UK variant update:

50% more contagious and the main difference is in the rate of infection in children up to the age of 9.

No significant difference found yet in clinical course, mortality within 28 days or chance of re-infection.

1/

https://t.co/D8DXVvBeew

50% higher infection rate

(Secondary attack rate 15.1% versus 9.8%)

2/
Main effect in children under 9 years old

(see age distributions, second image has overlay of reference onto UK variant)

3/
Essential to stop the UK variant: 50% higher transmission will lead to more cases, more hospitalizations, more ICU cases, more deaths, and greater economic costs.
Independent SAGE's plan for the UK variant

With the new Covid variant everywhere, it's not enough to just wait for the vaccine | Stephen Reicher

5/

https://t.co/cF1HPC3U2l
1)Accelerate vaccinations
2)Control: a) Advance application for travel to and from the UK, a negative PCR test prior to travel, managed isolation on arrival b) Schools should remain closed until buildings are made as safe as possible for pupils and staff
c)Universities online

6/
3) test,trace,isolate: a)Test, b)Trace contacts as quickly as possible, isolate before they can infect others. Include forward tracing (identifying who you might have infected) and backwards tracing (who infected you), c)Practical support to isolate

7/
4) Provide guidance for workplace safety.
5) Provide financial support for the public.

8/
Compare
👉higher fatality, with
👉increase in transmissibility ON fatality.

Example:
50% higher fatality increases deaths from 129 to 193.
50% higher transmissibility increases from 129 to 978 after one month, more if longer

See:
https://t.co/MYiQUL804z

More from Health

this simple, counter narrative fact keeps cropping up all over the world.

hospital and ICU utilization has been and remains low this year.

it's terribly curious that so few of these monitoring tools provide historical baselines.

getting them is like pulling teeth.


we might think of this as an oversight until you see stuff like this:

this woman was arrested for filming and sharing the fact that their are empty hospitals in the UK.

that's full blown soviet. what possible honest purpose does that

this is the action of a police state and a propaganda ministry, not a well intentioned government and a public heath agency.

"we cannot let people see the truth for fear they might base their actions on real facts" is not much of a mantra for just governance.


90% full ICU sounds scary until you realize that 90-100% full is normal in flu season.

staffed ICU beds are expensive to leave empty. it's like flying with 15% of the plane empty. hospitals don't do that.

and all US hospitals are mandated to be able to flex to 120% ICU.

the US is currently at historically low ICU utilization for this time of year.

61% is "you're all going to go out of business" territory as is 66% full hospital use.

can you blame them for mining CARES act money? they'll die without it.

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