2/n
Long-term thoughts about the #crypto market
Get ready to get into a VERY long thread, full of charts.
Popcorns ready? Let's start!
1/n
2/n
In my opinion, it still has a lot of room to rise in terms of price (not so much in terms of time)
3/n
As you can see, this indicator marks the cycle tops very well. However, these do not happen when it crosses the red average, but after a parabolic movement above it. At the moment it is not even above this MA.
4/n
No red dots yet visible. I'd say we're halfway. An analysis cannot be based on a single indicator, but it all adds up.
5/n
Another very good indicator to know where we are in the cycle. All cycle tops have occurred in the red zone, but as with the first indicator, they happen rather when it leaves the red zone.
6/n
Many of you will know this model, and it is really good. Assuming a constant or increasing demand in the long term, and an increasingly reduced supply, the price tends to rise.
7/n
Sounds good, right?
8/n
Another indicator that has a margin of going up, like the previous ones. Currently the top of the logarithmic curve is above 100k, so nothing indicates that the top will be now.
9/n
I really like this one. Similar to the Puell Multiple, cycle tops usually happens when it crosses the red zone. Not there yet!
10/n
This is an awesome indicator. It marks both bottoms and tops perfectly. As you can see, it can also go higher.
11/n
When Bitcoin reserves in exchanges wallets drop, the price tends to increase. This can mean that strong hands are accumulating, which is confirmed in the following tweet (outflows)
12/n
Whenever there have been big outflows on this exchange, the price has had big pumps in the following days.
These outflows are usually followed by news such as MicroStrategy, Grayscale or Tesla buying $BTC (OTC deals) The amounts match.
13/n
Each top is usually marked by a divergence of this indicator with the price. There is no divergence yet.
14/n
It shows that we are in a very strong trend. Open interest going up and price going up, and during the shakeouts OI goes down. This is a very healthy trend, and I don't see any signs of weakness yet.
15/n
I read many people saying that funding is high, not only in Bitcoin, but also in altcoins. This is relative.
16/n
17/n
First Covid Stimulus had a big impact on the market. In fact, it marked the beginning of this bull cycle. After that, two new Stimulus have taken place.
18/n
19/n
Bitcoin has broken out of an accumulation range of over 1000 days. This usually results in long extensions.
Currently, the increase over the previous ATH is only 200%.
20/n
https://t.co/odD5h45wsL
21/n
$BTC - Monthly RSI
— il Capo Of $NOIA (@CryptoCapo_) December 29, 2020
Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%.
Each cycle is shorter. pic.twitter.com/r28DHG2SeU
Let's summarize why I think many altcoins will continue to outperform BTC.
22/n
A few months ago I made this schematic, which shows very well how an altseason is developed. This is dynamic and it may not quite fit reality, but it gives us a clear vision.
We are currently in phase 2 of the second altseason.
23/n
At this level the second phase could end, and there would be a bounce of the dominance. Consolidation below = third phase
24/n
0.10 is inevitable, and a new ATH is very likely. With a new ATH, we could see ETH above BTC in the ranking for a few days.
26/n
These two trends are very similar and I would not be surprised if Ethereum repeats the cycle of LINK against Bitcoin.
27/n
The most bullish chart you'll probably see these days.
After that accumulation range, extension could be huge.
28/n
It's confirming the break of the range high, which is very good for altcoins.
https://t.co/5RJ8fb8M36
29/n
#OTHERS dominance has been on a bullish trend since 2014, but it's consolidating since mid 2017.
— il Capo Of $NOIA (@CryptoCapo_) December 28, 2020
Break below 4.75% level = altseason cancelled
Move up to 12.50% level = altseason
Consolidation above 12.50% = the mother of all altseasons pic.twitter.com/Aop7HQTGfw
This chart keeps looking very bullish to me.
https://t.co/dMXGGAB54o
30/n
#DEFIPERP
— il Capo Of $NOIA (@CryptoCapo_) December 28, 2020
Bottom for DeFi index was called here. Now, it's confirming the bullish reversal. Ready to take off.https://t.co/3ZZAeyGLlO pic.twitter.com/VOomh0KN8X
31/n
As some of you know, this is one of my favourite projects.
Chart against USD is a perfect bullish trend. Not even a single sign of weakness. How long can this trend last? Only time will tell, but it will probably be epic.
$10-20 by EOY wouldn't be crazy
32/n
Another very bullish altcoin. Solid trend as the previous one, with strong fundamentals.
Targeting $1+ this year
34/n
A S/R flip for the books. #Polkadot will keep performing very good imo, and it will be one of the majors with better perfomance in the coming months.
36/n
This one will caught many people by surprise. Bullish on the entire #Sora Ecosystem ( $PSWAP, $VAL)
37/n
Ascending triangle in one of the best projects being built in the Polkadot ecosystem.
38/n
Bearish trend broken, re-entering the value zone with strength. A new uptrend is forming.
39/n
Hidden bullsih divergence formed on higher timeframes. One of my favourite NFT projects.
41/n
Waiting for a reclaim of the range high. Project is very good so it should do it soon.
42/n
Bitcoin bullish and alts/btc bullish = altseason
Right?
44/n
-@tradingview
-@cryptoquant_com
https://t.co/5TRVGWKg4v
Disclaimer: nothing posted here is a financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.
45/n
With all this, and some things that although I want to explain, they cannot be explained because they are intrinsic in the mind of an analyst, I can say that the best is yet to come.
46/n
When there are REAL bearish signs, I will start DCAing out.
47/n
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A THREAD ON @SarangSood
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020
