Out of 17 stocks that I own, I am allowed to go wrong in 2-3 of them. Not going wrong shows that you are not taking enough risks or operating on the edge. Learning from mistakes is the number 1 way to improve as an investor. An excerpt from the annual letter :)

Once invested it's your duty to look for Anti Thesis pointers/disconfirming evidence. Don't get caught up in echo chambers. Investing is lonely because of this

Let's Understand why Narrative is important in investing and how to create a Thesis that can help you to hold a stock in spite of the market environments

Time for a thread with international and Indian examples, Please retweet so that everyone can benefit 🧵🧵🧵🧵

The world we see and defined is given meaning by the words we choose to use. In short, the world is what we make of it. Something similar applies to creating a thesis before investing in a stock. Your thesis is what makes you hold a stock thick and through in spite of bull/bear

Example 1: Amazon- In May 1997, Amazon became a publically listed business. The target price set by analysts was $18 per share. It finished its first day at $23 per share. (So much for targets). In 1999, in the middle of the tech bubble. Same stock was trading at $100 per share.

Analysts were giving targets of $300 per share. However, after the collapse of the bubble many internet businesses went bust, but Amazon survived in spite of a 78% drop from 1999 highs. As we all know, Price changes perception. Same analysts started claiming it was massively

overpriced and claimed its days were "numbered". By the end of 2002, it was trading at 90times cash flow (so much for multiples to account for future)

Six key learnings from a friend/mentor in investing:-

1. Investing is a game of probabilities and not possibilities.

2. Sizing is the most important decision that you make.

3. Being a generalist and learning from sectoral experts is fun.

4. Identify the key variables

And learn how to probabilistically see how these variables move in the future.

5. Benchmark companies within a sector and then see which one is doing what, it will sooner or later reflect in financials.

6. Network as much as you can. Network is the modern day networth.

The Basics of a Balance Sheet explained from scratch 🧮➕➖➗

In this thread we will talk about -

1. What is Balance Sheet
2. How Balance Sheet is made?
3. Each line items of Balance Sheet
4. Why it is important

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What is a Balance Sheet:

The balance sheet displays the company’s total assets and how the assets are financed, either through debt or equity. It gives an idea of the financial health of an organization. It is like a snapshot of the financial position at a specified time.

Balance sheet consists of 3 components:
1⃣Assets
2⃣Equity
3⃣Liabilities

The balance sheet is based on the fundamental equation: Assets = Equity + Liabilities.

This is also the golden rule of Finance!

Now let’s dig into each line item on the Balance sheet and understand why the Balance sheet always tallies.

Let’s see how actual balance sheet looks like:

The first part of the BS is Assets.

Assets are those resources or things which the company owns. They can be divided into current as well as non-current assets or long term assets.

Non-current assets: Assets which cannot be easily converted to cash. Like buildings, machinery.

Commandments of Investing Success!

Some of the key principles of investing that have helped me in my journey.

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🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵

Commandment 1

Investing is a game of probabilities and not a game of possibilities. First thing that is the most important is to adapt your investing philosophy to your own circumstances. Eg:- if you are able to give less time to research then it is foolish to buy

concentrated positions or companies that are just emerging with a higher allocation.

Commandment 2

This is the one where I have been burnt in the past. Hopefully I have learnt my lesson, always pencil in conservative growth estimates. Let the business beat your low

expectations and then take a victory lap. At the end you are here to compound your capital and not look like a hero.

Commandment 3

Have both concentration and diversification work for you. Make a portfolio of 12-20 stocks. Look for different themes. Concentrate in your top

Positions (10-11 stocks) and the other stocks should be like football players who are warming the bench and willing to play as soon as they get on to the pitch to replace any stock (one) who is injured or cannot continue to play.

Missed Balaji Amines, got Saregama. Missed Borosil, got Hikal. Both errors of ommision and commision are a part of the game. Have an open mindset that forces you to look for opportunities and to learn from mistakes

Live tweeting highlights from our discussion with @SamitVartak moderated by @ishmohit1 and the DIA gang. @saket1974 @saketreddy @dadalife369 @cautkarshpandey @vishal_chandi

So let’s begin -

1. Before looking at the valuation of a business, look at the fundamentals first.

On cyclicals -

2. We look for profit power, the ability of the company to control price and gauge profit. This is why we don’t look at cyclicals.

3. With cyclicals, oftentimes the promoters themselves cannot predict pricing and profitability.

On building a portfolio -

1. Reducing the size of your portfolio too much can make it harder to find big winners, the ones that can give up to 40x in 10 years.

2. I look at 15-20 stocks as a balance between not spreading yourself too thin and not takeing too much risk.

On taking away market share -

1. Creating disruptions and innovating with new products allows you to take away market share. Example #APLApollo and the DFT technology.

2. Cash cows don’t deliver outsized returns for an investor. Aggression and innovation is needed.

On themes -

1. It is very difficult to pre-empt a theme before it happens and predict how it will play out. Instead of that, I look for data.

2. Deleveraging and capex is taking place. Companies have become lean in this period.

The worst thing that you can learn as an investor early in your journey is to take a reckless risk without much research, and make money

It would take you a lot of time and effort to unlearn that easy money exists in the markets

I always knew that aiming low was the best path for me, and so I merely sought to learn from my betters a few practical mental tricks that would help me avoid some of the worst miscognitions common in my age cohort.