@paulbuitink 1-Since the ECB has singularly failed to provide financial stability to the eurozone, but instead was responsible for record credit boom-busts in Ireland, Portugal, Spain etc. followed by vast unemployment and sovereign debt crises, why should the ECB be given any FURTHER powers?

2-Nobody needs CBDC. There is no demand for it. Please provide actual evidence that there is popular demand for it. (NB Demand for bitcoin is no such proof; demand for cash is no such proof, especially since CBDC is designed to abolish cash for negative rate/expropriation policy)

3-Conflict of interest. ECB is banking regulator in the eurozone. Now it is seriously contemplating compromising its umpire role as regulator by stepping into the arena and wanting to directly compete against the banks, which are regulated by the ECB (CBDC=current accounts)...

3b Isn't this anti-competitive; unfair competition? Throws new light on the ECB's past 20 years of policies, which have been aggressively anti-(small)-bank. As the ECB now admits it wants to compete with the banks, have its policies of killing so far 4,800 banks been intentional?

4-ECB claims that CBDC may increase financial stability, but it has been the ECB's disastrous policies that have caused dramatic financial instability over the entire period of the ECB's existence. Why should anyone believe the ECB's claim to aim at financial stability?...

A thread on Trump’s deplatforming and why I think the debate about it reveals the bankruptcy of contemporary free speech law. 1/17

Many of those who approve of the platforms’ decisions to ban Trump argue that current First A law grants speakers no right of access to privately owned property. and conclude that there is no free speech issue here. 2/17

They’re right on the doctrine: the Roberts Court has gone to extraordinary lengths to make clear that private actors enjoy total freedom under the First A to censor whatever speech they like. 3/17

But this wasn’t always the rule. Until the 1970s, the rule was that the First A limited the ability of private owners to exclude speakers from sufficiently important private speech forums. 4/17

And the current rule is a bad one! Today almost all of the important mass public speech forums are privately owned. Do we really want private companies to completely control who gets to speak in these vital public spaces? Surely not. 5/17

If the connotation of risk is an intertwined concept and is difficult to quantify, how does a Risk Officer look at it?
Is there any way other than using copula models to determine systemic risk with long tails or a black swan event?
@CQFInstitute @GARP_Risk @SOActuaries

I guess we are worried about Market and Credit Risks or other interrelated financial risks which can create conjoint loss given events.

Any #Gaussian distribution model will enable you to model and predict potential Operational, Liquidity and Balance sheet AL - (Asset - liability) Mismatch, Market and Credit drove losses under normal market conditions.

But in the financial sector, the trend has been to emphasize more on #material and #quantifiable risks, which adhere to SPC #Statistical Process Control such as Credit and Market risks, at least in the context of financial instruments with a #linear pay -off.

Research has shown that even in the financial sector most of the #tail #risk event impacts are #Operational in nature=>
•75- 80% of the loss given events are classified as Operational #LGE - (LOSS GIVEN EVENTS),
•Only 15%- 20% of the LGEs are driven by Market or Credit or both

$GLNG Golar vende Hygo y GMLP. La transacción libera valor inmediatamente. El stake de Hygo ha sido comprado por 18.6M acciones de $NFE y $50M, mientras que la venta de su MLP $GMLP reporta $78M. Al precio actual de NFE, la transacción equivale $1.28bn vs $1.5bn GLNG market cap

En mi opinión Golar podría haber conseguido mayor valoración a través de la salida a bolsa de Hygo. Sin embargo, acabamos de aumentar notablemente la valoración de Golar de LP. ¿Por qué? Golar estaba atado a Hygo con la IPO ya que tendría un stake del 40% y Stonepeak otro 40%

Golar no podría vender su participación y obtener cash para centrarse en el negocio realmente diferencial, FLNG. A raíz de esta transacción Golar posee un 9% de NFE que creo que venderá en los próximos años para acelerar el negocio core. Además, al mismo tiempo se deshace de GMLP

Cada proyecto nuevo de FLNG aumenta la valoración entre 7-10$ y ahora mismo la mayor barrera para nuevos proyectos es el balance débil de GLNG. El FLNG requiere una fuerte inversión inicial ($700M) que se sustituye por deuda en el momento en que el FLNG se encuentra operativo.

