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#CentralAfricanRepublic (THREAD)

1) 200 to 300 rebels attacked the capital #Bangui today (PK9, PK11, PK12 & Bimbo areas).

Govt, #Russian & #Rwandan troops repelled them. But the rebels remain in the hills & areas surroundings the capital.

Read @CrisisGroup statement 👇

 2) The rebels were generally equipped or light weapons (including #AK47 & grenades), several #RPG & probably mortars.

No report of the casualties yet.
3) It's unlikely that they really wanted to size the capital, if not they would have come in bigger number.

They seem to be trying to isolate the capital from the rest of the country that they already control largely & install an attrition warfare just at the capital doors.
4) Its not excluded they may also be trying to play with the psychology of the Constitutional Court which will proclaim the final results of the elections in the coming days.
5) One thing is sure, with the new offensive of the rebellion, including at the capital doors, it becomes more difficult, if not unwise, to organize the second round of the elections for National Assembly.
6) #CAR urgently needs dialogue.

The subregion #ECCAS should enhance its efforts in that direction at the heads of State level & #AfricanUnion should consider #CAR crisis among its first priorities.

Countries like #Cameroon which always play ostrich diplomacy should step up.
7) Big international players such as #Russia & #France should play a political role.

If they dialogue among themselves & combine their efforts, the two countries could have enough leverage to push the key protagonists (#Touadera vs #Bozize & armed groups) to the dialogue table.
8) The alternative to dialogue is only a protracted war with huge possible consequences from each protagonist.

- For #Touadera, a protacted war could poison his second term, force him to become the president of #Bangui & he could even be overthrown at the end.
9) For #Bozize, a protracted war will condemn him and his family to a fugitive life for years, with risks of being militarily defeated, arrested or killed.
10) Finally, there is a risk of civil war. Militia "Les Requins" close to #Touadera arrested & reportedly executed some soldiers and civilians close to #Bozize. Bozize tribesmen Gbaya promised to retaliate if that continues.

This could be a dangerous escalation of the conflict

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Bonhoeffer, Eric Metaxas & Timothy Keller

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THREAD

1)
Newsweek — #Iran has sent deadly "Shahed-136 suicide/kamikaze drones" to the Houthis in #Yemen. These advanced UAVs are deployed to the Houthi-controlled northern Yemeni province of Al-Jawf.

More reason why the West should not appease Tehran.
https://t.co/gtNDCGbtQs


2)
#Iran has long provided drones to the Houthis

March 22, 2017
“… seven Houthi Qasef-1 drones and one drone engine recovered by forces from the UAE. Six of the drones were captured in October on a known Iranian smuggling route that runs through

3)
US to designate #Iran-backed Houthis in #Yemen as a foreign terrorist org (FTO)
https://t.co/ILBCg3Pfvs

Iran’s IRGC long funded/armed/trained/provided for the Houthis.

Dec 30—Missile attack on Aden airport. Yemen gov holds Houthis


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#Iran provides at least $360 million, ballistic missiles, other ordnance, technology and training to the Houthis in

5)
The Houthis recently claimed responsibility for a missile attack targeting Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil
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Chinese president Xi Jinping is the lead speaker at this week's Davos Agenda, the World Economic Forum's online summit.


Xi lays out four priorities for world:

1) Step up "macroeconomic policy coordination" and promote "strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth of the world economy";

2) Abandon ideological prejudice and "jointly follow a path of peaceful coexistence." Says no country is superior to another. "There would be no human civilization without diversity," he adds, taking aim at "arrogance, prejudice and hatred";

3) Close the divide between developed and developing countries. "With the growth of developing countries, global prosperity and security will be put on a more (solid) footing"; and,

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Portugal is famous for its mild climate and sunny beaches, but each year hundreds of people freeze to death and millions struggle to survive frigid winter weather.

Here's a quick thread based on my @POLITICOEurope story on Portuguese energy poverty

When I lived in Lisbon my friends and I joked that although the Portuguese were famous for melancholia, uncharacteristic (and unrealistic) optimism defined their approach to thermal insulation: homes seemed to be built as if the weather was expected to be perfect year-round.


While the weather is, indeed, really great for most of the year, it can also be really awful sometimes. In the Summer temperatures can shoot up to truly unbearable levels for weeks on end, and in the Winter the icy humidity can easily make you feel like you're freezing 24/7.


This reality is a huge problem precisely because so many Portuguese people live in homes that don't have the capacity to shelter them from the heat when temperatures rise and the cold when they drop. And that means that every year that means people die because of the weather.


This issue can be traced back to the rural exodus that took place during the second half of the XX century, when millions fled the interior to seek better futures either outside the country — immigrating to France, Germany and Luxembourg — or in cities like Lisbon and Porto.
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1. TLDR: What will it take for Pakistan to pressure the Taliban into a ceasefire? Pressure, concessions, clear priorities, & ultimately cooperation from Pakistan. A very tall order.

2. Many Afghanistan policy proposals require some action by Pakistan. But as usual there is a disconnect where Washington believes it can demand Pakistan "do more" without providing much in return and Islamabad thinks half-measures will suffice. It is a destructive dance.

3. Pakistan helped bring the Taliban to the negotiating table in Doha but stopped there & instead opted to tacitly support the Taliban’s bargaining position to enter into a ceasefire only after further concessions from Kabul & US troops leave.


4. The Taliban are overplaying their hand by delaying talks & escalating violence, while Pakistan is underplaying its hand by refusing to add pressure.

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- What’s in it for me? (sensitive to "do more")
- Less influence over current TB leadership.
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