when a stock you own becomes expensive, you rationalize holding on by calling it a compounder. base rate says v v few stocks are real compounders , rest are just pigs with lipstick.

earning growth -skill
re rating - luck

those who don’t believe this, haven’t been in the market long enough to understand this.

Charles Kindleberger: “There is nothing as disturbing to one’s well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich”

zomato’s mcap = 70k cr
if you are a value investor, as per buffett’s logic of good price -> zomato must earn 7,000 cr to 8,500 cr pre-tax profit by fy 27
(actually more as India’s cost of equity is higher)
zomato peak sales 2600 cr

lot of dumb ppl have commented shit despite a mention “if you are a value investor..”

I have seen plenty of Buffettology on Twitter and in other places over the past few years. Its time to clear the air and understand that there wasn't one but 3 different Warren Buffett's that existed throughout his career 📚📚

Time for a thread: 3 Different Buffett's 🧵🧵🧵

One of the biggest mistakes that you as an investor can make is to forget the basic and the most important mental model an investor can have: Numeracy. Being fluent with numbers and respecting the context in which Buffett made his returns.

At the beginning of his career, let's call this Warren Buffett 1 i.e. Between 1957-1968. This was the time when he was working with small sums of money. He was extremely valuation conscious and guess what. How many stocks did he buy and sell between this period?

In this period, he bought and sold nearly 400 stocks. He bought Geico and sold it within 18months, he bought Marshals wealth at a PE of 3 times and he bought Commonwealth at a PE of 5times and sold it at a 60% gain. His returns were mind-boggling too during this time period

No Wonder he said, “The highest rates of return I’ve ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers… I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.” Look at the performance once

Once invested it's your duty to look for Anti Thesis pointers/disconfirming evidence. Don't get caught up in echo chambers. Investing is lonely because of this

"When an industry's underlying economics are crumbling, talented management may slow the rate of decline. Eventually, though, eroding fundamentals will overwhelm managerial brilliance."-Warren Buffett

But people get long runs when they're right on the edge of the wave,

whether it's Microsoft or Intel or all kinds of people,

including National Cash Register in the early days.

The cash register was one of the great contributions to civilization.