๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš’๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ serious #brexit story alert - companies now starting to see penny drop on what rules of origin does to supply chains (food for example) but Brussels seems deaf to both EU & U.K. pleading. A bellwether? ๐Ÿ˜ฌ Stay with me. 1/

So first the problem: its a tad complicated but basically goods that are imported into UK and then 'hubbed' onwards into Ireland or other parts of the EU are facing full EU tariffs - this is particularly bad for food stuffs, which attract high tariffs. Why is this? /2
It's a function of the Rules of Origin clauses that mean that goods have to sufficiently "originate" in the UK to qualify for zero-tariff entry to EU (and vice versa).

But to qualify, you have to do something to the goods - process them or add value - not just punt them on /3
The brilliant @AnnaJerzewska does a better job than me of explaining, but the important thing is that this is a nightmare for companies that 'hub' /distribute products through the UK - and that's both EU and UK companies /4
@AnnaJerzewska So both the @Foodanddrinkfed and EU groups like @CAOBISCO_EU (chocs etc) say they want the EU Commission to fix this with a derogation/waiver that takes into account proximity and interdependence of EU/UK supply chains. /5
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU Because as @AnnaJerzewska points out, in a usual FTA (say with Japan or Canada) good don't arrive from the EU customs territory (or vice versa) and then bounce straight back across the border. It's a pretty unique situation. /6
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU It's also tough on Ireland that gets a lot of goods via UK. As Paul Kelly, director of Food Drink Ireland @FoodDrink_Irl the main lobby group for the sector. โ€œCompanies are beginning to raise this across the industry." /7
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU @FoodDrink_Irl Now. It is true that goods could "transit" through UK to Ireland/EU - so they aren't imported into UK, they're just 'passing through' - but that, it seems, is not how the system currently works. /8
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU @FoodDrink_Irl According to both @AnnaJerzewska and @SamuelMarcLowe the Commission could - if it wanted - apply a derogation/waiver sorting this out, based on previous precedents. Per Mr Lowe: โ€œIf the EU wants to resolve the issue, it could do so pretty easily with an extra clarification." /9
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU @FoodDrink_Irl @SamuelMarcLowe So what did the EU tell my colleague @Sam1Fleming when he asked officials whether this was going to be sorted?

โ€œYou canโ€™t expect Brexit not to have consequences. The UK wonโ€™t be a distribution hub for the EU any more. EU businesses will need to stop relying on UK hubs.โ€ /10
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU @FoodDrink_Irl @SamuelMarcLowe @Sam1Fleming So to translate from the Bruxellois, that means "touch". Brexit means Brexit mon brave. etc etc.

Not exactly clear how you quantify the impacts of this - am told clothing industry also hugely impacted on this - but the EU position seems pretty stark. /11
@AnnaJerzewska @Foodanddrinkfed @CAOBISCO_EU @FoodDrink_Irl @SamuelMarcLowe @Sam1Fleming We shall see over next year or two whether those who reckoned the barebones deal @DavidGHFrost negotiated is really something to "build on" but this doesn't feel that encouraging! ENDS

More from Peter Foster

Remember the government wanting to "follow the science"? It is remarkable how far it is ignoring scientific advice on this new ultra-infectious variant of #Covid-19 by keeping schools open... both SAGE and @imperialcollege issuing warnings on school closures. Stay with me. /1

First the @imperialcollege paper, which finds that the new variant is still being ultra-infectious despite November lockdowns - link here, but cases of new variant trebled in SEast, even under lockdown /2

https://t.co/fdvuVX3OkW


The paper then notes (given schools were open and under 20s are most infected): "A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." /3


This echoes what govt science advisory SAGE cmme told ministers on Dec 22...that it was "highly unlikely" the R number can be kept below 1 (cases falling, it is currently 1.1-1.3) with schools open /4

https://t.co/yV5qcSkErJ


But on Dec 30 Gavin Williamson announce primaries would go back, and secondary schools would have staggered return while testing regime (lateral flow, not that sensitive) was set up - see statement here
Good to see @Marthakearney on @BBCr4today taking @pritipatel to task over the numbers of lorries in Dover - now 1,500 in Stack (M20) and Manston airfield combined - rather more than 170 that @BorisJohnson said yesterday, baffling haulage groups /1

@BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson She won't say whether lorry drivers will have to take a PCR test (long-winded, requires RNA extraction etc. 24-48hrs) rather than much faster (and less sensitive) lateral flow test. Short Strait will struggle to operates with PCR tests. You'd need one yesterday for tomorrow! /2

@BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson Because of the delays that have empty lorries already stuck in the queues, in an earlier interview British Retail Consortium @the_brc Andrew Opie said fresh food shortages would occur within days because lorries couldn't get back to Spain etc to reload /3

@BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson @the_brc Haulage experts like @RHADuncanB are always at pains to explain that the lorries at Dover (and GB-IE, for that matter) are flowing in a continuous cycle. More than 85% are from EU countries. So if you block one side, or artery the whole system starts to grind to a halt/4

@BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson @the_brc @RHADuncanB This episode has been a bit of a teaching moment, exposing the canard that the UK can unilaterally "take back control of its borders". It can't. Borders are membranes. Traffic flows in both directions. Actions by one side impact the other - as French move has demonstrated. /5
BREAK: ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ The UK rejects Dover funding bid to double French passport booths via @FT - long queues ahead...as other ports also donโ€™t get money they asked for to build #brexit border. Stay with me/1 thread


So what is this all about? Well back in October the govt announced a ยฃ200m Port Infrastructure Fund - details below - for ports to get ready for the new trade processes for #Brexit border. Dealing with those 215m extra customs decs etc..

Today we find out what everyone got - but it turns out that 54 ports asked for more than ยฃ450m - so a LOT have been bitterly disappointed. Not just Dover (on which more in a second)...they are furious the government is not willing to fully fund the very borders they mandated /3

So here is the list of what everyone got - 41 ports had winning bids totaling just over ยฃ194m - but you'll note that Dover got...wait for it...ยฃ33k. No, that is not a type. Thirty-three thousand pounds. They asked for ยฃ33m!! Why? Well to build new passport lanes. /4


Why? Because as an @NAOorguk report warned in November the Govt's 'reasonable worst case scenario' for delays at Dover for passenger traffic was "one to two hours" and "much longer" in the summer. Eeek. Happy hols everyone! /5

https://t.co/K77Is5tfxk

More from Brexit

A further thread on the EU/UK musicians/visa for paid work issue (the issue is paid work: travelling to sing or play at eg a charity event for free can be done without a visa).


The position that we now have now (no relevant provisions under the TCA) is complicated. For EU musicians visiting the UK see


In essence the UK permits foreign (including EU) nationals to stay up to 30 days to carry out paid engagements, but they must (a) prove they are a professional musician and (b) be invited by an established UK business.

Either condition could be tricky for a young musician starting out and wanting to play gigs. And 30 days isnโ€™t long enough for a part in a show with a run.

Longer stays require a T5 visa - which generally requires you to be in a shortage occupation (play an instrument not played in the UK?) or to have an established international reputation.

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