BC BREXIT
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

1/ Quick thread. At the end of the third week of Brexit being "done", I can only say that I'm exhausted.

Immediate pressures on companies who have been trading goods have been on grappling with all of the new customs and regulatory requirements.

 2/ It's clear that agrifood businesses have been the hardest hit due to the SPS checks and other requirements.

But for others, the shift from a distributor model to importer/exporter has been a challenge. This hasn't been helped by certain IT system not working as planned.
3/ So are these "teething problems"? Companies are grappling with the new systems & formalities.

Some are, but many others aren't.

Worth noting that freight volumes are still below average. But stockpiles are running low, coming weeks are going to be interesting.
4/ Two issues that are immediately facing many businesses that won't be addressed by sorting this teething period.

First, many businesses are facing the largest shift in their cost base in a generation.
5/ This comes from the cost of dealing with the customs procedures, upgrading IT systems to manage the new requirements, setting up European operating centres to comply with regulatory requirements, new immigration costs, the list goes on.
6/ The question they're going to be asking themselves - are their operations still profitable?

This is something that is going to be something that will continue to play and play in the weeks and months ahead.

For many, the answer will be no. So what do they do as a result?
7/ Some will look at their pricing models and figure out how much of those costs they can either put onto their suppliers, absorb themselves or push onto their customers. None are particularly attractive options.

The other (worse) possibility is to stop trading.
8/ If you're interested in how companies can formulate strategies and manage these pressures - my talented colleague Euan wrote about it in December (pre-deal but majority of points still apply).

https://t.co/IMDCu9g2mK
9/ The second issue is whether companies can continue to operate in the same way that they did previously - this has quickly become apparent in sourcing and meeting Rules of Origin.

Supply chains are going to shift as a result and is deeply complex.

But that's just one example
10/ So is this all the disruption that we're going to see?

Absolutely not.

One such example: due to the pandemic, business travel isn't happening. All the changes that are coming down the line in the activities which individuals can carry out while in the EU has changed.
11/ Also what we have in the trading relationship today is not the end-state of trade between the UK and EU. In some ways its going to get worse, as grace-periods and transitions end.

On the other hand, there are areas where the UK and EU are meant to deepen cooperation.
12/ What that means is businesses are going to need to stay on top of all of these changes and disruptions in the coming months and years.

This will take time, resources and attention. TL;DR - Brexit wasn't done on 1 January.

Now, off for a large glass of wine.

More from Brexit

john milbank
john milbank
@johnmilbank3
This very short article by Jeremy Cliffe is the best thing I have ever read on Brexit and the EU. It pivots on the contrast between Delors’ and Thatcher’s authentically provincial Christian visions and suggests the battle in Britain between the two is not over.


Thatcher: Protestant believer in the totally free market and absolutely sovereign centralised nation state. Delors: Catholic believer in third way personalism, corporatism and federalism. Individualism versus relational love. Heterodoxy versus Orthodoxy.

The article useful gives the lie to the idea that the Catholic vision of the EU has altogether vanished even though it is weakened. Delors wanted a social dimension to the free market and single currency and yet lexiteers laughably insist the EU is more neoliberal than the U.K.!

Subsidiary federalism is a doctrine of democracy and human fraternity. State sovereignty is a doctrine of naked power. It is a face of Antichrist. Leviathan.

Those combined that democracy can only be inside a single state fail to power just how much of private law and evermore so is necessarily international. Thus if political institutions don’t extend over borders there can be no democracy.
BREXIT
Phil Syrpis
Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
One of the root causes of the Govt's Brexit difficulties is that it has overpromised.

We can, it is said, reclaim our sovereignty, with the freedom to make our own rules, and, at the same time, retain many of the advantages of EU membership. 1/14

The reality is that we cannot.

Unless we agree to certain standards and rules (and there is scope to argue about which rules), there will be borders, and checks, and tariffs. 2/

There will always be a relationship between rights (eg tariff free access to EU/UK markets) and responsibilities (eg abiding by level-playing field commitments). 3/

A 'good' outcome for the UK, in the Govt's view, would involve access gains (eg fewer border checks) without corresponding obligations (or with weak, or difficult-to-enforce obligations). 4/

The chances of this sort of 'good' outcome are low. The EU looks likely, in the face of the threats in the Internal Market Bill and now the Finance Bill, to insist on rigorous governance provisions. [Also, such provisions are the foundation of the single market.] 5/
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Nick Gutteridge
Nick Gutteridge
@nickgutteridge
1/ What are the ‘new’ demands the UK says the EU has made in the Brexit talks and are they actually new? There are 3 specific areas of contention that have emerged, one each on state aid rules, the Level Playing Field/Governance, and fish. None of them should be a total surprise.

2/ First, on state aid. The UK says the EU wants the Commission and European Investment Bank to be given carve-outs from the subsidy control provisions in the deal. It says this would create an unfair imbalance, because there would be no similar exemption for British authorities.

