1/Today's Substack post is about Biden's chances of becoming a truly transformational president -- someone who will move U.S. economic policy onto a leftward track, as Reagan once moved it onto a rightward

2/Political scientist Stephen Skowronek has a theory that says we're due for a "reconstructive" President who will define a new paradigm for the next few decades.

https://t.co/p1usloRmsD
3/Like most people, I thought Biden would be an incrementalist centrist who would get little done other than restoring competence and morality to the executive branch (and that alone would have been plenty of reason to vote for him!).
4/When I read Skowronek's theory, I read it as a prediction of a Bernie or Warren presidency.

I did not imagine that Biden could be a transformational president.

BUT, it's looking like he just might be one!
5/Check out @mehdirhasan's rundown of Biden's rapid blitz.

https://t.co/o6nqPL97S8
6/Or check out @drvolts' rundown of Biden's climate actions!

https://t.co/FrFhE1RLSp
7/Biden has done more executive actions in the first 3 weeks of his presidency than Obama and Trump combined at the equivalent mark. Here's a list.

https://t.co/UkqOTmu49E
8/His legislative agenda is breathtakingly bold. It's -- dare I say it? -- Rooseveltian.
9/Now, Biden might be stymied on the legislative front. Mitch McConnell might filibuster much of his agenda to death (though I'm remaining cautiously optimistic this will not happen).
10/But remember, this sort of happened to Ronald Reagan too!
11/Reagan's true transformational influence came from:

1. Executive actions and appointments that weakened unions and regulation, etc.

2. An enduring ideological shift, which led eventually to Clinton's welfare reform and deregulations.
12/In the same way, Biden might usher in a new age where economic progressivism -- in the form of government sending people cash -- is the norm, and leaders of BOTH parties compete to see who can do it better.

Maybe this is the first glimmer:

https://t.co/eOQEeeroo4
13/Maybe individual leaders' temperaments and preconceptions are less important than the necessities of the times in which they lead.

Maybe it's not Biden. Maybe it's COVID making America finally realize that Reaganism is inadequate to the challenges we face.
14/In other words, maybe Skowronek is right -- maybe it's simply TIME for a transformational President. Maybe Biden just happens to be the person that the Hand of Destiny tapped on the shoulder.

(end)

https://t.co/k5xqLQ88Xq
And remember, if you like this kind of content, sign up for my free email list and get it delivered direction to your inbox! :-)

https://t.co/FGppA1M8W6

More from Noah Smith 🐇

To be honest, I think this is just the effect of Twitter.

If you're on Twitter all the time - as every political commentator now is - it's easy to think that whiny, big-talking Twitter slacktivists are "the Dems".

But what's happening out there on the ground?


This is another reason I think Twitter is so bad for society.

It convinces intellectuals and commentators that practically everyone who's on their side is an extremist.

Which makes them tolerate extremism out of a (false) feeling of necessity.

If you stay on Twitter too much (which we all do now), you start to think that the typical left-of-center person is some British wanker who quote-tweets "Imagine thinking this" to anyone who doesn't like the idea of "ending capitalism".

But he is not typical.

A majority of Americans are not on Twitter.

But *every* journalist, commentator, and intellectual *has* to be on Twitter.

So every journalist, commentator, and intellectual comes face to face with big-talking slacktivist faux-extremists day in and day out.

It's a problem!!

Online bubbles full of shouty faux-extremists are, in general, fine.

The difference is that every journalist, commentator, and intellectual is essentially forced to exist in THIS bubble, because their jobs require it.

Twitter is a dystopian technology.

(end)
Today's @bopinion post is about how poor countries started catching up to rich ones.

It looks like decolonization just took a few decades to start

Basic econ theory says poor countries should grow faster than rich ones.

But for much of the Industrial Revolution, the opposite happened.
https://t.co/JjjVtWzz5c

Why? Probably because the first countries to discover industrial technologies used them to conquer the others!

But then colonial empires went away. And yet still, for the next 30 years or so, poor countries fell further behind rich ones.
https://t.co/hilDvv0IQV

Why??

Possible reasons:
1. Bad institutions (dictators, communism, autarkic trade regimes)
2. Civil wars
3. Lack of education

But then, starting in the 80s (for China) and the 90s (for India and Indonesia), some of the biggest poor countries got their acts together and started to catch up!


Global inequality began to fall.

More from Biden

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