UK variant update:

50% more contagious and the main difference is in the rate of infection in children up to the age of 9.

No significant difference found yet in clinical course, mortality within 28 days or chance of re-infection.

1/

https://t.co/D8DXVvBeew

50% higher infection rate

(Secondary attack rate 15.1% versus 9.8%)

2/
Main effect in children under 9 years old

(see age distributions, second image has overlay of reference onto UK variant)

3/
Essential to stop the UK variant: 50% higher transmission will lead to more cases, more hospitalizations, more ICU cases, more deaths, and greater economic costs.
Independent SAGE's plan for the UK variant

With the new Covid variant everywhere, it's not enough to just wait for the vaccine | Stephen Reicher

5/

https://t.co/cF1HPC3U2l
1)Accelerate vaccinations
2)Control: a) Advance application for travel to and from the UK, a negative PCR test prior to travel, managed isolation on arrival b) Schools should remain closed until buildings are made as safe as possible for pupils and staff
c)Universities online

6/
3) test,trace,isolate: a)Test, b)Trace contacts as quickly as possible, isolate before they can infect others. Include forward tracing (identifying who you might have infected) and backwards tracing (who infected you), c)Practical support to isolate

7/
4) Provide guidance for workplace safety.
5) Provide financial support for the public.

8/
Compare
👉higher fatality, with
👉increase in transmissibility ON fatality.

Example:
50% higher fatality increases deaths from 129 to 193.
50% higher transmissibility increases from 129 to 978 after one month, more if longer

See:
https://t.co/MYiQUL804z

More from Health

I think @SamAdlerBell in his quest to be the contrarian on Fauci gets several things wrong here. 1/


First, the failure last year actually was driven by the White House, the #Trump inner circle. Watch what's happening now, the US' scientific and public health infrastructure is creaking back to life. 2/

I think Sam underestimates the decimation of many of our health agencies over the past four years and the establishment of ideological control over them during the pandemic. 3/

I also am puzzled why Tony gets the blame for not speaking up, etc. Robert Redfield, Brett Giroir, Deb Birx, Jerome Adams, Alex Azar all could have done the same. 4/

Several of these people Bob Redfield, Brett Giroir, Alex Azar were led by craven ambition, Jerome Adams by cowardice, but I do think Deb Birx and Tony tried as institutionalists, insiders to make a difference. 5/

You May Also Like

1/ Some initial thoughts on personal moats:

Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.

Characteristics of a personal moat below:


2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.

As Andrew Chen noted:


3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized

Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than


4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.

After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.

5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.

In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.