Out of 17 stocks that I own, I am allowed to go wrong in 2-3 of them. Not going wrong shows that you are not taking enough risks or operating on the edge. Learning from mistakes is the number 1 way to improve as an investor. An excerpt from the annual letter :)

Muthoot finance vs Manapurram Finance: Deep value opportunities?

Link to the blog🔗:https://t.co/MMQVfbRGuZ
By- @badola_arjun

-Gold Loan Business
-Diversification or Diworsification?
-Comparison between both
-Sources of risks

Commandments of Investing Success!

Some of the key principles of investing that have helped me in my journey.

Retweet for Max reach!

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Commandment 1

Investing is a game of probabilities and not a game of possibilities. First thing that is the most important is to adapt your investing philosophy to your own circumstances. Eg:- if you are able to give less time to research then it is foolish to buy

concentrated positions or companies that are just emerging with a higher allocation.

Commandment 2

This is the one where I have been burnt in the past. Hopefully I have learnt my lesson, always pencil in conservative growth estimates. Let the business beat your low

expectations and then take a victory lap. At the end you are here to compound your capital and not look like a hero.

Commandment 3

Have both concentration and diversification work for you. Make a portfolio of 12-20 stocks. Look for different themes. Concentrate in your top

Positions (10-11 stocks) and the other stocks should be like football players who are warming the bench and willing to play as soon as they get on to the pitch to replace any stock (one) who is injured or cannot continue to play.

What is a Qualified Institutional Placement and what do I like about them (more to do with the QIP doc)

Time for a thread🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵

What is a QIP?

A QIP or a Qualified Institutional placement allows a company to raise capital by issuing securities (by diluting equity) only to institutions.

Only Qib's or Qualified Institutional Buyers can participate in QIP's. This includes Mutual Funds, Foreign institutions

and Pension funds etc. (From my knowledge PMS' or any individual investor cannot participate in Qip's).

Just to give you an example:- Look at the investors who participated in the QIP of Saregama (750 crores)

Another example is the Qip of Deepak Nitrite in 2016 for the Phenol Project (size of the project was 1400 crores+)

The QIP witnessed participation from some of the top domestic institutional investors namely Reliance MF, Birla MF, ICICI Pru MF

Question arises, Why did SEBI allow for creation of QIP as an instrument for raising money?

QIP was introduced in the Indian Markets in 2006 by Sebi. As the regulator was concerned that the domestic companies were getting too dependent on raising money through

What all do I read to keep myself informed about new opportunities and to keep updating myself with the new happenings in the world?

Time for a thread about all tools I use to research,Find information and update myself about different subjects

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Blog Subscriptions I am subscribed to for investing:

1. @borrowed_ideas
2. Non-Gaap Substack
3. The Flywheel substack
4. Read The Generalist
5. Kiran D- has a blog on word press
6. Uncommon Profits
7. Used to read stalwart but they reduced the posting
8. @rohitchauhan

9. @IntelsenseI
10. @SeekingAlpha
11. @themotleyfool
12. Betaoalpha Substack by @mehrotra_saket
13. @MarcellusInvest
14. @PerfectResearch

Others that I like to read

1. @TheKenWeb
2. @EconomicTimes Prime. Recently they have improved
3. @TheEconomist
4. @forbes_india

Sectoral experts/Analysts that I follow:

For Pharma- @AdityaKhemka5 , @unseenvalue & @punitbansal14 + Contract Pharma for cdmo

For Banking- @HemindraHazari , Digant Haria and Ashish Gupta from Credit Suisse (he's terrific)

For chemicals- Rohit Nagraj from Emkay Global

and chemical weekly+Chemical reports monthly from B&K securities

Broker reports that I like to read whenever I can:

1. Spark capital-hands down the best reports in the country.

2. Ambit- publish some good stuff. But rarely available

3. JM Financial- exceptional reports.

@contrarianEPS Half the tension goes away when you move to tracking PF level returns. No matter what you do, there will be some losers

Live tweeting highlights from our discussion with @SamitVartak moderated by @ishmohit1 and the DIA gang. @saket1974 @saketreddy @dadalife369 @cautkarshpandey @vishal_chandi

So let’s begin -

1. Before looking at the valuation of a business, look at the fundamentals first.

On cyclicals -

2. We look for profit power, the ability of the company to control price and gauge profit. This is why we don’t look at cyclicals.

3. With cyclicals, oftentimes the promoters themselves cannot predict pricing and profitability.

On building a portfolio -

1. Reducing the size of your portfolio too much can make it harder to find big winners, the ones that can give up to 40x in 10 years.

2. I look at 15-20 stocks as a balance between not spreading yourself too thin and not takeing too much risk.

On taking away market share -

1. Creating disruptions and innovating with new products allows you to take away market share. Example #APLApollo and the DFT technology.

2. Cash cows don’t deliver outsized returns for an investor. Aggression and innovation is needed.

On themes -

1. It is very difficult to pre-empt a theme before it happens and predict how it will play out. Instead of that, I look for data.

2. Deleveraging and capex is taking place. Companies have become lean in this period.

What should your goal be as an investor?

I see a trend on SM of retail investors trying to copy stock ideas of those whom they view as knowledgeable investors. Please DO NOT do this. Do your own research & build/follow your own process. Buying a business on borrowed conviction is a terrible idea. 1/n

If you’re lucky, you’ll end up copying someone like @ishmohit1 or @itsTarH who are open about their thesis/anti-thesis pointers and entry & exit from a position. If you’re unlucky you might end getting manipulated or left with outdated info about someone’s invested position. 2/n

Either way, u cannot clone someone’s conviction, which is why you’ll never get their results. Better 2 make modest returns with conviction based on ur own research, instead of trying to clone others. Network, share ideas, data & views. But say NO 2 copy-pasting stock ideas. 3/n

If you respect & r impressed by someone, please study their process. Copy the parts that work for you. In the end, you get the results that you’ve earned. Taking the lazy approach of बस stock बता दो will never make you wealthy. Invest in yourself & the results will follow 4/n

@morganhousel Expected long-term cash flows, discounted by the cost of capital—not reported earnings—determine long-term stock prices.

In the short-term, Mr Market is bipolar and very susceptible to stories and what is fashionable.