

(This is must)Use this margin rule for 1lot banknifty pair keep 4Lax margin
For nifty one lot keep 3Lax
For usdinr 100lots keep 4Lax

I bet you if you do this on consistent basis your ROI will be more than 70% on yearly basis.

Couldn't explain easier than this

Criticisms are most welcomed.