BC BREXIT
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

The first working day of the new UK-EU relationship. We're going to hear a lot this year from all sides (remain and Brexit in UK, EU, etc) using any possible scrap of evidence. But what we need to look for is trends, over time, so a few to think about in this thread... 1/

 Obvious disruption or reduction to UK-EU trade flow. Here we may be thinking e.g. of a permanent 10% fall in traffic, or regular queues, or indeed no change. And apart from goods, the same with individual travel, for work, residence etc... 2/
As a reminder we're not expecting permanent scenes like those of the week before Christmas when borders were closed. But 5-10% reductions in UK-EU traffic would not seem to be out of line with economic forecasts of a hit to the UK economy. 3/
Then we'll need to look at whether UK-EU trade is being substituted by UK-non EU trade. This probably should happen to a degree, and in theory efficiencies could come this way. But its also possible that all UK trade falls, with the UK no longer an EU entry point. 4/
Inward investment is another key post-Brexit indicator. There isn't a single obvious data set here, but the impression of the last four years has been a fall off in manufacturing, but not in services, particularly tech. Continuation would suggest economy tilting to services. 5/
The some policy indicators. The first is UK regulatory divergence. There's a clear link between this and EU market access, see for example our emergency data adequacy while we don't change our rules. Financial services equivalence. So diverge or not? 6/
We'll hear a lot about Free Trade Agreements, but numbers are not a useful indicator. Better to ask what UK economic activity is facilitated that was not previously happening, or vice versa, what is now closed. So far we are heavily net negative because of Europe. 7/
In trade policy generally, another useful indicator is being able to do something difficult. There was talk before Christmas of a deal with the US to end their penalty tariffs on Scotch. Would have been an impressive win against the odds. Didn't happen. 8/
Doubtless folk will look at GDP, but that's going to be hard this year because of covid recovery, and I already have doubts over the interaction between this and financial services (not as bad as Ireland, but even so). But some of the detail of course interesting. 9/
Look, lorry queue! new investment announced 6 times over! will be a more fun game to play. But the reality is the UK economy is likely to change as a result of rising trade barriers to Europe, but how is unclear. Question of trying to read that. 10/ end

More from David Henig

David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Brexit. UK-EU talks. Let's try to explain why we're in such a state, of increased risk of no deal, moving away from the fish and playing fields which are the detail but not the answer, to differing philosophies and divorce parallels that might just help... 1/

First, with apologies to those concerned, we need to go beyond those saying this is the inevitable path to deal / no-deal. Half of them will be right and I'll definitely be wrong (don't worry, I'm hedged in wine bets), but it wasn't inevitable, typical, or necessary. 2/

I'll also ignore the content of any deal, which has been clear for months, the UK compromises on level playing field, the EU on fish. Something so obvious really isn't the fundamental issue. Could, as some not noted for their perspicacity have said, be done in an afternoon. 3/

Some truth in the idea that flounces and playing the tough cop are a part of trade negotiations. But equally as we're in about the 5th pass of these, I think it has ceased to be helpful. Either side could already have cut the deal having shown their toughness. 4/

Some fundamentals then, that we've forgotten. First, the trade deal that will lead to much less free trade than before. The incentive structures, the ability to create a win-win, are inevitably going to be different to a normal deal. 5/
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Morning. And its Groundhog Day today. https://t.co/gRs4Dc8RH2


Some useful threads will follow, first on the Northern Ireland protocol, where unfettered is still being defined...


And on fish and level playing field. The latter seems, has always seemed, the most problematic, because the UK has apparently ruled out any compromise on shared minumum levels even if not automatic. That would be a deal breaker, but seems... unnecessary.


Your reminder closing complex deals is never easy. But there are ways to facilitate and EU is good at doing this if you meet their red lines. But still the biggest concern that the UK never understood level playing field terms are fundamental to the EU.


