1. Ok, I'm liking @RepSeanMaloney

"I sure as hell didn't win 5 Xs as a gay guy in a Trump district"

Much more imp he just correctly pointed out that even liberal MSNBC gives the GOP a major assist by constantly talking about Defund the Police, socialism, & intraparty fighting

1. Yes, removing @DebHaalandNM from NM CD 1 intros risk on losing the seat, but maybe less now that I am connecting w @RepSeanMaloney.

The GOP will start w descriptive representation on this one. In other words, they will seek to run a Native American. If there IS a Republican

2. American active in politics that resides (or can be said to reside!) in CD 1, they will run that person. This is bc the GOP is esp good at the "biography" end of politics in these specials- IE: Mike Garcia in CA 25.

Ds *think* they're good too. But they're not! All D's needed

3. in CA 25's special election to ensure they held that seat was a qualified Latino nominee who passably personable. They literally GAVE that seat away under this myth that it would be too hard to beat Garcia when the whole election was a story of % R ballots relative to % D

4. ballots- as we ALL watched in the special election. And even with a candidate people told me was "flawed", "a mess" or even "crazy" Ds lost the damn seat again, sealed the loss in the fall general by 333 votes! If that doesn't hurt YJEM, it hurts ME. Makes me want to PUKE!!

5. And although white people, and most particularly white men, who are, in most cases, still in the positions that make the decisions for these things and THUS leave their orgs vulnerable to blind spots that they themselves have huge incentives to not get stuck on, bc like all

1. From convo on @Morning_Joe today about @DrIbram's new article which asks that progressive policy not be blamed for D losses/underperformance.

One of my main concerns is intraparty factionalism/fighting. Everything a "moderate" & "progressive"

2. D fights- a R gets a vote. Certainly radical (and yes, defunding police departments IS radical) policy proposals that fall on the outside bands of the distribution are less attractive to this idealized "swing" voter who is, in our minds eye" always a high info, high reasoning.

3. I guess you'd call them a "fine dining" type voter. But we KNOW that actually, most swing voters are NOT like this. Don't believe me- check out @axios Swing Voter Project, which ran focus groups with Obama to Trump voters through the whole cycle.

4. Indeed, what @richthau learned about America's "deciders" is likely to haunt his sleep for ever as it personified a sticker I keep in my office which is a quote from George Carlin: "Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups." (K.I.M. when we talk "stupid"

5. on my threads about people, we're not talking IQ, or overall stupid. We're talking civics. We're talking about political literacy. Very smart, successful people can't name their senators or their governor & are thus, civically stupid. And I'm sorry, not sorry for labeling them

1. IMP ANNOUNCEMENT

I want to let you know when I made the decision to launch @StrikePac & directly get into electioneering I realized I wasn't going to continue issuing "race ratings" & "forecasts" each cycle- OBV that's a conflict of interest!

The hostility & sexism of

2. that world, I have to be honest, makes it very easy to walk away- the misogyny in the top tier of the election analysis community outside of @Center4Politics folks who are awesome & also more accurate than anyone else is intolerable. I'll still analyze politics, political

3. events, issue commentary, write articles, run the pod, go on TV, and generally succeed in ways that drive those men nuts but no, I won't be putting out ratings or "forecasts" anymore. Now, lots of people are asking me "what's going to happen in 2022?" The Midterm Effect, the

4. the long standing pattern of the president's party losing seats in the Midterm happens virtually every single cycle. I believe there are 2 recent exceptions: post-9/11 in the 2022 midterms and 1998 post-Lewinski gate. What I'm trying to do in building @StrikePac is completely

5. redesign/overhaul/modernize & reshape the way that Dems currently approach electioneering. I want to build a new organization with the funds capable of coming into cycle's like VA's 2021 cycle and the 2022 midterm cycle and start to deploy these new methodologies into the

THE TRUMP CARD

by an Anonymous Patriot

Bombshell My Friends💣

You probably will want to read this all.