Con los precios actuales de LNG en Asia esperamos Hilli completamente operativo en 2H. Además, con el nuevo cash creemos que Golar puede acelerar los proyectos FLNG en pipeline y anunciar Gimi II en los próximos 12-18 meses. Esto incrementaría el precio objetivo de Golar >35$

I want to announce my candidacy for Tennessee Democratic Party Treasurer.

The reason I am running for this office is because I feel I can add value to the @tndp My financial and budgeting experience as a Certified Public Accountant will be very beneficial to this position. /1

I want the @tndp to be able to easily analyze and disseminate useful information to county parties, candidates and individuals as needed. I feel we need to ramp up our data collection and resources in order to parallel other successful states such as Georgia. /2

Our financial reporting analysis can be geared toward helping us have more information when we go out in the field for voter outreach, help us with donors and also be invaluable in helping build an infrastructure for candidates going forward. /3

I have above average experience with VoteBuilder, which is very similar to auditing software. I know how we can use our financial records and data analysis to help win elections. I cannot promise you that I know everything /4

I can promise you that I will make sure we have effective recording, reporting and analysis that suits our needs in the TNDP.

While I have ideas how to improve, I am also an experienced, successful business person. Implementation has to be considered in every plan. /5

As part of the BC Basic Income project, my team and I were tasked with trying to understand the system of income and social supports available to BC residents. We developed these visualizations which have proven very popular

Pair these with our paper that goes through a detailed description of the system of income and social supports in BC here

TLDNR? There are 194 programs offered by the various governments that are available to support BCers in various stages of life and crises. The federal government offers more supports in terms of money, the province more in terms of basic services.

While complexity has disadvantages, a big advantage is that the multiple points of entry actually means that there are multiple ways a person can be assessed for assistance for all these programs better capturing those that fall through cracks in other programs.

Given that the fed tends to offer cash programs and BC tends to offer basic services and we were asked if BC should offer a basic income, naturally this begs the tradeoff question then should BC replace its services with income supports. Our answer was unequivocally no.

This is part 3 of my guide to managing burnout in your staff. I'll link parts 1&2 at the bottom.

Today, I'll be concentrating on the longer term. This is the organisationally hard part as you'll be battling both internal inertia and finances.

1/

The first two parts were:
1. Managing burnout today
2. Managing tomorrow

Each incremented up in organisational challenge, moving from operations to crisis planning, and now to future planning to help build organisational resilience

2/

This follows the same format as before, I'll provide a skeleton for local plans with some suggestions on ways to do that.

The aim is to create an organisation capable of minimising burnout, and to provide structure to those who need help.

3/

In part 1, I showed 5 ways to help today, these are the same for planning long-term:

Rest
Recovery
Reserves
Rotation
Rehabilitation

They follow much the same principles, you just have a lot longer to get them right! These are suitable for all sizes of organisation.

4/

BEFORE YOU START

This must have senior ownership, it's not acceptable to delegate this to a HR team, facilities/estates or lower level managers. If you're too important to manage your staff wellbeing then you're in the wrong job.

Let's start with information gathering:

5/

After needlessly arguing over the effect of discount rate and inflation, I decided to analyze its impact on the credit market myself. I used SBP monthly data from its website (stock). Flow data would have been better but I worked with what was available.

A thread.

Government borrowing was impacted by the discount rate. At 13.25%, GoP borrowed appears to have stopped increasing. As the size of private-sector borrowing is smaller than GoP borrowing, we will look at private-sector borrowing separately.

Private sector borrowing: stand-alone and starting the left axis from Rs.3 trillion so that changes are visible. It appears private sector borrowing kept increasing till Dec 18 when the discount rate was raised to 10%.

SBP started decreasing discount rate in March 2020 along with some other initiatives to spur growth. But now it was too late. Pandemic had struck. Private sector borrowing continued to fall. You can read about SBP initiatives here

The impact of SBP discount rate is obvious here if we look at it YoY. Credit to Private sector continued to grow till Dec 2018. Growth in credit clocked at 16% and 21% in 2017 and 2018. After that SBP's moves up or down stopped having any impact. 4% growth in 2019 and 0% in 2020

Follow up post on GME answering common questions (e.g. if they short is still >100% of float, wouldn't that cause another short

1/ Official short interest is only posted twice per month. Daily estimates by data firms (e.g. S3 Partners) can be inaccurate, especially if there is high intraday volume and volatility

2/ De-grossing suggests that hedge funds facing existential loss likely to have already covered.