In the UK, one man's decision. Allegedly backed by a Cabinet who in reality will be quite happy to blame the PM either way. The temptation to send Michael Gove to seal the deal and end his leadership ambitions must be there...
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
"Fail to prepare, prepare to fail" has gone from being an irritating statement trotted out on a training course to a description of the UK government's modus operandi. And as well as on covid restrictions we're seeing it in EU negotiations - deal or no-deal. And here's why... 1/

The UK's goal in EU negotiations is to declare victory / sovereignty. Sounds good. But the problem is that there will always be winners and losers in a big trade deal, because it covers everything and involves compromising with the other side. An immediate problem. 2/

Take fish, on which apparently talks are stuck. No deal means we regain full control of our waters. Victory! And sell the fish where? EU tariffs and checks. Not victory. So share waters? But then, defeat! Point being, if you don't explain, the result will disappoint. 3/

We don't want the EU setting our rules and regulations. So minimal sovereignty provisions. No-deal and victory! But then what about the car manufacturers no longer viable? Ok, compromise. But then no win on sovereignty, or perhaps call it "freedom clauses"... 4/

Northern Ireland, customs checks, rules of origin, security cooperation and so on... all inevitably to require compromise. But if your game was all about victory and sovereignty, then what? Not make a decision perhaps? 5/
ECONOMY
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Not the easiest to follow, but for those interested in the big picture of trade relations between US, EU and China this exchange between @alanbeattie and @IanaDreyer is an essential read. Real debate on key issues, and good points on both sides.


Also reading this from @gideonrachman on EU-China. My view (cynically?) - that EU-China is a deal that makes a lot of sense given a probably unresolvable trade policy superpower triangle with the US, and best for the EU to move while China will.

The US and EU roughly agree on China that it should do some things differently, but not really the details of what those are. Meanwhile the EU and US have long standing trade policy differences, which neither (or their key stakeholders) prioritise resolving.

For the EU, the China deal has sent a message to the new US administration, you can't just tell us what to do. And delivered some (probably marginal in reality) benefits to business. For China, this is the 3rd deal with EU or US in 12 months. Pretty clear strategy there.

The key assumption that lies at the heart of too much writing on EU-US relations is that the two should cooperate on trade. After 25 years of largely failing to do so, I'd suggest we might want to question that a bit more deeply.
ECONOMY
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
As promised, a little story. Of how the EU ask of the UK on the level playing field is indeed new, how that came about, and why we should have been able to deal with this a lot better. And how, indirectly, David Frost is one of the reasons. Beware, contains analysis... 1/

Let us go back 5 years to the height of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) discussions. As you may recall, by 2015 TTIP was about as popular in the EU as allegedly the EU is these days in the red wall. What, thought the EU and Member States, could be done? 2/

TTIP will be more popular, declared more than one insider, if we show there are tough labour and environment protections against undercutting by the nefarious and probably untrustworthy US. That, optimistically they said, will get NGOs on side. 3/

But there was a problem with EU level playing field provisions in 2015. The unit of DG Trade responsible absolutely did not believe anything should be enforceable. Pages of loose commitments, fine. Add more! But apparently enforcement was best done through a good chat. 4/

Now such soft-touch EU enforcement of level playing fields was probably designed particularly for developing countries, where sanctions were seen as unfairly penalising struggling business and individuals for the actions of a terrible government. Not the US. 5/
EU & UK

More from Brexit

George Riddell
George Riddell
@GeorgeMRiddell
1/ Quick thread. At the end of the third week of Brexit being "done", I can only say that I'm exhausted.

Immediate pressures on companies who have been trading goods have been on grappling with all of the new customs and regulatory requirements.


2/ It's clear that agrifood businesses have been the hardest hit due to the SPS checks and other requirements.

But for others, the shift from a distributor model to importer/exporter has been a challenge. This hasn't been helped by certain IT system not working as planned.

3/ So are these "teething problems"? Companies are grappling with the new systems & formalities.

Some are, but many others aren't.

Worth noting that freight volumes are still below average. But stockpiles are running low, coming weeks are going to be interesting.

4/ Two issues that are immediately facing many businesses that won't be addressed by sorting this teething period.

First, many businesses are facing the largest shift in their cost base in a generation.

5/ This comes from the cost of dealing with the customs procedures, upgrading IT systems to manage the new requirements, setting up European operating centres to comply with regulatory requirements, new immigration costs, the list goes on.
BREXIT , BREXIT
Alliance of British Entrepreneurs
Alliance of British En...
@AllianceBE
🇬🇧 Happy Independence Day patriots 🇬🇧

Its Day 1 outside the #EU so we wanted to remind you of all the things Remainers told you would happen on #Brexit day.

Never in the history of political movements has one side fibbed so spectacularly and (at times) hilariously.

[THREAD]

[1] How are you all feeling today...down there?🍆

Well please be careful because now we've left the EU we are all due waves of super gonorrehoea.

Wrapping yourself in the #EU flag and putting #FBPE in your bio is the only known

[2] Are you hungry? Well get used to it.

