1/ I'm a huge fan of checklists

I use them every day to help me find great investments

Want to create your own investment checklist?

Here are some great resources to help you get started

⬇️

My inflation strategy:

Own businesses with recession-proof demand and pricing power

1/ Mission Statements 🧵

I used to think mission statements were just corporate fluff

False words that companies created for HR reasons

I've slowly changed my mind about them

They are THE BEST stakeholder alignment & decision-making tool ever

EVER!

Need convincing? ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️

2/ What is a mission statement?

At its core, a mission statement should answer this question:

*****Why does the company exist?*****

A profound question that is easy to overlook!

3/ When used properly

Mission Statements should guide ALL of the actions of the organization

It's like a company's North Star

If an activity doesn’t advance the mission,

it should be discarded!

If an activity does advance the mission,

it should be adopted!

4/ A Mission and a Vision statement are different

Mission: WHY the company exists

Vision: What the company/world looks like if the company is successful

Both important, but they are NOT interchangeable

5/ The reason I used to think mission statements didn't matter

is because the vast majority of companies/CEOs

don't believe they matter!

Most companies SUCK at creating & communicating them!

Why should employees/shareholders care about a mission

if the company/CEO doesn't?

1/ How to review quarterly earnings 🧵

A step by step guide using $DXCM as an example

⬇️

2/ The BIG question: Is the thesis on track❓

Other question:

❓Is revenue growing?
❓Are margins stable/expanding?
❓Profits?
❓Balance sheet?
❓New opportunities?
❓New threats?

3/ I open 4 browser tabs

Tab 1 - Current company earnings report / shareholder letter

Tab 2 - Previous company earnings report / shareholder letter (check guidance)

Tab 3 - Analyst estimates

Tab 4 - Call Transcript

4/ Tabs 1 & 2 - Find the current & previous earnings report

I search "Dexcom Investor Relations"

I click on "press release"

Open the newest quarterly earnings report and last quarter

It can also be a shareholder letter/presentation

5/ Tab 3 - Find the quarterly analyst estimates

Open up $DXCM in yahoo finance

The "news" section usually has a link to reports on whether the company beat/met estimates

The "analysis" tab is a good source, but sometimes it updates to the next quarter too quickly

My 🔟 Biggest Investing Mistakes 🧵

1⃣Only looking at the share price

I bought penny stocks at the start

My logic: 100 shares of $1 stock > 1 share of $100 stock

WRONG!

The price of 1 share is meaningless!

What matters is how great the company is!

2⃣Only looking at dividend yield

I bought stocks with 10%+ yields

My logic: 10% yield > 1% yield

WRONG!

The dividend got cut and the share price dropped -- a double-whammy!

A high yield is Wall Street's way of saying "this yield is not sustainable, watch out"

3⃣Selling a great stock early

I bought $DXCM in 2007 for ~$6

I sold it 1 month later after a 15% gain

Current price: $412.58

I was in a rush to take profits, so I missed out on HUGE upside

If the opportunity is huge, hold!

4⃣Not buying a great stock due to valuation

I've made this mistake over and over again

I didn't buy $ZM at $80 because the valuation was "insane"

Current price: $455

If you like everything about the company except the valuation, but some

Even if it's just a little bit

I asked, “What book do you re-read the most?”

I received 441 replies

Here are 20 books that should be read again and again:

1/

7 Habits of Highly Effective People

by Steven Covey

2/

A Short History of Nearly Everything

by Bill Bryson

3/

As A Man Thinketh

by James Allen

4/

Atomic Habits

by @JamesClear

A thread on SCALING IN - OUT METHOD -

What is scaling in - out?

1. Scaling in is adding on to the positions when they move in our favor (Pyramiding).

2. Scaling - out is exiting the portion of the position when the trade moves in our favor.

I have explained about pyramiding in previous tweets.

// Why use scaling out instead of exiting all position at once ?

When you are using ALL - out method where you exit positions at once, mostly you use wider Trail SL as you want to capture big moves and exit all when trail sl hits.

The problem with this method is that either you make too big or many times your medium size winners turns out to become Scratch trades.

So, when we use the scaling out method, we are trying to capture most of our medium size trades , so that they do not turn into scratch trades.