Right now Trump is sitting on a stack of Trump cards that he's just waiting to lay down like a Royal Flush.

He has court cases still pending that will go to SCOTUS and ...

1. What @WillieGeist is trying to get across to @NikemaWilliams on @Morning_Joe is that the GOP is nationalizing their message & making their message high stakes, tapping into voters anger at Trump's loss to get them to vote in a Jan. run-off & that Ds NEED TO DO THE SAME. Its

2. about giving Trump power- its about giving low-info voters, who are the bulk of the electorate motivation to cast ballots in the run-off. This is WHY turnout plummets in these things on the D side- the GOP keeps their messaging on stakes (control of the senate to fend off

3. socialism) while Ds go off into policy. That is a losing strategy. It just lost them nearly a dozen House seats & the chance to cut into partisan gerrymandering by flipping 4 state houses. They can't make that mistake here bc control of senate is everything here. If Ds have it

4. Biden can get some policy done- if Ds don't, the GOP will block everything. Biden will be a lame duck from day 1. So the message should be "hey voter, did you know you have a super vote? That's right, with your one vote, you can elect 2 senators that will give Ds control of

5. senate & with it REAL police reform. With it, Dreamers not getting deported to countries they've even been to- potentially to die from lack of insulin. With it, the power to save the pre-existing conditions coverage for millions of Americans, including Nicu babies who'd in

NEW: Before he left office, Trump filed his final financial disclosures with @OfficeGovEthics. I’ve had a read through them. The income he is claiming in respect of his Scottish resorts is entirely divorced from the reality set out in black in white in his UK accounts. Thread 👇

Firstly, Trump lists his income from ‘golf related revenue’ at Turnberry as $9.8m. Which is interesting, given the latest UK accounts for Turnberry's parent company registered losses of £2.3m ($3.1m) for the 12 months to 31 Dec 2019.

Even the turnover in the UK accounts - listed as £19.6m ($26.8m) is a country mile off that income figure listed in Trump's OGE filings. Comparing like for like, even accounting for that weird 'golf related revenue' descriptor, it's not even close.

If you drill down in more detail, and subtract the administrative expenses at Turnberry's parent firm from its turnover in order to get closer to whatever that 'income' figure entails, the number is still £12.5m ($17.2m).

And if you go deeper, and account for the gains the company made in foreign exchanges, and deduct depreciation and amortisation costs, the figure is £9.9m ($13.6m). Still a way off the OGE number.

@Nick_Carmody @NBCNews @BandyXLee1 @Narcopath_UK @narceducator The same tactics used with Trump were used with Hitler by the Evangelicals to set up someone who exhibits qualities as an AntiChrist into a role of a Saint but this time targetting Muslims as Killers of Americans & still using gay people as abomination of God to con churches...1/

@NBCNews @BandyXLee1 @Narcopath_UK @narceducator This was by design and process that developed over 60 years of psychological influencing through a collaboration of the entertainment world, religious broadcasts, oil/gas loyalists who bastardized the US Constitution, and #KochNetwork #DarkMoney orgs connected to DeVos...2/

@NBCNews @BandyXLee1 @Narcopath_UK @narceducator Judeo-Christian America never existed. 1A was designed to removed Roman Catholic Church of England hold over the newly formed US Government. It demands zero influence of religion over law or government decisions. The Virginia Baptist insisted on it w/ Thomas Jefferson...2/

@NBCNews @BandyXLee1 @Narcopath_UK @narceducator Judeo-Christian is coined from Nitzche's book "The AntiChrist" that means Jews converting to Christianity. It is used in the context we see today to tie in a Jewish Jesus into the Torah so that the strict rules of the Torah are elevated to a Christian philosophy. A paradox...4/

@NBCNews @BandyXLee1 @Narcopath_UK @narceducator It is a paradox because Jesus was a rebel Jew. He defied the teachings of the Torah which pissed off the Pharisees - Jewish religious leaders. He elevated poor & people society condemned to same level as leaders. He is nothing like what we see today as American Christianity...5/