#Bitcoin #BTC - Break of lower channel support at around 16500-17000 shall take it to 1750-1800

Massive price erosion in cryptos a very likely outcome. This shall spill over to equities as well but not to same extent.

#NiftyFMCG #CNXFMCG

CMP 36264 / ATH 42021

Index should correct upto 18K-21K range and then resume the rise towards 55K. Mark the level on index and buy FMCG stocks there for another 2x-5x gains in stocks.

#Index #Nifty #Investing

Somebody asked for #Ultratech #Cement - Sharing my view. One drop to 3900 and below is necessary before any further rise.

1/ The Price of Bitcoin

- Why price is entirely what matters
- How the price helps build Bitcoin

A thread👇

2/ Marketing viral loop

“A viral loop is a mechanism that drives continuous referrals for continuous growth.

It’s how you drive your existing customers to refer others to your brand, and in turn, get those new customers to tell even more people about you." - @ReferralRock

3/ Most of us heard about Bitcoin in 2013, 2017, when friends and family were talking about the rapid price increase. It’s through this viral loop that Bitcoin grows in adoption.

4/ The price is that signal to folks that Bitcoin is interesting, solves a problem, and that others are recognizing it as a new money. If Bitcoin’s price had stayed at $100 none of us would be here. While there is volatility, we keep seeing higher lows = long term trend upwards.

5/ Satoshi built a viral loop into Bitcoin.

“As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases. It has the potential for a positive feedback loop; as users increase, the value goes up, which could attract more users to take advantage of the increasing value.” - Satoshi

#BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with $7.81 trillion AUM, recently granted two of its funds the ability to invest in #Bitcoin futures.

Here's why I think BlackRock investing in Bitcoin futures is bearish, and could result in a major downturn in the coming months.

1) According to the new BlackRock SEC filings, it mentions the use of Bitcoin derivatives and other assets as part of its investment scheme. The futures will be cash-settled, and likely on the CME BTC exchange.

2) If BlackRock was bullish on Bitcoin, they would've directly bought it, but instead they are choosing to buy Future contracts. Why?

With Futures, they can either short or long. Considering BlackRock's historically bearish stance on BTC, It's quite clear they will be shorting.

3) Here's a short clip of BlackRock CEO Larry Fink bashing #Bitcoin, saying theres zero institutional demand, and calling it an ‘index of money laundering':

4) By investing in the Bitcoin futures market, it essentially allows them to gamble on its future price.

With their large cash size, BlackRock will be the largest player in this market. They can and will tank Bitcoin's price to avoid paying out. Banks have done it before...

1/ Thread explains the rationale for $GBTC over #bitcoin. (Speaking from experience, but not necessarily an endorsement of GBTC):

2/ $GBTC fills a need and is designed to permit exposure to #bitcoin for professional, registered investment advisors in the US. Money managers have unique circumstances compared to individual investors.

3/ #Imagine you are an investment mgr with 250 client accounts (an average-sized separate account manager would have 400). Owning #bitcoin means setting up another 250 accounts - major work with not a lot of reward. If you want to rebalance (stocks/bonds/bitcoin)...

4/ you have 250 transfers to make. Doubles admin workload, makes operational life very complicated. Lots of work for a 5-10% allocation (or less!) to $BTC.

5/ Client reporting is a nightmare. 2 sets of custodian statements not easily combined... A typical client already has 3 accounts, now it is 6 accounts & 6 statements, and there are few software feeds to consolidate data from #crypto exchanges into traditional portfolio reports.

Tulips, the #Bitcoin of the 17th century

How a pandemic, FOMO, and speculation made a flower worth the same as a mansion

/THREAD/

1/ During the beginning of the 1630s in the Netherlands, tulips were difficult to cultivate and preserve.

This made them a luxury good reserved for the rich and affluent of the upper class living in mansions with big gardens.

2/ The tulip market was not organized nor regulated, as other trades, which made it easy for professional growers to enter it.
Due to the international trade expansion, the growers starting cultivating rare varieties, to achieve higher prices.

3/ The biggest change occurred when florists used tulip bulbs as speculative assets.

The market expansion led to forward bulb-purchase contracts, thus enabling trading during the entire year, and not just during the summer months when tulips bloom.

4/ Easy loans and credit for forward contract purchases led many to enter the market since not much capital was required.

People from the lower economic class (maids, servants, craftsmen) could not resist the temptation for some quick profits and entered the speculative market.

For those who were trading in 2017 or earlier bull markets this may be obvious, but these kinds of corrections are typically driven by overleveraged longs, not whales dumping on you. That hasn’t started yet. Let me break down why it happens and why it is worse on the weekends.

I should probably have data to back this up, but I haven’t kept up to date with the latest trading data so much of this is based on intuition and experience trading through 2016-2018. If you have data that invalidates this please provide it, happy to be wrong here!

Firstly in an early bull market you have some OG holders taking profit around previous ATH, they have “learned their lesson” and are trying to not get rekt like last time. Once they finish taking some profits or hedging they are riding this up to multiples of previous ATH.

For example I sold around 5-10% of my ETH into stables between $500-$1200, over $1,200 you would need to claw it out of my cold dead hands before we hit $3k. If we don’t get there this cycle (we will) then I will just keep holding. I know a lot of people who did the same.

The problem with this is that the new money coming in and pushing the price up is highly leveraged, and the people with the most conviction are mainly holding and so while they might buy some dips they probably don’t have the dry powder to soak up huge liquidated positions.