A Christmas Carol. My Brexit “take” on a popular seasonal tale. Happy Christmas everyone @mrjamesob @campbellclaret @chrisgreybrexit @rafaelbehr

It was Christmas Eve in Downing Street. PM Ebenezer Johnson was sitting alone in his office, colouring in a picture of sunny uplands. He was looking forward to a jolly Christmas and a glorious future for his country.
Suddenly there was a knock at the door and a wraith materialised in the semi-darkness. “I am”, he announced, “the Ghost of Christmas Past”. “What ho”, replied the PM, “what can I do for you? “
The ghost explained that he had been living in the attic of Number 10 since Winston Churchill’s day. Ever since It has been his practice to appear every Christmas Eve to update the PM on the country’s progress.
Over many decades, the ghost had been able to report on the great influence the UK had come to wield, in Europe and beyond, by working closely with its European neighbours; and on how the UK had used its sovereignty effectively to advance its interests.
Then, in a twinkling, the ghost disappeared as mysteriously as he had arrived.
The PM was about to say “Hang on” when a second phantom appeared, proclaiming “I am the Ghost of Christmas Present”. In a trice, the ghost and the PM were on a whistle-stop aerial tour of Europe, peering down at the 27 EU Member States, proud and comfortable in their sovereignty.
The ghost pointed out Brussels where vital decisions, crucial to the UK, continue to be taken. “But, but....”, said the PM. “Never mind”, interrupted the ghost, “our journey ahead is a long one. We must visit every country in the world that thinks Brexit is a good idea.”
“Jolly good”, said the PM. He cheered up enormously and began to hum Waltzing Matilda. “Sorry, just having a laugh”, said his ghostly friend, “forgive my sense of humour. Bye for now”.
In the blink of an eye, the PM found himself back flying over Blighty, accompanied by a third spectre who announced himself as the Ghost of Christmases Yet to Come. The new ghost pointed out, far below, some of the landmarks that would be visible at future Christmases.
“Behold”, he said, “the world-beating lorry parks, the queues of traffic slowing to a trickle approaching the coast, the shut-down factories, so proud to have traded patriotically (albeit briefly) on vastly disimproved terms. See up north the myriad Scottish and European flags.”
“Gadzooks”, said the PM, “what happened to prospering mightily?” The ghost smiled in a kindly way. The PM asked him about an abandoned fairground he could just make out in the darkness below. “That”, the ghost replied, “is all that remains of the great Brexit Festival of 2021”.
Suddenly, the PM found himself back alone at Number 10. A Dickens story sprang to his mind, something about a man called Scrooge who had been given a final opportunity to change his ways. The PM recalled vaguely that in 2016 he himself had faced a vital decision for his country.
Now what was it? The details had slipped his mind. He could remember flipping a coin. “Perhaps”, he thought, “the ghosts were right. Maybe I could just flip another coin? Future Christmases might not have to be so gloomy after all”. But then he said “Bah Humbug”, and went to bed.

More from Brexit

1/ A challenge in parsing Brexit news is that businesses are facing overlapping types of challenges that can be difficult to separate.

The key questions are:
1⃣ Given the model of Brexit chosen, could this have been prevented, and by whom?
2⃣ Can it get better?


2/ To put those another way:

"If you knew everything you needed to know and did everything right, is your existing business and delivery model still viable and competitive?"

The answer to that question determines if for you the problem is Brexit, or how Brexit was delivered.

3/ Some of the challenges at borders could have been prevented while still having the exact same model of Brexit (No Single Market, No Customs Union, but an FTA).

That they're appearing is an implementation failure and you can fully support Brexit but still be pissed about them.

4/ Examples include:

1) Government guidance and IT systems being ready earlier and/or easier to navigate;

2) More support for businesses, and more affordable bespoke help;

3) More time to prepare and better government communication about what preparation actually requires.

5/ This thread you've all seen from Daniel Lambert the wine merchant (primarily) deals with problems in this category.

There's no policy reason he can't export his product, but the procedures are a nightmare to navigate and he's badly under-supported.

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Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.

Characteristics of a personal moat below:


2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.

As Andrew Chen noted:


3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized

Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than


4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.

After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.

5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.

In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.
1. Project 1742 (EcoHealth/DTRA)
Risks of bat-borne zoonotic diseases in Western Asia

Duration: 24/10/2018-23 /10/2019

Funding: $71,500
@dgaytandzhieva
https://t.co/680CdD8uug


2. Bat Virus Database
Access to the database is limited only to those scientists participating in our ‘Bats and Coronaviruses’ project
Our intention is to eventually open up this database to the larger scientific community
https://t.co/mPn7b9HM48


3. EcoHealth Alliance & DTRA Asking for Trouble
One Health research project focused on characterizing bat diversity, bat coronavirus diversity and the risk of bat-borne zoonotic disease emergence in the region.
https://t.co/u6aUeWBGEN


4. Phelps, Olival, Epstein, Karesh - EcoHealth/DTRA


5, Methods and Expected Outcomes
(Unexpected Outcome = New Coronavirus Pandemic)