We were fed (excuse the pun) stories as late as November 2020 that #Brexit would lead to 60% reduction in haulage meaning 'months' of food shortages.

[3] Forget those foreign holidays unless you fancy swimming the Channel.

As late as October 2020 we were told that all flights would be grounded.

Both sides quietly agreed to contingencies in December. Quelle

[4] In March 2020 as COVID hit Europe, we were told the only way to obtain ventilators was by joining the #EU scheme. We refused and Remainers screeched that the Government was putting Brexit over breathing.

The EU scheme obtained...zero...ventilators.
BREXIT
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Tony Yates
Tony Yates
@t0nyyates
The fuel injected Brexiter comments on the EU's vaccine problems miss many points.

1) no-one wanted to get out of the EU or the single market to protect ourselves better against a pandemic. See Brexit Tory controlled government policy 2016-2020 regarding the NHS and pandemic preparedness.

2) we could have, and, perhaps thanks to the need to genuflect to nationalists, or out of pragmatic needs, chosen to go our own way on procurement even within the EU.

3) none of this explains why it's good to be outside the single market, restricting our trade and making us poorer.

4) the implicit celebration of the vaccine nationalist cause, seemingly [but not actually] permitted by Brexit, ignores how this game plays out, namely:
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So. The hunt is on in Whitehall for #brexit dividends...to show some clear value in the freedoms given by Brexit.

As we report today one area being looked at is workers' rights...but it is politically difficult territory.

No cabinet decisions have been taken, but per sources, three potential areas been identified in Business Dept...

- the 48 Hour Week
- holiday pay/overtime calculations
- new EU rules on reporting hours worked...

All potentially possible post #brexit /2

The government says it has no intention of “lowering” workers’ rights....and notes that UK has actually gold-plated many EU regulations...BUT (think of government saying it won't "lower" animal welfare standards)...the devil will all be in the detail, if and when it comes /3

So the government likes to talk about ensuring workers’ rights are protected but ALSO making sure businesses has freedoms and flexibility to grow...so one man's reduction in rights is another freedom to get richer/work harder/be more prosperous. It depends how you sell it. /4

So take this 2017 story from The Sun on the cash bonanza that will be rained down on hardworking families by Brexiteers' (long standing) desire to scrap the 48-hour week. Overtime booooom..../5

https://t.co/QLqQ7rCzkv
BREXIT
The Troll Zoo
The Troll Zoo
@TrollZoo
1. This beautiful and thought provoking piece of 21st century art was shared widely in anti-EU Facebook groups, Twitter replies to journalists and elsewhere online, in 2016.

Is it an untrackable, untraceable, Cambridge Analytica-style, fake?


2. The design is obviously substandard, to be charitable .

But look a bit closer, it appears intentionally bad.

3. A lightning strike blended through a Union Jack is not the work of a beginner, in Photoshop.


4. Is it believable that a designer capable of creating that effect in Photoshop, would also be virtually illiterate?

Literate enough to spell “Sovereignty” correctly.


5. But not literate enough to spell “corrupt”.
BREXIT

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Pangolins, September 2019 and PLA are the key to this mystery
Stay Tuned!


1. Yang


2. A jacobin capuchin dangling a flagellin pangolin on a javelin while playing a mandolin and strangling a mannequin on a paladin's palanquin, said Saladin
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3. Yigang Tong
https://t.co/CYtqYorhzH
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4. YT Interview
Some bats & pangolins carry viruses related with SARS-CoV-2, found in SE Asia and in Yunnan, & the pangolins carrying SARS-CoV-2 related viruses were smuggled from SE Asia, so there is a possibility that SARS-CoV-2 were coming from
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1/ Something strange is happening with people’s sex lives. 20-somethings are having sex later and less frequently than previous generations. I spent several months digging into this for @theatlantic. https://t.co/5ehzmWY9wi


2/ This phenomenon—I’m calling it a Sex Recession—really surprised me. It seemed improbable in the age of Tinder, digital porn, and attitudes that are generally permissive and sex-positive.

3/ What’s happening isn’t exclusively American: Similar trends are being observed in other countries, including Japan, Australia, the U.K., Finland, and the Netherlands.


4/ One cause is obvious: Adults under 35 are less likely to be living with a partner than in recent decades, and more likely to be living with their parents—which, it’s safe to say, isn’t great for one’s sex life.

