BC TRADING
Saved by @vsamk

A Thread on~ O V E R T R A D I N G

Sitting and observing the numbers flicker on the screen might be very exciting.

 But have you ever felt like you might've done better? Or you're just too tired of waiting that you punch an order right in?

That's a Bad Idea.

So, Let's understand the reasons behind it and try to find a way out.
1. Not having a trading plan makes you clueless.
Your impulses start to take control of you.
2. Having a trading plan; But still taking impulsive/ random trades.
Because of adrenaline rush or gambling instinct.
3. Revenge trading
When you try to force a trade in order to recover from a previous loss.
4. Increasing the Overall capital suddenly followed by poor position sizing.
5. Social media influence
Copying someone else's trades without understanding the logic.
6. Competing with others on Social Media
Getting influenced by MTM screenshots.
7. Feeling euphoric after great winning streak.
Extreme urge to give it all back to the market.
8. Not maintaining a Trading journal.
9. Boredom and not having any trading partner.
10. Tendency to self sabotage for reasons & failures outside of the trading arena.
11. Just for adventure and fun.
Now the question is: How to refrain ourselves from Over Trading?

1. Define your Trading criteria and wait for the right setup.
Do not chase the price.
2. Treat Trading as a serious business.
3. Limit the number of trades per day.
4. Don’t let inefficient screen time and boredom enter your trading.
5. Understand the premise of your system and know when to stay out.
To conclude, These are the greatest skills you can have as a trader and also the hardest to actually get a hand on.

Preach Persistence.

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#SBILIFE Weekly

Butterfly T1 and T2 active on charts.
For T1; Target at Point D [1165] where it might take a toll as it's the PRZ.

For T2 to pick up pace; A strong weekly close above 1165 would be needed for the target of 1340.

#StockMarket #StocksToWatch
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#COPPER
The setup is bullish till Point D [795]; Post that a reversal might be in place.

Invalidation level: Point B [741.85]

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Gurleen
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#KOTAKBANK Update
Midway resistances held up strong.

Once these are breached, It is poised for more towards 1950 followed by 2000.

#StockMarket #StocksInFocus https://t.co/kswtnvjQM8
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Gurleen
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@GurleenKaur_19
#ULTRACEM Updated chart

Seems like another retest along with a follow through move. Even the support at 6100 has been taken out.

In swing support placed at 5590 followed by 4960.

#StockMarket #StocksToWatch https://t.co/bekQfLgWEK
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Gurleen
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@GurleenKaur_19
TVSMOTOR

The price has now reached Point D and looks ready to take a dive from here.

Avoid fresh longs here. https://t.co/JpzNfzNRW1
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THE TRADER'S EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES

Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, doing something random

At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market's behavior is not random,yet can't produce consistent profits

Thread 🧵


What casino owners ,professional traders know is that probable outcomes can also produce consistent results if you " Have an edge" and trade on a large enough sample size.

The best traders treat trading like a numbers game.

1. To illustrate, let's look at the game of blackjack-


In blackjack, the casinos have approximately a 4.5-percent edge over the player.

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At the end of the day, week, month, or year, the casino always ends up with approximately 4.5 percent of the total amount wagered.

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In my 20 years of trading I have noticed this cycle play out again and again with traders that "make it":

1. Overconfidently reach for returns
2. Get humbled by the market
3. Simplify + concentrate on clear, high probability edges.

1/n

Nearly everyone starts with a lack of respect for how hard it is to consistently make money trading.

That leads them to pass over high-probability sources of returns in favor of more marginal ideas.

Or they overcomplicate the trading of a good edge.

2/n

Here's an example...

It is 2015. You look at a simple strategy.

You hold an equal dollar exposure to:
- Cap Weighted US Stocks (VTI)
- 20+ Yr US Treasury Bonds (TLT)
- Gold (GLD)

And rebalance each month.

(I've extended back a bit with mutual fund prices.)

3/n


It made money consistently with a few blips.

You'd have 4x your money from 1997 to 2015.

It makes sense. It's harnessing two big sources of risk premia (equity + duration).

It diversifies across 3 macro assets that tend to outperform in different econ environments

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But, naturally, you turn your mind to how you could do better...

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There are good ways to try to "do better", and there are bad ways to try to "do better".

5/n
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CPaaS growing at 40%


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I analyzed 25+ years of #Nifty data to better understand bear markets 🐻

Why?

Given the recent market sell-off and bearish stance of market participants, history and data is your best guide to prepare if we're headed for a bear market.

Thread with findings below 🧵👇
1/n


But first, do you know the definition of a bear market?

When any index falls 20% or more from it's all time high, it is termed to be in a #bearmarket 🐻

How do you calculate length of a bear market? The time duration in days from previous all-time high to market bottom.

2/n


🇮🇳 Nifty last 25 years (1997-2022*)

Number of Bear Markets = 8

Average drawdown % = -38.5%

Average bear market duration = 246 days (8 m)

Key takeaway - Bear markets occur every ~3 years and take on average 8 months to bottom

3/n


1997 and 2006 saw the fastest bear markets with Nifty correcting 20-30% in just ~1 month.

Unbelievably, 1997 had 2 bear markets! Just imagine suffering 20% drawdowns twice in a few months!

Mar 2020 Covid crash was the 3rd fastest and 3rd worst bear market.

4/n


Okay, how should we define Bear Market Recovery?

The no of days from market bottom to a new all-time high.

Sadly, bear markets take time to recover.

Almost double the time to recover to a new ATH compared to the time to form a bottom.

Avg recovery duration – 495 days

5/n
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This incredible book focuses on understanding why periods of recessions & growth occur frequently wearing lenses of all mkt participants-the economists, the investors & the regulators.

(1/n)


The book tries to explain the human tendency of extrapolating the recent past and the imbalance in defining risk at the time of bear & bull markets. It is this tendency that drives booms & busts.

Here are the Important learnings from the book: 👇

(2/n)

1. Every Asset class goes through a cycle - Up & Down this book teaches why such Up & down occur how to spot them & how investors can improve their returns.

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How to sell option?
Here let me explain through simple math.
Say BN at 30000
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If move will not come than both will decrease gradually.

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