3/ This is particularly relevant in light of the bloc's €750bn Coronavirus recovery fund. It has already been delayed by an internal political row, and the EU is keen to ensure that isn't exacerbated by legal disputes with the UK next year. Brussels denies this is anything new.

4/ The Commission is an ex ante regulator, meaning it is called in to pre-authorise state aid spending by EU countries. The EU wants the UK to set up its own independent regulator to approve subsidies in the same way. If it does so, many of the state aid problems will fall away.

5/ LPF/Governance. This is about the 'ratchet clause' which the EU has relabelled as 'equivalence' of standards. It addresses what happens if one side raises its standards on say environmental or labour rules in the future and the other doesn't, creating a competitive imbalance.
BREXIT
Steve Brain MCCT \U0001f980\U0001f3e5 \U0001f499
Steve Brain MCCT 🦀🏥 💙...
@StephenBrain
Just read @MarinaHyde's recent piece. The list of fuck ups is endless, I can't honestly begin to say how sad my own country and government have made me. From the covid deaths, bungled exams and lack of ppe (remember that?) To brexit and fishing rights. My colleague voted for ...

...brexit 'for the fisherman', I would how they feel about it now? An ex-colleague of mine, life long Labour voter, said she wouldn't vote for Corbyn "because he is scruffy" and said, of the early Corona stages, "at least Corby's not in power". I wonder if she still thinks that?.

I bet he wouldn't have spaffed £22Bn up the wall of a failed test and trace system. It has become more and more clear that this regime is only interested in turning a profit. From the failed track and trace system through free school meals to the contracts for cunts, where Tories

give their mates contracts even though they have literally no experience of procuring the goods required, like Hancock's pal getting the test tube contract, which, by the way, were useless, splitting at the bottom when you tried to seal them so that they spilled their contents.

They then have their mouthpieces like Julia H-B and Toby Young. Young's father must be spinning so fast in his grave he could become part of Elon Musk's Boring Company. They spit contempt at desperate researchers and doctors who are trying to save lives. So now we have a higher..
BREXIT
Steve Peers
Steve Peers
@StevePeers
As the transition period ends, the #BrexitDeal applies from tomorrow. But there's also a parallel significant legal change - most of the rest of the withdrawal agreement starts to apply. A thread on the legal issues in the rest of that agreement.


The citizens' rights provisions of the withdrawal agreement (on EU citizens who moved to the UK, and UK citizens who moved to the EU, before the end of the transition period) start to apply.

Annotation and detailed analysis of those provisions here:

After today, UK citizens newly moving to the EU, or EU citizens newly moving to the UK, are in principle governed by national law (partly harmonised by the EU, on the EU side).

However, the #BrexitDeal contains some provisions on visas for service providers.

The #BrexitDeal also refers to the matching unilateral decisions of the EU and UK to waive a visa requirement for short tourist visits. Analysis of the EU law on that issue here:

UK citizens resident in the EU on the basis of the withdrawal agreement (or who move to EU in future) should be covered by the EU law on long-term resident non-EU citizens, which provides for a limited form of mobility between Member States. Analysis here:
BREXIT

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@ChenHuailun here. I'm adding a supplementary thread before today's scheduled one to expand on the origins and early history of the Church of the East (aka the Nestorian Church) ~ahc #jingjiao 1/


The Church of the East traces its origins to the christological position of the School of Antioch, which held that the human and divine and human essences (ουσία) of Christ were united in a single prosopon (πρόσωπον). ~ahc #jingjiao 2/


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One implication of the Antiochene rejection of the hypostatic union is that Mary could not accurately be called the Theotokos, or God-bearer. Instead, she is the Christotokos, the Christ-bearer. ~ahc #jingjiao 4/


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Charlie Hebdo doesn’t come up as a cautionary tale now but rather 'why cant we be like that'?
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Arif Hasan\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Arif Hasan🇮🇳...
@arifhasan18
5 star RSI Strategy by @VishalMalkan

Unconventional approach of 60-40 RSI and range shift concept.

According to him,
whenever the market is bearish,
it won’t be able to cross 60,
and whenever in a bullish trend,
it won’t be able to cross 40.

Like & Retweet for Maximum Reach.

So, instead of the 70-30 Relative Strength Index,
we will use the 60-40 range for the RSI indicator for this strategy.

When the
Monthly and Weekly RSI>60,
& when the RSI takes support at 40 in the daily chart,
it may bounce back and most probably it will not go below 40.

If a bullish candle is formed at the 40 RSI level,
the prices may bounce back, and one can enter the stock.

The stoploss can be placed at the low of that bullish candlestick,
and the target can be the 60 RSI level.

When the
Monthly and Weekly RSI<40,
& when the RSI takes resistance at 60 in the daily chart,
it may bounce back and most probably it will not go above 60

If a bearish candle is formed at the 60 RSI level,
the prices may bounce back from there, & 1 can enter the stock 4 shorting

The stoploss can be placed at the high of that bearish candlestick, and the target can be the 40 RSI levels.

#banknifty

This range shift concept can be applied in any timeframe,
whether intraday, daily,weekly, etc.
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