@JonathanTurley suggests the founders would not react so quickly against a president who led an insurrection. Washington led an army of 13,000 people against a small group of farmers who wouldn't pay their taxes on whiskey.

One founder actually did lead an insurrection. His name was Aaron Burr. He was arrested and charged with treason. He walked on technical reasons and was already out of office so impeachment was not the right option, but he ended up in exile for years afterward.

(Beautifully, while in exile Burr lived in a house on Craven Street in London.) Turley also says that Trump's incitement to insurrection was protected speech. This is beyond ludicrous and shows a lack of understanding of the law that would get him kicked out of any law school.

As Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes laid out in his famous ruling on this matter in Schenck v. United States in 1919 in which he said there was no right to falsely shout fire in a crowded theater...

"The question in every case is whether the words used are used in such circumstances and are of such a nature as to create a clear and present danger that they will bring about the substantive evils that Congress has a right to prevent."

1) "Funded by hundreds of millions of dollars from Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and other high-tech interests, activist organizations created a two-tiered election

This is your daily pension announcement. Lots of you have heard back from your MLA with the the statement below👇. This one is from @JasonCoppingAB, but they are all the same. You need to go back at your MLAs HARD because this is some Stalin level disinformation. #AbLeg #abpoli

In no particular order I will run through the errors:

1. "the Alberta Government ...holds the liability of the ATRF plan.."

Absolutely, unequivocaly false. Read the Teachers' Pension Plan Act. Any liabilities are paid off 49% by the GOA/51% by the teachers. #AbLeg #abpoli

This is a risk shared plan, teachers pick up 51% of the financial risk. This is a benefit to the taxpayers. Not all plans in Canada are risk shared but ATRF sure as hell is.

(even the Fraser Institute admits this) #AbLeg #handsoffmypension

If @JasonCoppingAB would read the latest ATRF Annual Report he would see that we (teachers 51%/49% GOA) are currently paying off a deficiency that is equal to 3.28% of pay. #AbLeg #handsoffmypension

2. Next false statement: he says that section 3.8(c), giving AIMCo the right to refuse instructions from ATRF, is "a standard provision" in these types of agreements. Nope.
Just nope. #AbLeg #handsoffmypension This is a backdoor overreach into the ATRF's affairs.

TSMC $TSM projecting capital expenses of 25-28B USD in 2021. 80% allocated for advanced process tech, 3, 5, 7nm. 10% advanced packaging and mask making, 10% other. 2020 capex, originally slated at $15B, was over $17B. For context $AMD's entire revenue for 2020 estimated at $9.5B

Management sees a growing market and TSMC growing faster than the market, with a 2020-2025 CAGR of 10-15%. In 2019 capex was initially estimated at $10-11B and then revised up to $15B. They are expanding fast, and newer nodes are more capital intensive.

3nm looking good and has strong customer interest, production in 2H 2022.
All this, especially the capex, in line with suggestions Intel will be increasing their use of TSMC fabs, or else AMD making really large increases (or both), but they also project a lot of growth in phones

TSMC utilization rate is very high, and they expect it to remain high in Q1. They expect more revenue in Q1 than in Q4. Margin is hit by the weak USD and the large capex, but they still think a 50% gross margin is reasonable, long term.

Analyst on call surprised at raise in capex, says it is above consensus. Hmmm $INTC?

An extensive yet super simple thread to understand the role of @RBI and how it uses 'Repo Rate' and 'Reverse Repo Rate' 👇🧵

You may bookmark this for further use.

#economy #RBI #financialliteracy

1. Let us first understand the role of Reserve Bank of India in managing the Indian economy.
There are two major elements of the Indian economy.

👉The Businesses:
They are the producers of the goods and services. Any business would be happy if it is growing and the prices of the goods and services sold are ever rising. They would be more interested in ‘Economic growth’.

👉 The Households: These are the people who are consumers and they spend the money to buy the goods and services which are sold by the businesses. Any consumer would be happy if the prices of the goods and services are low. Hence, they would be interested in ‘Less Inflation’.

2. As the prices of goods and services rise, there will be economic growth in nominal sense but then there will also be inflation which is perceived as a problem in developing countries like India.

The Megaphone Report for Wednesday, January 13.

Today’s report is an Oxford University / AstraZeneca vaccine special. First - Australians deserve the most expensive of vaccines.

The purchase of the vaccine is compared to the NBN rollout and corruption is suggested.

Corruption was a running theme connected to the AstraZeneca vaccine purchase - especially in relation to D. Sharma.

Brand shopping was another theme, with demands that Australians must have the best.

The Review: GW 21 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I reflect on the happenings of GW 21 with a look ahead to GW 22:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

I’d like to share that the Fantasy5 had another winner and have now paid out £20k within 5 days! It’s free to enter, a lot of fun and potentially very rewarding. All you have to do is to pick 5 players who you think will beat their predicted

At this point, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, follow up here!

Q: In this section, I analyze the impact of Harry Kane’s loss on Spurs attack.