Short positions opened in last 3 days was ~35M shares all above $300 suggesting that the cost basis has been reset. The original shorters have likely covered already.

3/ There is a staggering 1.38m put options open vs. 233k call options. This 1.15m net put exposure means that MM likely owning ~11m shares short for delta hedging. These shares are unlikely to be squeezed

4/ Short squeeze and gamma squeeze likely to have already occurred. Continued share price increases likely driven by new investors joining WSB/RH. Buying of GME has now expanded beyond US to other countries.

@TracyICQ @bitchute Greetings! Thank you Tracy! What interest me is Demonstration proofs of ongoing private side operations RICO Tax Audit account perspectives: Due ONLY to historical worldwide Acquisitions Disclosing all sovereign nations' transactions & communications of oversight fiduciaries
B-1

Short introduction about $RSD #Realstabledollar

Real Stable Dollar is a fork inspired by the Empty Set Dollar (ESD) and Dynamic Set Dollar (DSD) projects.

Real Stable Dollar is a decentralized stablecoin that uses a supply elasticity method around a Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP) for price stability. It’s an algorithmic stablecoin that uses TWAP to maintain the price at $1.

Features:

🔸Epoch Time: 1 Hr (Configurable by DAO voting)
🔸DAO lock up 72 epochs (3 Days)
🔸LP lock up 48 epochs (2 Days)
🔸Supply change limit Per Epoch
First 3 Days: 2.5%
After 3 Days: 1.5%
🔸Decentralized Governance
🔸USDC pool
🔸5% tax on selling during contraction period

🔸When out of contraction period, two epochs will also have 5% Tax
🔸Bootstrapping period: 12 days

I support Mexican travel vouchers as a stimulus package, usable in the country of Mexico by receipt.

$1,000 travel vouchers to every family now

Must spend the money in Mexico with receipt

Cabo San Lucas, Cancun anybody?

Got to preserve our go to North American spots!

Or you can call these sanctions on the GOP, for dangerous Latino rhetoric the last 5 years.

This could also be the cultural learning experience that the GOP truly is calling for regarding their calls of unity ;)

GOP, put your money where your mouth is and give us $1,000 stimulus packages to Mexico!! If you truly want, unity.

Vouchers accepted in Cuba, Puerto Rico, Dominican republic, Jamaica, and Hawaii.

Florida travel ban, NOW

With $50-$500 dApp interaction fees, DeFi mainly just caters to the whales

Major DeFi apps launching on Layer 2 can 10x the number of DeFi users

2021 is the year it happens

But DeFi apps will be launching across a host of different L2s - zksync, Starkware, Optimism, Matic, etc

With long or costly exit times moving between L2 to L1 to a different L2 users don't get the real DeFi UX that make it so magical

Luckily, @thorchain_org exists

People talk about Thorchain in the context of connecting other L1s, but most L2s are separate blockchains themselves that can just as well connect to Thorchain

This means that if Thorchain bridges were built for say Optimism & zksync, users would not need to go through the cumbersome process of moving to L1 first and could instead trade their Optimism coin for the same version of that coin on zksync in one tx

And since transactions on L2 are fast and cheap, so would the transaction to transfer assets between those chains

The UX for moving between chains is dramatically simplified and Arbitragers/Market makers will ensure that the version of each coin is pegged across the L2s

Question of the day: How would one model how much money was spent trying to convince conservatives to vote for the Democratic party, and what would happen if more of it had been spent on Black and Latina organizers?

I'll be upfront: I'm not qualified to do this work. But I'd like to know if anyone is doing it or what the process of inquiry would be. Here's why....

I was on a private panel with a credentialed white political scientist. He said that "the only way" to win the elex and reclaim democracy was to persuade white conservatives to abandon Donald Trump.

I told him I rejected that out of hand because it stripped me of all agency as a Black woman, and I could never wait for anyone to save me.

A lot of money went into persuading white conservatives that doesn't seem to have moved the needle. At the same time, in other private conversations (these are off the record panels of various types), Black/Latina organizers talked about Texas.