Inflation was the concern at the time.
"Not in the short-term" but over the long-run was the phrase
9 months later & inflation is lower than when the pandemic started because velocity collapsed
2)
M1 money supply is rising at nearly 70% year over year
What is going on and does this mean inflation is coming?
Shorter Answer: No
Longer Answer: Not from the monetary channel
1)
Inflation was the concern at the time.
"Not in the short-term" but over the long-run was the phrase
9 months later & inflation is lower than when the pandemic started because velocity collapsed
2)
https://t.co/IOjiOnURxi
3)
Goods inflation (manufacturing upturn)
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) December 7, 2020
vs.
Services disinflation (social distance rules / changing consumer behavior). pic.twitter.com/mXEoI7OvEL
Right now, only condition #1 is satisfied which is why inflation is declining with record money growth.
4)
5)
Charted below we can see demand deposits are growing over 100% year over year.
6)
7)
To the extent the money is used to pay down debt, or used for basic needs like clothing, food & shelter, then M1 velocity will take another leg lower, offsetting inflation
8)
Using government debt to drive resources (away from investment) and towards consumption will not result in the inflationary increase many expect.
9)
In high-debt societies, the inflation rate is highly correlated to real GDP growth.
10)
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Mr. Patrick, one of the chief scientists at the Army Biological Warfare Laboratories at Fort Detrick in Frederick, Md., held five classified US patents for the process of weaponizing anthrax.
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Under Mr. Patrick’s direction, scientists at Fort Detrick developed a tularemia agent that, if disseminated by airplane, could cause casualties & sickness over 1000s mi². In a 10,000 mi² range, it had 90% casualty rate & 50% fatality rate
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5/x Back in Time
In 1949 the Army created a small team of chemists at "Camp Detrick" called Special Operations Division. Its assignment was to find military uses for toxic bacteria. The coercive use of toxins was a new field, which fascinated Allen Dulles, later head of the CIA
Mr. Patrick, one of the chief scientists at the Army Biological Warfare Laboratories at Fort Detrick in Frederick, Md., held five classified US patents for the process of weaponizing anthrax.
2/x
Under Mr. Patrick’s direction, scientists at Fort Detrick developed a tularemia agent that, if disseminated by airplane, could cause casualties & sickness over 1000s mi². In a 10,000 mi² range, it had 90% casualty rate & 50% fatality rate
3/x His team explored Q fever, plague, & Venezuelan equine encephalitis, testing more than 20 anthrax strains to discern most lethal variety. Fort Detrick scientists used aerosol spray systems inside fountain pens, walking sticks, light bulbs, & even in 1953 Mercury exhaust pipes
4/x After retiring in 1986, Mr. Patrick remained one of the world’s foremost specialists on biological warfare & was a consultant to the CIA, FBI, & US military. He debriefed Soviet defector Ken Alibek, the deputy chief of the Soviet biowarfare program
https://t.co/sHqSaTSqtB
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In 1949 the Army created a small team of chemists at "Camp Detrick" called Special Operations Division. Its assignment was to find military uses for toxic bacteria. The coercive use of toxins was a new field, which fascinated Allen Dulles, later head of the CIA
