A friend posted a photo of Woodstock from overhead as a demonstration of what 400,000 people look like. Its a huge number...hard to visualize.

I've been using citites.

While watching the GameStop stuff has been mildly hilarious (I mean who doesn't like watching the financial elite squirm?) it's pretty clear that a whole bunch of folk have convinced themselves this is ACTUALLY some kind of revolutionary activity. It isn't. 1/

Sure, it's highlighted yet another way in which the bastards profiteer but that's about it, stick it on the pile with the fifty other pro tips to keep the poor, well poor... It's todays banter and tho a few folks might have egg on their faces, literally nothing will happen. 2/

GameStop's three largest shareholders have earned £1.5bn+ during this. They sit at the top of some 200 institutions which are rolling. Meanwhile the ersatz rebels are now watching the bubble, realising there is profit to be made and having a wibble. 3/

No doubt some TRULY believe they are taking part in some kind of revolution but frankly it's utterly absurd and the vast majority are in it for the lulz and to cash in quick.

I'm sorry to tell you this, but you don't own GameStop.

4/

The reality is, the scale of the economic disparity and corruption is simply vast. Billionaires loosing a few millions means nothing. They buy one less yacht and you continue to live meal to meal.

The "Free Market" changes a few systems and the abuse continues. 5/

In my 20 years of trading I have noticed this cycle play out again and again with traders that "make it":

1. Overconfidently reach for returns
2. Get humbled by the market
3. Simplify + concentrate on clear, high probability edges.

1/n

Nearly everyone starts with a lack of respect for how hard it is to consistently make money trading.

That leads them to pass over high-probability sources of returns in favor of more marginal ideas.

Or they overcomplicate the trading of a good edge.

2/n

Here's an example...

It is 2015. You look at a simple strategy.

You hold an equal dollar exposure to:
- Cap Weighted US Stocks (VTI)
- 20+ Yr US Treasury Bonds (TLT)
- Gold (GLD)

And rebalance each month.

(I've extended back a bit with mutual fund prices.)

3/n

It made money consistently with a few blips.

You'd have 4x your money from 1997 to 2015.

It makes sense. It's harnessing two big sources of risk premia (equity + duration).

It diversifies across 3 macro assets that tend to outperform in different econ environments

4/n

But, naturally, you turn your mind to how you could do better...

And here is where it gets dangerous!

There are good ways to try to "do better", and there are bad ways to try to "do better".

5/n

Traders often overlook the SHORT STRADDLE due to its simplicity.

It remains the TOP strategy to make money when the market is not trending.

Here's how you can make money using only the short straddle
in various market conditions

⬇️ A comprehensive thread🧵

A short straddle is the most basic neutral options strategy.

Where a call option and a put option are sold at the same strike price.

Max profit = Total premium received ( call leg + put leg )

Max risk = Unlimited

(using SLs would be wise)

Upper breakeven = Strike price + Total Premium received

Lower breakeven = Strike price - Total Premium received

Essentially short straddles are initiated when the trader is confident about the market staying in a certain range (between the breakevens of the straddle)

Long-term short straddles usually require fewer adjustments since the range is wide.

Since unlimited loss is a component of the strategy, the trader has to adjust the strategy to increase profit/ mitigating risk

An option buyer made Rs. 58 lacs from Rs. 2 lac capital in a span of just one month (March 2020 COVID crash).

He is none other than Mr. Subasish Pani.

THREAD: 11 things you must know to become an option buyer.

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

•Don't get carried away with the kind of return that Mr. Pani made in such a short period of time.

•This requires a high level of skill, and discipline in terms of which strike to choose, which time to trade, and which days to trade.

•It also comes with higher drawdown.

1/ Screen Time:

• Indian markets function from 9:15-15:30.

• Dividing this time zone into 3 sub parts:
- 9:15 to 10:30: trending market
- 10:30 to 13:30: for retracement
- 13:30 to 3:30: trending

2/ Focus on momentum:

• Option buyers make money when the momentum is quick.

• However if the market remain sideways for few days then the option starts to lose its value.

• This is because theta decay works against option buyers.

3/ Option buyers need momentum to make money:

• Hence focus on the 1st & 2nd time zone where the markets are trending.

• Avoid taking trades between 10:30am till 13:30.

• Special focus on Wednesday & Thursday as premiums are low and if you can catch momentum then good R/R.