Logical fallacies are errors in reasoning that undermine the quality of an argument.
THREAD: 20 common logical fallacies to learn, identify, and avoid:
Latin for "to the person" - an attack of the person rather than the argument.
Instead of addressing the argument and its points and merits, the offender attempts to refute the opposition on the basis of personal characteristics.
All-too-common in politics.
A Texan fires a gun at a barn wall and then paints a target around the closest cluster of bullet holes to create the appearance of accuracy.
Selecting and highlighting evidence that supports the conclusion while ignoring evidence that may refute it.
An assumption of truth on the basis of the majority of people believing it to be true.
"Everyone believes X, so obviously X is true."
Typically offered without regard for the qualifications or ability of the people in question to validate the claim.
The offender ignores the actual argument and replaces it with a flimsy, distorted, easily-refuted argument (a “straw man”).
By replacing a strong argument with a weak one, the offender can create the illusion of an easy, swift victory.
The kippered herring was a smelly fish used to distract hunting dogs while training them to stay focused on a scent.
"Red herring" is now synonymous with distraction.
The offender distracts from the argument with a seemingly related (but actually unrelated) point.
Jumping to conclusions.
Material, wide-ranging conclusions are made on the basis of an immaterial, narrow body of evidence.
Insufficient evidence has been gathered to justify the claimed conclusions.
The over-reliance on the perspective of an "expert" to support the legitimacy of an argument.
The qualifications of the authority figure in the field of question must be considered.
Their support can be a feature - but not a pillar - of the argument.
The "appeal to purity" - the changing of the original argument to evade a counter-argument.
You claim a Scotsman never drinks scotch with soda. Charles says he is a Scotsman and drinks scotch with soda. You exclaim that Charles must not be a true Scotsman!
Sunk costs are the economic costs already invested in an activity that cannot be recovered.
The fallacy is found in thinking that you should continue on the basis of all that you've put in, with no regard for future costs or likelihood of ultimate success.
The conclusion does not follow logically from the premises.
Presented evidence provides little or no actual support for the argument.
“Charles ate fish for dinner and is well-spoken, so he must be a banker.”
Presenting only two choices or alternatives when there are many more that exist.
Ignores nuance and lends itself to extreme positions.
Typically reduces the potential for compromise, as the two options are painted as being extremely far apart.
Latin for “you too” - attempting to discredit an opponent’s argument by pointing out personal behavior as being inconsistent with their argument.
Targeting the hypocrisy of the opponent.
“Don’t question my integrity, look at all of the bad things you’ve done!”
An argument that begins with a benign starting point before using a series of successive steps to get to a more radical, extreme end point.
No single step appears ridiculous on the surface, but the connection of multiple steps into a series is highly-improbable.
A form of circular reasoning in which the argument is presented in such a way that the conclusion is included in the premise.
“Ghosts are real because I once experienced something that had to be a ghost.”
Easy to identify. The logic collapses on itself.
Asking a question with a presumption built into the question (pre-loaded!).
Typically intended to be inflammatory in nature.
The individual on the receiving end of the question is forced to respond despite the baseless, irrelevant nature of the presumption.
Argues that since Event B followed Event A, Event B must have been caused by Event A.
Just because B followed A, doesn’t necessarily mean that B was caused by A.
Correlation ≠ Causation.
Comes from the roots “equal” and “voice” - a single word or phrase can say two very different things.
Occurs when the offender uses a word or phrase in an intentionally misleading manner that sounds like it’s saying one thing but is actually saying something else.
You are unable to understand or believe something, therefore you argue that it cannot be true.
Complex topics often require significant upfront work to understand, so an inability to understand cannot be used to argue the illegitimacy of a claim.
The inability to provide evidence that a claim is false is used as justification that the claim is true.
The burden of proof lies with the person making the claim to provide supporting evidence.
The lack of refuting evidence is not supporting evidence.
Incorrectly assumes that a claim must be false if a fallacy was used to argue the claim.
Just because someone has poorly argued a claim, does not mean the claim itself is definitively false.
I will be turning this thread into a longer-form piece for my newsletter, where I will explore these in greater depth (including examples!).
Subscribe below so you don’t miss it: https://t.co/qMB8i60ney
New roles drop every week! https://t.co/33hwlEqYaW
You can find all of my threads (120+!) in the meta-thread below: https://t.co/Q2PggDyCJM
1/ An Allegory of Finance— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) July 18, 2020
I have been posting a lot of educational (and humorous!) threads on finance, money, and economics.
