BC VALUATION

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Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam 5 years, 4 months ago 713 views

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He laid down very similar principles a decade ago in his 1976 letter (Source: https://t.co/6Z5v0qEaIg)

What's amazing is how consistent he's been in following his philosophy even after nearly 5

More from Dinesh Sairam

Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam

This thread is for investors or those who are interested in CDSL as an investment. Often the central reason quoted for an investment here is the gush of FCF the business produces and some float money also to boot. But this argument ignores a central problem as well. (1/11)

I completely agree that CDSL is a business that produces ample amount of Free Cash. So, it begs the question: "What are they doing with all that cash?" Generally, firms can utilize the cash on their books in 4 ways: Dividends, Acquisitions, Capex/Investments and Buybacks. (2/11)

CDSL does have a Dividend Payout Ratio of ~35-40%. But Dividends are the least efficient way of utilizing cash, due to the Triple Taxation on Dividends. More

Handled well, Inorganic Growth is so lucrative that some companies build their business models around acquisitions (Say, MSSL or Cyient). However, CDSL literally CAN'T be one such company. Read 7 (c) of the below regulatory document to know more:

https://t.co/071lwnnwJ4

(4/11)

CDSL can also reinvest cash into their own business, like most companies do. But CDSL (And most Exchanges) have little need for Capex/Reinvestment. CDSL's IPO came in at Rs. 523.99 Crores. Two years in, the Cash and Investments on their books stands at Rs. 650 Crores. (5/11)

Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam

1/ Since "liquidity" has been the buzzword these days, here's an anecdote and a powerful lesson from history about printing unlimited amounts of money. Story time. #fintwit

2/ Our story begins with Mansa Musa or Musa I of Mali, an African king who consistently figures in the list of richest people in the world (Inflation-adjusted). One of his given names was 'Lord of the (Gold) Mines of Wangara'. Lest we forget, Gold was the 'Money' in those days.

3/ One fine day in 1324, Musa decided to go on a pilgrimage to Mecca. Of course, it was easier said than done. Mecca was ~8,500 Kms away from Timbuktu, Mali. Ultimately he did make that journey and it has been recorded in the script "The Chronicles of the Seeker" by Mahmud Kati.

4/ Famously, he took a ton of 'money' (Gold) with him to aid in his journey (Well in his defense, it was ~8,500 Kms). About 60,000 laborers and soldiers carried 2 Kgs each and their camels carried 13 Kgs each, bringing the tally to an estimated ~1,30,000 Kgs of Gold.

5/ Being a generous King, he donated Gold left and right to every poor person he saw on the way. Regions of Cairo, Medina and Mecca became instantly 'rich'. The estimated donation is ~32,000 Kgs of Gold or ~$2 Billion in today's estimate.

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Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam

1/ There are a ton of books about Financial & Fundamental Analysis, Scuttlebutt and Technical Analysis. But there aren't many books 'taking risk'.

Among the few that exist, 'Zurich Axioms', written in 1985, is the best. Here are my key takeaways from the book.

2/ A bit about Max Gunther's (The Author) background. He was an Anglo-American journalist and writer, who wrote 26 Books.

His father, Franz Heinrich, was the New York Head of Schweizerischer Bankverein, which later merged into the famous Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS).

3/ The 'Zurich Axioms' were a set of unwritten rules followed by a informal group of Swiss Bankers and Traders who used to socialize around Wall Street after World War II. Mr. Heinrich was one of the founding members.

Max Gunter formalied these 'Axioms' by writing about them.

4/ There are 12 'Major Axioms' and 16 'Minor Axioms' (Corollary to the Major Axioms) in the book.

But remember, this is MY key takeaways from the book and not an exact summary. So you might find quotes, phrases and links inserted here and there by me (Not from the Author).

5/ Axiom #1: In order to earn returns, you must take risk. Risk will make you worry.

Risk-taking and worrying go hand-in-hand. If you're not worried about an investment, you're not taking risk.

Spend half your energy towards earning an income and the rest towards speculation.

Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam

1/ I've Valued 150+ companies using the Discounted Cashflow (DCF) Model. Far be it for me to say I am an expert. But if you've done this as much as I have, you start noticing certain patterns.

Here are 10 lessons I've learned from using the Discounted Cashflow Model.

2/ Every investment decision you make follows a Discounted Cashflow calculation.

You let go of X today to earn Y in the future. You wouldn't do that if you didn't expect to earn an expected amount of returns (r).

Nobody wants to let go of X and get back X years down the line.

3/ When you invest in a company, you hold claim over the Assets and the Profits of a Company. Without diluting your ownership, Assets and future Profits are generated out of one thing and one thing alone: Free Cash Flow to Firm.

FCFF is the treasure at the end of the rainbow!

4/ Combining the above two observations, a company may not always make Profits in the present. In fact, if it's a young company or in a new market, losses are a given.

Eventually though, future profits should be large enough to offset or overtake all the past losses in PV terms.

5/ For most companies, generating Returns falls in a spectrum: Have high Margins and generate lower Sales in relation to Capital Employed Vs. Turn Assets faster but have low Margins (Or somewhere in between).

For Indian context, compare the Business Models of D-Mart Vs. NESCO.

Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam

1/ Howard Marks once said that before buying an asset, above anything, he wants to know “the amount of optimism that’s in the price.”

All investors can do this with a handy tool: The Reverse DCF.