I know the sample size is small but what’s worth noting is that Spurs have created just ∼0.48 xG in the 130 minutes of football played since Harry Kane has been injured. The eye test seems...

... to back this up – Spurs look lethargic and out of ideas and hence it is no surprise that they haven’t created a single big chance since Kane’s injury. Son was playing more centrally and was Spurs’ most advanced player on the field v Brighton...

I just saw a thread about foster care, which did not paint an accurate picture of why children are removed, foster parent "salary", etc.

As a foster parent I have a few words about the experience.

Content and trigger warning, there will be talk of severe child abuse.

1/x

First, I want to talk about motivation for fostering.

Different people are motivated differently, so I can only speak for my family.

We originally wanted to adopt children because we can't have our own.

While researching adoption, we learned about fostering.

2/x

We felt we had room in our lives to take in kids who needed a place to go. So we shifted our focus.

Since then we have had several children come and go. Each situation was different, and I will get to that.

3/x

Regarding the "salary" we get: there is no salary.

We do receive money to cover some of the costs we incur, like paying for medical care, buying them clothes, etc.

It is not anywhere near the quoted $39K.

4/x

All told, we generally end up going out of pocket to cover all expenses.

We take kids under 3, and as any parent can tell you, diapers, clothes, food, formula, various medical costs... It all adds up really fast.

5/x

Here’s what happened so far -- and how GOP is misreading.

Biden puts out $1.9 trillion relief bill, indicates he’s open to negotiation w/GOP and want’s bipartisan bill, while stressing urgency.

GOP slams it, pretty much says it’s dead on arrival. But...

…GOP doesn’t offer a counter-proposal/engage in negotiation. A typical McConnell move, and he’s clearly directing.

They expected that Biden would come back again with yet another pared down proposal, thinking we’re in 2009 or something.

But he doesn’t.

Instead, Democratic leaders indicate they’ll do it via budget reconciliation, 51 votes, if GOP doesn’t want to get aboard.

Biden reiterates he’d like it to be bipartisan, but if that’s the way it’s got to go, so be it.

No ifs, ands, or buts.

Susan Collins then faints on the couch — feels “betrayed.”

Betrayed for what? Not having a Democrat bow to her?

Of course she’s sent out as a McConnell stalking horse.

But that doesn’t work either.

So very concerned Susan Collins writes a letter to Biden with several other faux-moderate GOP senators, finally offering a counter-proposal because they’re desperate, their plan backfired and don’t want to be seen not signing a relief bill.

$TSM: Fueling the Future of Computing

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. (TSMC) has become the leading manufacturer (fab) of semiconductor chips by capitalizing on a series of egregious missteps at $INTC

This is *not* a buy rec, but rather info for when it's actionable

A thread👇

1/ The Basics

The first "pure-play" foundry -> enabled the rise of the "fabless" (i.e. design-only) industry

A foundry ("Fab") manufactures microchips (integrated circuits "IC") for customers such as fabless chip companies.

Fab only = sole focus on better process technologies

2/ First Mover

The leader in chip mfg. is the fab that can get to the next “process node” first

Process Node (“Tech”): Used to indicate feature size of transistor - > now marketing tool for chip generation

As @GavinSBaker wrote in Jan '19, TSMC passed INTC at the 7nm node

3/ Market Overview

All electronics = powered by semis

3 Types of Companies:

1. Integrated Device Mfgs. (“IDM”): $INTC, KOSE: A005930, $TXN, $MU

2. Fabless: $NVDA, $AMD, $QCOM, $AVGO

3. Fabs: $TSM, $UMC, $SMICY, GF

Market Size: Semis power all electronics…

4/ Technology Advantage

Tech dominance while other foundries can’t keep up (GF dropped out at 7nm)

Tech advantage -> customer additions ($AMD from GF)

1) 5nm already in production
2) Specialty tech (5G)
3) Advanced Packaging

TSM: 52% market share

Manu leader + Ecosystem

$GLNG Golar vende Hygo y GMLP. La transacción libera valor inmediatamente. El stake de Hygo ha sido comprado por 18.6M acciones de $NFE y $50M, mientras que la venta de su MLP $GMLP reporta $78M. Al precio actual de NFE, la transacción equivale $1.28bn vs $1.5bn GLNG market cap

En mi opinión Golar podría haber conseguido mayor valoración a través de la salida a bolsa de Hygo. Sin embargo, acabamos de aumentar notablemente la valoración de Golar de LP. ¿Por qué? Golar estaba atado a Hygo con la IPO ya que tendría un stake del 40% y Stonepeak otro 40%

Golar no podría vender su participación y obtener cash para centrarse en el negocio realmente diferencial, FLNG. A raíz de esta transacción Golar posee un 9% de NFE que creo que venderá en los próximos años para acelerar el negocio core. Además, al mismo tiempo se deshace de GMLP

Cada proyecto nuevo de FLNG aumenta la valoración entre 7-10$ y ahora mismo la mayor barrera para nuevos proyectos es el balance débil de GLNG. El FLNG requiere una fuerte inversión inicial ($700M) que se sustituye por deuda en el momento en que el FLNG se encuentra operativo.