My mission is simple: to demystify these concepts and make them accessible to everyone.
All of the threads can be found below. Enjoy and please share!
More from Sahil Bloom
A thread on its meaning and how it can change your life...
Memento Mori is a Latin phrase that translates to "remember that you must die."
A favorite of Stoic philosophy, it is a reminder of the certainty and inescapability of death.
It is not intended to be morbid or dark; rather, to clarify, illuminate, and inspire.
Memento Mori - the idea of remembering your mortality - has been around for millennia.
The phrase itself is believed to have originated in the Roman Empire.
After military victories, the heroes were paraded through the streets on chariots.
They may have felt like Gods...
But the Romans would place one person in the chariot whose sole responsibility was to whisper in the hero's ear throughout the parade.
"Respice post te. Hominem te esse memento. Memento mori!"
Translation: "Look behind. Remember thou art mortal. Remember that you must die!"
Memento Mori served as a tool to invoke humility in moments of glory.
It can also be a tool for providing clarity.
The Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius famously wrote in his Meditations, "You could leave life right now. Let that determine what you do and say and think."
With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.
But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?
Here's Lindy Effect 101!
1/ First, a few definitions.
The Lindy Effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, like a technology or idea, is proportional to their age.
Put simply, the longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.
2/ The term "Lindy effect" is a reference to Lindy's, a New York deli frequented by comedians in the 1960s.
While author Albert Goldman used the term "Lindy's Law" in a 1964 article, it was mathematician Benoit Mandlebrot who moved the dialogue towards the current definition.
3/ In his book, entitled The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Mandlebrot commented that the more stage appearances a Lindy's comedian made, the more future appearances he could be predicted to make.
The longer he lasted, the longer he would continue to last.
4/ @nntaleb built upon Mandelbrot's work, formally coining the term "Lindy Effect" in his book, Antifragile.
He noted the Lindy Effect with books - the longer a book has been in print, the longer it is likely to survive.
With no natural upper bound, power laws come into play.
Fortunately, these skills can be learned.
THREAD: A simple, powerful mental model for thinking clearly and solving complex problems:
When solving problems, the human mind is wired to think in linear, logical, forward terms.
But as the problems get increasingly complex, this forward, logical process often fails.
Enter our simple, powerful mental model: inversion.
What is inversion?
Inversion is a mental model and thinking tool used by some of the world’s greatest thinkers and problem solvers.
Simply put, it says that when problems become challenging to solve forwards, they may be more readily solved backwards.
Inversion as a general thinking tool has been around for millennia.
Stoic philosophers had premeditatio malorum - “the pre-meditation of evils” - an exercise in which they would imagine the worst case scenario ahead of time.
It allowed them to make plans to avoid this outcome.
The formal mental model was popularized by German mathematician Carl Jacobi in the mid-1800s.
When faced with difficult problems (which happened frequently in his field of elliptic functions!), he had a strategy: “Man muss immer umkehren.”
Translation: “Invert, always invert.”
Here's a breakdown of what it is (and why you should care):
1/ Richard Cantillon was an Irish-French economist and philosopher born in the 1680s.
He achieved success as a banker—which he attributed to the formidable connections made through his family and employer.
At a young age, he had learned of the impact of proximity to power...
2/ Around 1730, Cantillon wrote a paper—Essay on the Nature of Commerce in General—which is considered a foundational work in the study of the political economy.
It was widely circulated in manuscript form, though it was not published until 1755, well after his death.
3/ In the paper, Cantillon posited that the early recipients of new money entering an economy will benefit more significantly than those it trickles down to.
In other words, the "flow path" of the new money matters!
4/ In 18th century terms, those closest to the King—the source of money/power—benefitted first when new money entered the economy.
Broadly, Cantillon observed that new money creates distributional effects based on where it enters the system.
The Cantillon Effect was born...
Over the last month, I asked several 90-year-olds what advice they would give to their 32-year-old selves.
Here's the life advice everyone needs to hear:
1. Now and then, break out the fancy china and drink the good wine for no reason at all.
2. Dance at weddings until your feet are sore.
3. Tell your partner you love them every night before falling asleep. Someday you’ll find the other side of the bed empty and wish you could.
4. Don’t fear sadness, as it tends to sit right next to love.
5. Treat your body like a house you have to live in for another 70 years.
6. Never raise your voice, except for at a ballgame.
7. Do one good deed every single day, but never tell anyone about it.
8. Time doesn't heal anything when it comes to relationships. Don't delay difficult conversations.
9. Find the things that make your eyes light up. Do more of those.
10. Always remind yourself that your track record for making it through your bad days is perfect.
11. If something has a minor issue, repair it. Minor issues become major issues over time. Applies equally to love, friendships, health, and home.
12. The most damning lie you can tell is the lie you tell to yourself.
13. No one has ever argued their way to happiness.
More from All
Unfortunately the "This work includes the identification of viral sequences in bat samples, and has resulted in the isolation of three bat SARS-related coronaviruses that are now used as reagents to test therapeutics and vaccines." were BEFORE the
chimeric infectious clone grants were there.https://t.co/DAArwFkz6v is in 2017, Rs4231.
https://t.co/UgXygDjYbW is in 2016, RsSHC014 and RsWIV16.
https://t.co/krO69CsJ94 is in 2013, RsWIV1. notice that this is before the beginning of the project
starting in 2016. Also remember that they told about only 3 isolates/live viruses. RsSHC014 is a live infectious clone that is just as alive as those other "Isolates".
P.D. somehow is able to use funds that he have yet recieved yet, and send results and sequences from late 2019 back in time into 2015,2013 and 2016!
https://t.co/4wC7k1Lh54 Ref 3: Why ALL your pangolin samples were PCR negative? to avoid deep sequencing and accidentally reveal Paguma Larvata and Oryctolagus Cuniculus?
IRCTC 100% Market share in Rail Network.
IEX >90% market share in power trading.
Zydus wellness >90% market share in sugar free product.
Eicher motors >85% market share in 250cc bikes category.
MCX >85% market share in commodity trading.
Coal India >80% market share in coal production in India.
ITC >75% market share in cigarettes.
Honda Siel >75% in portable power generators.
Hindustan Zinc >75% market share in primary zinc industry.
Asahi India Glass >70% market share in automotive glass.
NRB Bearings >70% market share in needle roller bearings.
Pidilite >65% market share in adhesives.
CAMS >65% market share in RTA within mutual fund industry.
Time Technoplast >65% market share in polymer based industrial packaging.
Concor >65% market share in domestic container cargo transport.
Exide >60% market share in lead batteries.
Naukri >60% market share in the Indian job market space.
Praj >60% market share in ethanol plant installing.
Indiamart Intermesh >55% market share in the online B2B Classified space.
Borosil Renewables >55% market share in Lab glass.
Vst Tillers >50% market share in
Delta corp >50% in online poker games.
Vinati Organics >50% market share in IBB.
Entry time : 9.30 - 10
Exit : Upto you
Sell weekly ATM CE & PE at almost equal price
For ex : Sell Nifty 17250 CE at 50 and Nifty 17250 PE at 48 so it will become short straddle
Buy monthly ATM or near ATM CE & PE at matching price (5-10 points diff should be fine) as hedge
For ex : Buy Nifty 17250 CE at 150 and Nifty 17300 PE at 155 so it will become long straddle.
Weekly Short straddle + Monthly Long straddle
• If you feel slightly bullish/bearish then no adjustment needed
• If Nifty moves 50 up or down and sustain then just simply roll up or down half of qnty and keep rest of the quantity. If market goes up or down further then roll up or down rest.
• If Nifty moves one side or about to breach BEP then add equal amount of lot. This can balance tested side. For ex: If I bought 17300 CE 4 lot as hedge then add 4 lot so you will have only one side risk . Note: Remember to keep SL at cost price (only for additional lot bought)
2.2 L for 4 lot
Adjustment requires additional capital upto 1L
Note : High risk high reward strategy, please don’t execute until you fully understand. Kindly do paper trading or backtest.
RR : 1:1
POP : 45-55%
Here’s what I’m doing, and what you can do to prepare:
1. Find quality mentors
Find people with experience in your industry. The more hands-on experience, the better.
Just because someone is older or has more business experience than you doesn’t mean they are an ideal mentor for you.
2. Be an information vacuum
Warren suggests 500 pages a day.
Don’t read analyst opinions.