I'll also leave a download link to my compact DCF Model at the end of this thread.

2/ We all know a regular DCF. But's what a "Reverse DCF"?

If we consider that a DCF is a Linear Equation, we could say the 'X' (The unknown variable) is the Intrinsic Value.

In a Reverse DCF, we start with the Market Price and try to find some other variable, say Sales Growth.

3/ Let's start by taking an example: VST Industries, a Cigarette-maker based in India.

I valued them on my blog a while ago. I'll be retaining the old assumptions, but using the latest financials.

So please note that the Valuation isn't accurate

4/ This is a "Regular DCF" of VST Industries. The Assumptions I've made indicate an Overvaluation.

The Intrinsic Value is Rs. 3,012, but the Market Price is Rs. 3,492.

Let's not dwell on whether this is correct, since we discussed earlier that this isn't an accurate Valuation.

5/ If we want to do a "Reverse DCF" instead, we need to pick a different variable to 'find'. Say, I will pick the Sales Growth numbers.

I will now remove the Sales Growth numbers from the Model and assume that Sales Growth is the same across the years for ease of calculation.

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Vijay Pillai
@vijaypillai

@_soniashenoy Agree with you on the potential. Tata has got the pricing and the models quite right in comparison to the other options available in the market.

SEE ACT WIN
@SEEACTWIN

VALUATION MULTIPLES FROM FIRST PRINCIPLES

• There is a lot of misunderstanding & misapplication of valuation multiples, both among retail and institutional investors
• Get clarity on this by revisiting the 1st principles here

Prerequisites:
• Finance 101 knowledge

THREAD 👇

KEY CONCEPT: VALUE STAKEHOLDERS
"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder"
"Value is in the rights of the user"
So it is important to ask, "VALUE TO WHOM?"

There are 2 main types of stakeholders in a company:
1. Equity holders
2. Lenders

KEY CONCEPTS: MCAP and EV

Value to equity holders is represented by the Market Capitalization (MCAP).

Value to equity AND lenders is represented by Enterprise Value (EV):

Notice how you can convert between Enterprise Value to Market Capitalization easily

KEY CONCEPT: FCFF

Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) = Cash flows available for distribution to both equity holders AND lenders

Related:
Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) = Cash flows available for distribution to ONLY the equity holders

We will focus on EV & FCFF in the examples

KEY CONCEPT: FUNDAMENTAL VALUE OF A COMPANY

The fundamental/intrinsic value of a company is equal to the present value of the cash flows it would generate in future.

The growing perpetuity expression of value is shown below:

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Akshay Badjate
@abadjate

Here's a fun fact for all the proponents of buying 'Quality companies at any price':

Wipro is a 'Quality Company' and a part of Nifty 50 for most part of the last 20 years

Between 2000-2021, Sales went up 22x while profits went up 33x

Stock returns were basically almost ZERO

Jiten Parmar
@jitenkparmar

There is no doubt that many new age businesses will do fantastically well for quiet a while.

But, will they turn out to be good stocks, is up for debate.

One needs to see how much of the growth has already been built up in the current price.

Risk-reward 🤔

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Journey from deep-hatred (नफ़रत) to deep-love (इश्क़) creates massive valuations re-rating from below 1x sales and 1x book value to anything from 5x to 20x sales and a multiple of book value.

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Now Suniti was the daughter of a tribal chief while Suruchi was the daughter of a rich king. Hence Suruchi was always favored the most by Raja while Suniti was ignored. But while Suniti was gentle & kind hearted by nature Suruchi was venomous inside.
#KrishnaLeela

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One day when Dhruva was just 5 years old he went on to sit on his father's lap. Suruchi, the jealous queen, got enraged and shoved him away from Raja as she never wanted Raja to shower Dhruva with his fatherly affection.

Dhruva protested questioning his step mother "why can't i sit on my own father's lap?" A furious Suruchi berated him saying "only God can allow him that privilege. Go ask him"

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Aneesh Philomina Anton...
@ProdigalTrader

If u are looking to enter a scrip just before the breakout
what would u look for?
How would u identify scrips just before breakout?

Here are a few pointers
Carefully understand the them and use at ur own discretion
(All comments r compiled from a question i posed)

1/23

Price is testing the same resistance repeatedly since long.
But now in recent times it's forming multiple candles near the same resistance with low volume.
Observe it and see for opposite move.
As soon as u get a positive candle, get in to it.

2/23

1. Volume buildup (vol > when resistance point created) along with, increase in OI, increase in delivery % on HTF
2. On LTF, price stalling around breakout area for at least 1-2hr.
3. No major events.

3/23

Stock reaching breakout LVL with HL-HH
Contraction of price and volume near it especially near 20 days ma.
If there is any breach of the latest HL it should be followed by a bullish candle with good volume.
Left side of the chart has a rally with a very steep slope of ma.

4/23

Number of wide range green bars with high volumes.
If stock is at its ATH then it adds more conviction bcz there wont b supply after that point

Consolidation below the resistance, volume of the candles & strong bullish candle closing at near highs just below the resistance

5/23

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Shivaji’s growing influence in Maval region, made him a threat to the Adil Shahi ruler of Bijapur who sought to restrain him. The man who was given the responsibility of this mission, was their commander, Afzal Khan. Afzal was a formidable warrior known for his ruthlessness.(1)

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