1/ Quick thread. At the end of the third week of Brexit being "done", I can only say that I'm exhausted.

Immediate pressures on companies who have been trading goods have been on grappling with all of the new customs and regulatory requirements.

2/ It's clear that agrifood businesses have been the hardest hit due to the SPS checks and other requirements.

But for others, the shift from a distributor model to importer/exporter has been a challenge. This hasn't been helped by certain IT system not working as planned.
3/ So are these "teething problems"? Companies are grappling with the new systems & formalities.

Some are, but many others aren't.

Worth noting that freight volumes are still below average. But stockpiles are running low, coming weeks are going to be interesting.
4/ Two issues that are immediately facing many businesses that won't be addressed by sorting this teething period.

First, many businesses are facing the largest shift in their cost base in a generation.
5/ This comes from the cost of dealing with the customs procedures, upgrading IT systems to manage the new requirements, setting up European operating centres to comply with regulatory requirements, new immigration costs, the list goes on.
6/ The question they're going to be asking themselves - are their operations still profitable?

This is something that is going to be something that will continue to play and play in the weeks and months ahead.

For many, the answer will be no. So what do they do as a result?
7/ Some will look at their pricing models and figure out how much of those costs they can either put onto their suppliers, absorb themselves or push onto their customers. None are particularly attractive options.

The other (worse) possibility is to stop trading.
8/ If you're interested in how companies can formulate strategies and manage these pressures - my talented colleague Euan wrote about it in December (pre-deal but majority of points still apply).

9/ The second issue is whether companies can continue to operate in the same way that they did previously - this has quickly become apparent in sourcing and meeting Rules of Origin.

Supply chains are going to shift as a result and is deeply complex.

But that's just one example
10/ So is this all the disruption that we're going to see?

Absolutely not.

One such example: due to the pandemic, business travel isn't happening. All the changes that are coming down the line in the activities which individuals can carry out while in the EU has changed.
11/ Also what we have in the trading relationship today is not the end-state of trade between the UK and EU. In some ways its going to get worse, as grace-periods and transitions end.

On the other hand, there are areas where the UK and EU are meant to deepen cooperation.
12/ What that means is businesses are going to need to stay on top of all of these changes and disruptions in the coming months and years.

This will take time, resources and attention. TL;DR - Brexit wasn't done on 1 January.

Now, off for a large glass of wine.

More from Brexit

1. #Belfast #IrishSeaBorder There is no doubt that Brexit & the accompanying Irish Sea Border has destabilised the Union. Whilst the constitutional status of Northern Ireland has not changed, the fact of N.I remaining in the single market of the EU confirms it is”a place apart”.

2. Belfast Steve Aitkin/UUP, Mervyn Gibson/OrangeOrder,Jim Allister/TUV, Jamie Bryson/Unionist Blogger, etc etc, all see the Irish Sea Border & different economic arrangements for NI apart from Britain as a “betrayal”. It comes in a long line of Tory”betrayals”.

3. #Belfast They are correct. The Irish Sea Border & EU single market moves N.Ireland closer to the Republic of Ireland in terms of economic
https://t.co/tdKZhjKhWu,it doesn’t change the constitutional status of NI but it is a huge psychological blow to a Unionism.

4. #Belfast The DUP utterly failed to “strengthen the Union”. Their attempt to hold the minority Tory Theresa May govt to ransom backfired spectacularly when Boris Johnson won a significant majority. Their arrogance led them to be isolated & resented in Westminster.

5. #Belfast How does Unionism now react to this?Retreat to the”Bunker”?Repeat the ineffective “Flag”street activism of the past? The Union can now only be saved imo by reaching out to the 5-10% swing vote that will decide a future Border Poll on Irish unification,& it is coming.

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👉 @TransistorFM reaching $22k MRR in one year:

I was one of their first customers and the progress @mijustin and @jonbuda have made working mostly part-time has been crazy.

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The dude seriously SHIPS and even took investment from @earnestcapital

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