Read the primary source data (financials)
3. Learn the business.
If you don’t know anything about the business, read more! Then talk to mentors! Read everything you can get your hands. Read competitor reports, read historical reports.
Pay for consultants.
Talk to the executives & customers of the company.
4. Avoid "The Passion Trap."
Early in my career, people told me
• ‘only invest in what you love’
• ‘without passion you won't succeed’
• 'don't touch what doesn't excite you'
You May Also Like
• I have curated some of the best tweets from the best traders we know of.
• Making one master thread and will keep posting all my threads under this.
• Go through this for super learning/value totally free of cost! 😃
1. 7 FREE OPTION TRADING COURSES FOR
A THREAD:— Aditya Todmal (@AdityaTodmal) November 28, 2020
7 FREE OPTION TRADING COURSES FOR BEGINNERS.
Been getting lot of dm's from people telling me they want to learn option trading and need some recommendations.
Here I'm listing the resources every beginner should go through to shorten their learning curve.
2. THE ABSOLUTE BEST 15 SCANNERS EXPERTS ARE USING
Got these scanners from the following accounts:
3. 12 TRADING SETUPS which experts are using.
These setups I found from the following 4 accounts:
4. Curated tweets on HOW TO SELL STRADDLES.
Everything covered in this thread.
2. How to initiate
3. When to exit straddles
5. Videos on
Curated tweets on How to Sell Straddles— Aditya Todmal (@AdityaTodmal) February 21, 2021
Everything covered in this thread.
2. How to initiate
3. When to exit straddles
5. Videos on Straddles
Share if you find this knowledgeable for the benefit of others.
Bhaktha Anjaneya temple at Nanganallur in Chennai is one among tallest Anjaneyar Vigraham. Here Anjaneyar blesses with relief to all illness. Vigraham is about 32 feet height made of single stone.
Anjaneyar here is 👇
Sri Vishwaroopa Aadhivyathihara Baktha Anjaneya Swamy.
Sthala Puranam says that, this is the place where Indra Deva hit Hanuman on the cheek by his Vajrastram. Sri Raghavendra Swami and Sri Kanchi Paramacharyar were behind in building this temple. Temple is constructed to
Realize power of Anjaneyar who is seen both in Ramayana and Mahabharatha.
Vadamalai is important offering to Anjaneyar here. It is believed that vigraham contain powers to heal any disease. Shri Ramanavami is celebrated here.
Jai Sri Ram
Most agent offer calls come with a discussion about editorial support and expectations on both sides. If an agent says they work editorially, both of you can talk about what you hope this will look like. This may include:
Rounds of overall revision to plot/character/structure/setting, or tightening to a genre guideline, based on an "edit letter."
Line edits/sidebar comments by your agent. I always stress these are suggestions to achieve a goal. How author arrives at that goal is up to to them, but
I should make it clear to you what the goal of the point is: heighten emotional moment, untangle complicated scene, drive a relationship, clarify stakes, etc. I may suggest HOW and you can use my suggestion or come up w/your own solution. As long as the goal is attained.
But I'll always be honest if the changes came up short, too. It's a conversation, a development, open-door for challenge.
I DO put foot down abt blatant "rookie mistakes." Or major arc problems,sensitivity issues. I don't do this to be obstinate;but you should stay flexible too.
We have already gone through the series on importance & characteristics of all the eighteen Purans. We also know that originally there were hundred crore shlokas but were divided by Vyas in each Kalp and was compiled as eighteen Purans
for the common people to understand it properly and now their total is about four lakhs.
In Brahm Puran, Brahma preached this to Marichi. So this Puran of ten thousand shlokas is called Brahm Puran.
In Padma Puran, the base of the story is the appearance of Brahma on a lotus(Padm) from Vishnu' s navel.This has fifty five thousand shlokas.
Vishnu Puran is primarily based in Varah kalp. This book is on Vishnu and this book has twenty three thousand shlokas.
Vaayu Puran is written in Shwet Kalp and has twenty four thousand shlokas. Here Vayudev preaches about Dharma.
In Bhagwat Puran, which is written with the base of Gayatri mantra describes Dharma extensively. It has 18000 shlokas. It also mentions the story of Vritrasur.
In Narad Puran, which has twenty five thousand shlokas, is a sermon on Dharma by Narad based in Brihad Kalp.
Markandeya Puran has nine thousand shlokas and here it is through the birds that Dharma is described.