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How did India go from 90,000 cases per day to just over 10,000?
Answer is compelling
The big picture: Three things are important to stop the pandemic: Travel restrictions (International), travel restrictions (domestic), and strong local lockdowns where there are outbreaks
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India recorded 97,859 cases Sept 16, 2020, the highest single-day number. Since then the cases have seen a significant decline despite the number of tests being substantial. Daily average of over 1M tests in Sept and 700K on Feb 13.
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1. Experience: Successful response efforts in prior pandemics.
2. Less urbanized: 70% of population survives on agriculture. This limits travel and rates of community-to-community transmission, allowing localized actions to stop outbreaks from spreading.
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4. Limited and localized tourism: India is not among top tourist destinations of the world.
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1. Lockdown and Zoning: Starting April 2020, government used a “smart lockdown” strategy with severe restrictions in affected districts, and partial lifting of restrictions in unaffected districts, with opening some sectors to meet the economic challenge..
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In order to further reduce the number of daily cases, India needs to strengthen and continue regulation/restriction in areas reporting cases while allowing return to normalcy in areas without cases.
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Travel restrictions and reaction time could be the key for controlling pandemics.
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The scientific and public health understanding should be clear.
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Dharavi in Mumbai, the largest slum in Asia
https://t.co/54C3rebfdX
How did India go from 90,000 cases per day to just over 10,000?
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 25, 2021
Answer is riveting
Start with Dharabi, largest slum in Asia: Impressive community case finding, contact tracing, isolation, quarantine, communications, massive health and volunteer effort, lockdown, support.
1/ pic.twitter.com/HpvHTEPJfX
CDC/WHO are just beginning to get it right now.
Fresh air replacement best way to prevent airborne transmission of Covid-19: CPWD
https://t.co/Md3aKetG55
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Krugman is, of course, right about this. BUT, note that universities can do a lot to revitalize declining and rural regions.
See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:
And see this thing that I wrote:
And see this book that @JamesFallows wrote:
And see this other thing that I wrote:
One thing I've been noticing about responses to today's column is that many people still don't get how strong the forces behind regional divergence are, and how hard to reverse 1/ https://t.co/Ft2aH1NcQt
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) November 20, 2018
See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:
And see this thing that I wrote:
And see this book that @JamesFallows wrote:
And see this other thing that I wrote: