He laid down very similar principles a decade ago in his 1976 letter (Source: https://t.co/6Z5v0qEaIg)

What's amazing is how consistent he's been in following his philosophy even after nearly 5

1/ Since "liquidity" has been the buzzword these days, here's an anecdote and a powerful lesson from history about printing unlimited amounts of money. Story time. #fintwit

2/ Our story begins with Mansa Musa or Musa I of Mali, an African king who consistently figures in the list of richest people in the world (Inflation-adjusted). One of his given names was 'Lord of the (Gold) Mines of Wangara'. Lest we forget, Gold was the 'Money' in those days.

3/ One fine day in 1324, Musa decided to go on a pilgrimage to Mecca. Of course, it was easier said than done. Mecca was ~8,500 Kms away from Timbuktu, Mali. Ultimately he did make that journey and it has been recorded in the script "The Chronicles of the Seeker" by Mahmud Kati.

4/ Famously, he took a ton of 'money' (Gold) with him to aid in his journey (Well in his defense, it was ~8,500 Kms). About 60,000 laborers and soldiers carried 2 Kgs each and their camels carried 13 Kgs each, bringing the tally to an estimated ~1,30,000 Kgs of Gold.

5/ Being a generous King, he donated Gold left and right to every poor person he saw on the way. Regions of Cairo, Medina and Mecca became instantly 'rich'. The estimated donation is ~32,000 Kgs of Gold or ~$2 Billion in today's estimate.

@abhishec_s @Sanjay__Bakshi The most rational course of action is to buy below your expected value, hold when it's between your expected value and overvalued zone and sell above overvalued zone (No in-betweens or holding extra cash).

But there are many impediments in executing each step.

1/ There are a ton of books about Financial & Fundamental Analysis, Scuttlebutt and Technical Analysis. But there aren't many books 'taking risk'.

Among the few that exist, 'Zurich Axioms', written in 1985, is the best. Here are my key takeaways from the book.

2/ A bit about Max Gunther's (The Author) background. He was an Anglo-American journalist and writer, who wrote 26 Books.

His father, Franz Heinrich, was the New York Head of Schweizerischer Bankverein, which later merged into the famous Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS).

3/ The 'Zurich Axioms' were a set of unwritten rules followed by a informal group of Swiss Bankers and Traders who used to socialize around Wall Street after World War II. Mr. Heinrich was one of the founding members.

Max Gunter formalied these 'Axioms' by writing about them.

4/ There are 12 'Major Axioms' and 16 'Minor Axioms' (Corollary to the Major Axioms) in the book.

But remember, this is MY key takeaways from the book and not an exact summary. So you might find quotes, phrases and links inserted here and there by me (Not from the Author).

5/ Axiom #1: In order to earn returns, you must take risk. Risk will make you worry.

Risk-taking and worrying go hand-in-hand. If you're not worried about an investment, you're not taking risk.

Spend half your energy towards earning an income and the rest towards speculation.

1/ Howard Marks once said that before buying an asset, above anything, he wants to know “the amount of optimism that’s in the price.”

All investors can do this with a handy tool: The Reverse DCF.

I'll also leave a download link to my compact DCF Model at the end of this thread.

2/ We all know a regular DCF. But's what a "Reverse DCF"?

If we consider that a DCF is a Linear Equation, we could say the 'X' (The unknown variable) is the Intrinsic Value.

In a Reverse DCF, we start with the Market Price and try to find some other variable, say Sales Growth.

3/ Let's start by taking an example: VST Industries, a Cigarette-maker based in India.

I valued them on my blog a while ago. I'll be retaining the old assumptions, but using the latest financials.

So please note that the Valuation isn't accurate

4/ This is a "Regular DCF" of VST Industries. The Assumptions I've made indicate an Overvaluation.

The Intrinsic Value is Rs. 3,012, but the Market Price is Rs. 3,492.

Let's not dwell on whether this is correct, since we discussed earlier that this isn't an accurate Valuation.

5/ If we want to do a "Reverse DCF" instead, we need to pick a different variable to 'find'. Say, I will pick the Sales Growth numbers.

I will now remove the Sales Growth numbers from the Model and assume that Sales Growth is the same across the years for ease of calculation.

EXCERCISE, showing how Discount Rates impact Valuation, using $NFLX as an example.

Why?

“Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices"

--- Warren Buffett

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The Futures curve is pricing in 8 Interest rate increases, or +210bp that the ANALYTS at Investment Banks have NOT yet adjusted for in Models

Investment Banks typically use the 10yr Bond, + Equity risk Premium + Beta Adjustment to arrive at a Discount Rate😉

Cont ..

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Scenario 1 - Use todays scenario Consensus (Factset) with a 7% Discount Rate, gets +10% upside in Share price for $NFLX to $416 (36.3x P/E)

Yet ...

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Scenario 2 - Same Consensus forecast but add 210bp to the Discount Rate. Surprise Surprise😉 Now there is -31% to todays Share price, with a price of $263 (22.9x P/E)

What do you choose 🧐❓

This is why there is always a focus on the 10 Yr Bond, as Equities are priced to Bonds & the cashflow they can generate

Now you can see how sensitive valuations can be to changes in Interest Rates. The Bond Market is pricing in rises, YET Analysts at Investments Banks have not

As investors, we need to qualify the companies in our portfolio.

If they don't meet our cut, we don't invest in them.

Apart from the eventual/current profitability and strong balance sheet, growth is my top requirement.

Here's why:

1/ If a business does not grow, its share price will not grow.

In a corporate lifecycle, a company experiences most growth during its expansion phase. That's where most returns are being created.

This is why high growth companies deliver huge returns.

source: Ravi Kumar

2/ The compounding of growth rates is often underestimated.

It can do wonders for your company.

Growing at 30% turns $1 to $13.79 by Y10.

Growing at 10% turns $1 to $2.59 by Y10.

The share price returns a company can generate based on this is significant.

3/ Here's an example: Crowdstrike $CRWD

It grew its ARR from $71 million in 1Q 2018 to $1,731 million in 4Q 2022.

The magic of compounding.

4/ Simple Back Test

I used my Capital IQ to find out what are the stocks that delivered more than 10x returns in the past 5 years and have at least a market cap of $600m USD.

There are 13 companies.

$APPS $XPEL $TSLA

@contrarianEPS Interesting. In India, people who give such suggestions get sued for 100 crores.

Pay attention. not only the loss making tech continues to get decimated but is joined by the generals of Market.