So Chamath has been making a lot of noise attacking Robinhood and implying there's a conspiracy because it sells retail transaction data (payment for order flow) to Ken Griffin's Citadel.

He wants you use his platform sofi, but it turns out, they literally do the same thing? 1/n

Overthinking - The art of creating problems which weren't even there.

Thread on How Over-analysis leads to decision Paralysis-

What is Analysis paralysis?

In simple terms, analysis paralysis is a person's tendency to over-analyze or over-think upon a decision to such an extent that he/she fails to make a choice resulting in a paralyzed state of inaction.

How a retail trader trades-

A trader named Rahul, He know all the basics of markets, He also has made a system which gives signals on nifty, he has also encorporated good Risk management and Position sizing into his system.

One day he gets a signal to buy Nifty at 13500 with stop at 13450, he wanted to take the trade, but he wanted to get sure that the trade he has take should be a winner.

So he says just let me check the RSI if its above this level I will buy , he checks it and it was above his

level, then again he wants to check another indicator named MACD, he wanted to get sure man, Now he do the most intelligent thing to get sure he gets right.

He goes to twitter and ask his twitter Friend Trader knight he ask him that should I buy nifty at 13500,

CHEAT-SHEET

Multiple Confirmation short.

A Short Entry that we shared in 2020.

Study it point wise.

1. Bearish Candle type and lowering of volume on Price rise.

2. OBV divergence.

3. Accumulation with Bearish candles and Volume increase on Price decrease.

STUDY IT!

Explanation

1. When price increases with a decreasing volume, it's bearish.

2. OBV, On Balance Volume should be correlated with price.
If price increases without similar increase in OBV, it's bearish.

3. During consolidation, if the volume increases during dumps, it's bearish

So..had a great conversation last night with older investment types, old friends whom I traded with/against and managed money against or for. Age diff from me is > 10+ years so the takes were interesting but the common theme was a little disturbing (depends on your view)

Was looking at the landscape of the world & quite concerned where we are (I do not share your optimism for a shinny happy future). I am a Bond guy + Cycles & my view approach is ALWAYS what is the worst that can happen (that is how I was taught to trade & manage money) As a Bond

Money manager you never every want to apologize for a negative year, most people don't understand bonds can lose lots and lots and lots of money. So my view on life is always negative & fuck you approach.

The others are similar but have more equity exposure and FX, one other is really good via commodities so the conversation was from a top down look with some bottom up approaches. So.....after looking at the notes of the great conversation this is how it looked:

basically the world changed 2007/2008 especially North America. The GFC set in motion financial engineering games and here we are. The issues pre this (2000 to 2007) set ALL this up so lots of blame to go around but to pin point certain things the real problems started with QE &

Traders often overlook the SHORT STRADDLE due to its simplicity.

It remains the TOP strategy to make money when the market is not trending.

Here's how you can make money using only the short straddle
in various market conditions

⬇️ A comprehensive thread🧵

A short straddle is the most basic neutral options strategy.

Where a call option and a put option are sold at the same strike price.

Max profit = Total premium received ( call leg + put leg )

Max risk = Unlimited

(using SLs would be wise)

Upper breakeven = Strike price + Total Premium received

Lower breakeven = Strike price - Total Premium received

Essentially short straddles are initiated when the trader is confident about the market staying in a certain range (between the breakevens of the straddle)

Long-term short straddles usually require fewer adjustments since the range is wide.

Since unlimited loss is a component of the strategy, the trader has to adjust the strategy to increase profit/ mitigating risk