Con los precios actuales de LNG en Asia esperamos Hilli completamente operativo en 2H. Además, con el nuevo cash creemos que Golar puede acelerar los proyectos FLNG en pipeline y anunciar Gimi II en los próximos 12-18 meses. Esto incrementaría el precio objetivo de Golar >35$

A thread on Trump’s deplatforming and why I think the debate about it reveals the bankruptcy of contemporary free speech law. 1/17

Many of those who approve of the platforms’ decisions to ban Trump argue that current First A law grants speakers no right of access to privately owned property. and conclude that there is no free speech issue here. 2/17

They’re right on the doctrine: the Roberts Court has gone to extraordinary lengths to make clear that private actors enjoy total freedom under the First A to censor whatever speech they like. 3/17

But this wasn’t always the rule. Until the 1970s, the rule was that the First A limited the ability of private owners to exclude speakers from sufficiently important private speech forums. 4/17

And the current rule is a bad one! Today almost all of the important mass public speech forums are privately owned. Do we really want private companies to completely control who gets to speak in these vital public spaces? Surely not. 5/17

Would you start your career as a model validator in a major bank if you hope one day to become a front office quant?
@GARP_Risk @actuarynews
@Actuary_Dot_Org @actuarialpost
@iSixSigma @artemisbm @SOActuaries
@CQFInstitute @aier @CFAinstitute

Many Financial / Middle Office Risk and other Quantitative Economics/ Financial Market-led research roles interface at one level or the other across FIs.
I don't know if a bank uses Employee Rotation, to foster employee learning, training and development across the 3LOD Model?

But, most of the banks, in the Advanced Markets, to use job rotation as a tool, to disseminate professional knowledge and understanding of financial market operations, among their employees.

I started my career as a Derivatives Dealer in the front office, but later ended up in the Middle Office Risk Control Unit, and further onwards in my career, moved directly into the Front Office, as a Fund Portfolio Risk Controller

Model Risk Assessment and its Validation now exists as an independent function among most of the large banks, funds and insurance firms.

#Milan 2019/20 accounts cover a season when they finished 6th in Serie A and reached the semi-final of the Coppa Italia, but were excluded from Europe for FFP issues. Second season under the ownership of American hedge fund, Elliott Management Corporation. Some thoughts follow.

#Milan pre-tax loss widened from €143m to €192m (post-tax €195m), the worst result in club’s history (partly due to COVID), as revenue fell €56m (25%) from €228m to €172m, while profit on player sales up €3m to €15m. Expenses slightly lower, including €30m exceptionals.

#Milan largest revenue decrease came from broadcasting, down €42m (40%) from €105m to €63m, though match day also fell €10m (31%) from €34m to €24m and player loans were down €5m to €8m. Commercial was slightly higher, up €1m to €77m.

As a technical aside, this international definition of #Milan €172m revenue is different to the one used in the club accounts, which also includes €20m gain on player sales plus a tiny increase in asset values, giving revenue of €192m, down €49m (20%) from prior year €241m.

#Milan wage bill was cut €24m (13%) from €185m to €161m, while other expenses were down €7m (8%) to €88m. Player amortisation rose €14m (18%) to €95m, while player write-downs increased €18m from €2m to €20m. Net interest decreased €4m from €10m to €6m.

1/ Hey guys, remember that time Steve Bannon ran an army of game virtual currency miners in Asia, for sale to westerners at discount prices, arbitraging attention for profit?

That was

2/ “The company was founded by former child star Brock Pierce, and Bannon was an investor. Bannon managed to convince Goldman Sachs to plow $60 million into a company that sold imaginary goods in an imaginary world.”

In 2020, Brock Pierce ran for President. Guess who...

3/ was Pierce’s campaign manager?

Brittany Kaiser, the fake whistleblower who left Cambridge Analytica in late March 2018 — right *after* it blew

4/ Guess who was all excited about today’s $GME activity? Steve Bannon and Russia shill, Jack Posobiec. They called it a “populist uprising against Wall Street.” That’s cool... just leftists, Steve Bannon, and Russia shills cheerleading for the same stuff. It happens...

1.Evolution is our top pick heading into February. We assess the company’s moat and long-term growth rate as highly misunderstood and often viewed upon with, in our view, undeserved skepticism.

2.We view the acquisition of NetEnt as a rare combination of revenue and margin expansion with tangible opportunities to leverage upon. It is our understanding that Evolution will further strengthen the offering and move more towards becoming a one-stop-shop for operators.

3.With the help of NetEnt’s offering, Evolution will be able to penetrate new markets faster. Furthermore, we assess that Evolution, who are known for their innovation, will infuse new life into NetEnt’s own product line.

4.We also see synergies from the acquisition on the cost side. Evolution’s management is renowned for running a tight ship with a focus on profitability, something we got a glimpse of as they announced a large restructuring on the day of the acquisition.

5. In addition, from our research, Playtech’s largest competitive advantage compared to Evolution is its ability to offer more services than just live casino.