Journey from deep-hatred (नफ़रत) to deep-love (इश्क़) creates massive valuations re-rating from below 1x sales and 1x book value to anything from 5x to 20x sales and a multiple of book value.

@harindersnanda @soicfinance Most were bullish on #SeQuent a day before the annual results the other week. Most would have left the train in next few quarters due to ESOP led margin compression on P&L. Playing long innings like Rahul Dravid is not same as watching him play :)

@RemindMe_OfThis in 200 days

Only one Indian company is making the country pound in the US when it comes to Biologics #Biocon @Bioconlimited 👏👏

Company floated and nurtured by a women despite all the gender biases. How can the gents be beaten by a lady?

1/ Howard Marks once said that before buying an asset, above anything, he wants to know “the amount of optimism that’s in the price.”

All investors can do this with a handy tool: The Reverse DCF.

I'll also leave a download link to my compact DCF Model at the end of this thread.

2/ We all know a regular DCF. But's what a "Reverse DCF"?

If we consider that a DCF is a Linear Equation, we could say the 'X' (The unknown variable) is the Intrinsic Value.

In a Reverse DCF, we start with the Market Price and try to find some other variable, say Sales Growth.

3/ Let's start by taking an example: VST Industries, a Cigarette-maker based in India.

I valued them on my blog a while ago. I'll be retaining the old assumptions, but using the latest financials.

So please note that the Valuation isn't accurate

4/ This is a "Regular DCF" of VST Industries. The Assumptions I've made indicate an Overvaluation.

The Intrinsic Value is Rs. 3,012, but the Market Price is Rs. 3,492.

Let's not dwell on whether this is correct, since we discussed earlier that this isn't an accurate Valuation.

5/ If we want to do a "Reverse DCF" instead, we need to pick a different variable to 'find'. Say, I will pick the Sales Growth numbers.

I will now remove the Sales Growth numbers from the Model and assume that Sales Growth is the same across the years for ease of calculation.

@_CreatingWealth sure, only request. Plz do not take it negative. Get over metric like PE, even if use it , at least take cash flow based PE. Many times, it would make worst investments attractive n decent one unattractive. It has lot of bias, limitation n constraint. 1 must know before using it

"I think you can predict the future in a few places best if you understand a few basic ideas that come from a good general education"

I love Munger's speech "Practical Thought About Practical Thought?" where he breaks down his $KO analysis.

https://t.co/1Hmzryb3vl

Touching on part of the IV analysis, TAM analysis is often considered nonsensical in certain value investing circles

Yes, TAM can be twisted around to make any investing thesis look better or worse, just like any DCF, but I found it instructive how Munger thinks thru $KO's TAM

Creating segments and classifications about what really works in a sector can help you massively.

EG:- IT is just not about IT, there are Product companies, SAAS Businesses, services companies, ER&D companies and Corporate Learning Companies.

Banking&Finance is just not about Large Private Banks ⤵️

There are regional banks, Small Finance Bank, Public Sector Banks, Regional NBFCs, Deposit taking NBFCs, Housing Finance companies, Microfinance companies, CV Financiers etc.

Chemicals are not just speciality chemicals ⤵️

There are Bulk Chemicals like Phenol, Speciality Chemical and different chemistry chains expert like Fluorine, Bromine, Phosgene etc. Then there are niche product manufacturers like SDA or ATBS.

Retail is just not about Retail ⤵️

There are various segments within retail too! Someone might be doing value retail, someone might be doing luxury retail, Some companies might go for a COCO model (Company owned+Company Operated). Some might go for FOFO model (Franchise owned)

Pharma Contract Manufacturing has various types too ⤵️

Some Like Windlas are just CMO's for generics (low margin), some are present throughout the value chain Like Syngene (Complete CRAMS), some are just in Contract Development and manufacturing of intermediates (Suven)

"You don't drive a truck that weighs 9,900 pounds across a bridge that says "Limit 10,000 pounds" because you can't be that sure."- Warren Buffett