// How to use scaling out method -

Say we have to got a signal to enter in a trade, and we have to buy 1200 qty according to our Position sizing.

So, we have to divide this 1200 qty into parts, how much? It depends on you.

We can divide into 3 parts, each part 400 qty.

1/ How to review quarterly earnings 🧵

A step by step guide using $DXCM as an example

⬇️

2/ The BIG question: Is the thesis on track❓

Other question:

❓Is revenue growing?
❓Are margins stable/expanding?
❓Profits?
❓Balance sheet?
❓New opportunities?
❓New threats?

3/ I open 4 browser tabs

Tab 1 - Current company earnings report / shareholder letter

Tab 2 - Previous company earnings report / shareholder letter (check guidance)

Tab 3 - Analyst estimates

Tab 4 - Call Transcript

4/ Tabs 1 & 2 - Find the current & previous earnings report

I search "Dexcom Investor Relations"

I click on "press release"

Open the newest quarterly earnings report and last quarter

It can also be a shareholder letter/presentation

5/ Tab 3 - Find the quarterly analyst estimates

Open up $DXCM in yahoo finance

The "news" section usually has a link to reports on whether the company beat/met estimates

The "analysis" tab is a good source, but sometimes it updates to the next quarter too quickly

1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand Geometric Expectations.

2/

Imagine we have an investment opportunity.

If the investment goes well, we get to double our money.

But if it goes badly, we'll end up losing three fourths of it.

There's a 50/50 chance of either outcome.

The question: is this a good bet or not?

3/

A simple way to approach this question is to calculate the bet's "expectation".

For every $1 we bet, there are 2 possibilities:

1. The lucky case, where we double our money and end up with $2, and

2. The unlucky case, where we lose (3/4)'th to end up with just $0.25.

4/

Each of these outcomes is equally likely.

So, on *average*, every $1 we put in turns into ($2 + $0.25)/2 = $1.125.

This is a *positive* 12.5% return.

Such bets are called *positive expectation* bets. On average, we expect to *make* (rather than *lose*) money on them.

5/

Suppose we could take many turns betting at these odds.

In any one turn, we could of course lose money.

But because our bet has positive expectation, *over time* we expect to make money.

As a former professional poker player, I'm very clear about the importance of psychology in investing/trading.

You can have a very solid strategy, but if the mental aspect fails, everything fails, no matter how good you are.

Thread 👇

In this thread I will briefly describe the most important aspects of trading psychology, and give some simple tips to try to improve them.

It's good to always be aware of these aspects, to be able to detect them and act in time.

1) FEAR

This is one of the most important. It can make you get out of a position at the wrong time.

One of the main reasons you can have fear is because you are putting more at risk than you are willing to lose.

Tip: reduce the size of your position until you are comfortable.

2) GREED

Greed can be even worse than fear. It leads you to be overpositioned and to destroy your average entry.

Tip: learn to conform to what you have. Practice gratitude for everything that comes your way. Remember that the most important thing is to stay in the game.

3) TILT

This is well known in poker. There are many reasons why tilt can appear (downswings, injustice, mistakes...)

Tilt takes you away from your perfect strategy. From your A game.

After a losing streak you may think that the market is being unfair to you.

An option buyer made Rs. 58 lacs from Rs. 2 lac capital in a span of just one month (March 2020 COVID crash).

He is none other than Mr. Subasish Pani.

THREAD: 11 things you must know to become an option buyer.

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

•Don't get carried away with the kind of return that Mr. Pani made in such a short period of time.

•This requires a high level of skill, and discipline in terms of which strike to choose, which time to trade, and which days to trade.

•It also comes with higher drawdown.

1/ Screen Time:

• Indian markets function from 9:15-15:30.

• Dividing this time zone into 3 sub parts:
- 9:15 to 10:30: trending market
- 10:30 to 13:30: for retracement
- 13:30 to 3:30: trending

2/ Focus on momentum:

• Option buyers make money when the momentum is quick.

• However if the market remain sideways for few days then the option starts to lose its value.

• This is because theta decay works against option buyers.

3/ Option buyers need momentum to make money:

• Hence focus on the 1st & 2nd time zone where the markets are trending.

• Avoid taking trades between 10:30am till 13:30.

• Special focus on Wednesday & Thursday as premiums are low and if you can catch momentum then good R/R.