5/ But I also found other explanations, each with profound implications. The first, unsurprisingly, has to do with internet enticements. Netflix and other online entertainment may be substituting for sex.
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V\u0936\u0941\u0926\u094d\u0927\u093f
Vशुद्धि...
@V_Shuddhi
The first ever world map was sketched thousands of years ago by Indian saint
“Ramanujacharya” who simply translated the following verse from Mahabharat and gave the world its real face

In Mahabharat,it is described how 'Maharishi Ved Vyasa' gave away his divine vision to Sanjay


Dhritarashtra's charioteer so that he could describe him the events of the upcoming war.

But, even before questions of war could begin, Dhritarashtra asked him to describe how the world looks like from space.

This is how he described the face of the world:

सुदर्शनं प्रवक्ष्यामि द्वीपं तु कुरुनन्दन। परिमण्डलो महाराज द्वीपोऽसौ चक्रसंस्थितः॥
यथा हि पुरुषः पश्येदादर्शे मुखमात्मनः। एवं सुदर्शनद्वीपो दृश्यते चन्द्रमण्डले॥ द्विरंशे पिप्पलस्तत्र द्विरंशे च शशो महान्।

—वेद व्यास, भीष्म पर्व, महाभारत


Meaning:-

हे कुरुनन्दन ! सुदर्शन नामक यह द्वीप चक्र की भाँति गोलाकार स्थित है, जैसे पुरुष दर्पण में अपना मुख देखता है, उसी प्रकार यह द्वीप चन्द्रमण्डल में दिखायी देता है। इसके दो अंशो मे पीपल और दो अंशो मे विशाल शश (खरगोश) दिखायी देता है।


Meaning: "Just like a man sees his face in the mirror, so does the Earth appears in the Universe. In the first part you see leaves of the Peepal Tree, and in the next part you see a Rabbit."

Based on this shloka, Saint Ramanujacharya sketched out the map, but the world laughed
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WORLD OF SANATAN DHARMA
WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
@world_sanatan
LESSER KNOWN DETAILS ABOUT THE BATTLE OF PRATAPGAD - THIS YOU ALL SHOULD READ

In the 1659 Adilshah sent Afzalkhan with the army of 75000 soldiers to destroy Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj with his empire. He was the main soldier, warrior and minister in Adilshahi Sultanate.


He was the Subhedar of Wai province.

He was very powerful physically. His height was 7.3 ft. due to same he was very popular as a strong man from Adilshahi Sultanate.

Whole India was not daring to fight with Adilshahi due to Afzal Khan.

Badi Begum Sahiba sent him to kill Chhatrapati Shivaji on any cost.

Voluntary he decided to destroy Chhatrapati Shivaji’s empire with him. He started his operation against Chhatrapati Shivaji from "wai". He destroyed many temples like as Tulja Bhavani Temple.

He destroyed so many villages, killed villagers to torture Chhatrapati Shivaji.

DETAILED VIEW- Running commentary

1. Chhatrapati Shivaji chose Pantaji as a lawyer to communicate with Afzal Khan. Pantaji was very sharp minded, who did his job very nicely.

2. He presented Chhatrapati Shivaji is fearing Afzal Khan and he wanted to invite him in his kingdom near Pratapgad.

3. Pantaji succeed in the communication with Afzal Khan and he brought him as per the planning of Chhatrapati Shivaji.
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI LALITHAMBIGAI, THIRUMEYACHUR (TN)
#bharatmandir #navratri2021

Kshetram where Shiva is worshipped as Meghanatha and his consort is Lalithambigai seen in Abhay mudra.
Once, a demon Pandasura was harassing the Devas who went to Devi Parashakti for protection. 
@GunduHuDuGa


Devi rose from a Yaga Gunda, mounted on the Sri Chakra Rath with the name Lalithambika, waged a war against Pandasura and destroyed him.  When her fury did not subside, Shiva asked her to go to Earth, assume the name Manonmani, perform penance and shed her fury.


Shiva blessed Devi to be Shanta nayagi. There is a sculpture here depicting Shiva pacifying Devi. If you observe closely, you can see that from your left hand side there will be a smile on Her face and if you see from your right hand side you can see anger in Her face.


Hayagriva taught the greatness of Lalitha Sahasranama to Rishi Agasthya. Pleased with his devotion, Ma Lalithambikai appeared before Agastya. He is believed to have then sung Lalita Navaratnamala in praise of Devi. He has also composed a hymn named Rahasyanamasahasram.
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