"Start your Trading day with a fresh and empty mind."

Ever faced stress and strong emotions after having loss day and under-performance for a long time after that?

Thread on Emotion and how to control them with help of trading journal

"90% of the traders lose money, But do they lose it all the time?"

Most of them do make money, its just that they give it all back.

Lets analyze why and how a trader makes and loses money
[Thread]:

Below is the equity curve which is most traders dream.

This is equity curve of an average trader:

Most traders do make money, but they give it back to the markets .

Because of trading errors.

What are trading errors?

Trading errors are those errors which happen because of wrong Position sizing, Leverage , etc.

I am not making this up, check your P&L, 90 % of your losses would have come from less then 10% trades.

Most of these happen because of No knowledge, No plan, bad position sizing .

Now, we know what's the problem, lets talk about the solution.

1. Learn the Basics first-

If you don’t get the basics clear then how can you make money?

Learn How to use Support and resistances
Learn How to use trend lines
Learn about trend, it will solve 90% of your problem

A thread on Trend-lines

// What are trend-lines?

Trend-lines are support and resistance lines which are formed by connecting Important swing points.

The beauty of using them is that We can use them when stock is not Respecting the Horizontal S&R zones, they can indicate us when the trend may change.

// Things To consider while Making trendlines?

• A trendline formed by using 3 Major-Swing points is a potential trendline, But we will also use 2 points to form a trendline, will discuss how, as you read further.

• Trendline can be formed by two ways-

1. Wicks-

In this method we only connect the wicks to make a trendline, this is a precise way of making a trendline.

// Why only connect the wicks?

There are two type of levels - Precise and Less precise (Which we call zones).

So what we are doing is by only connecting the wicks we are making a precise level where we can take trades, either Mean reversion or Breakout trades.

Examples-

Trailing Stop loss.

The most underrated yet most important tool in trading.

When tops are formed , two things happen The public is buying and the big boys are selling, and vice-versa when bottoms are formed.

In simple words Volume climax is the last "AHA" movement for the public before the stock make a top or bottom.

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What is Volume climax?

• Volume climax appears at the extreme of a trend, or when top or bottoms are formed.

• Most of the time volume climax appears when breakouts happens after a long extending move, and then fails to hold at higher levels.

• In this, at time of breakout we see big volumes (atleast 2-3X more then normal volume) coming in stock when the stock is already extended.

• More volume is not always good, though retail traders doesn’t distinguish between them.

• After the Volume climax we may see a top/bottom or at-least the trend becomes sideways.

• The best setups are those in which we see full reversal candles with big range.

Example of volume climax-

1. The stock was in Uptrend, And has give a quite good run , Stock was giving a big move as you can see in last 2 candles, they were super extended.

2. But at the top candle, the bulls lost the control and the stock closes with a weak candle,

THE TRADER'S EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES

Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, doing something random

At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market's behavior is not random,yet can't produce consistent profits

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What casino owners ,professional traders know is that probable outcomes can also produce consistent results if you " Have an edge" and trade on a large enough sample size.

The best traders treat trading like a numbers game.

1. To illustrate, let's look at the game of blackjack-

In blackjack, the casinos have approximately a 4.5-percent edge over the player.

This means that casinos will make profit over a large enough sample size, even after several winning streaks and big profits of many players.

At the end of the day, week, month, or year, the casino always ends up with approximately 4.5 percent of the total amount wagered.

That 4.5 percent might not sound like a lot, but let's put it in perspective.

Suppose a total of $100 million dollars is wagered collectively at all of a casino's blackjack tables over the course of a year. The casino will net $4.5 million.

What casino owners and pro traders understand about the nature of probabilities is that each individual hand played

As a former professional poker player, I'm very clear about the importance of psychology in investing/trading.

You can have a very solid strategy, but if the mental aspect fails, everything fails, no matter how good you are.

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In this thread I will briefly describe the most important aspects of trading psychology, and give some simple tips to try to improve them.

It's good to always be aware of these aspects, to be able to detect them and act in time.

1) FEAR

This is one of the most important. It can make you get out of a position at the wrong time.

One of the main reasons you can have fear is because you are putting more at risk than you are willing to lose.

Tip: reduce the size of your position until you are comfortable.

2) GREED

Greed can be even worse than fear. It leads you to be overpositioned and to destroy your average entry.

Tip: learn to conform to what you have. Practice gratitude for everything that comes your way. Remember that the most important thing is to stay in the game.

3) TILT

This is well known in poker. There are many reasons why tilt can appear (downswings, injustice, mistakes...)

Tilt takes you away from your perfect strategy. From your A game.

After a losing streak you may think that the market is being unfair to you.

William's Alligator is probably the most underrated indicator in moving average category.

Alligator follows the premise that market is sideways for 70% of the time and trending only 30% of the time.

This is where William's Alligator can be a great tool for traders.

Why William's Alligator can be a great tool for traders?

It can identify Bullish, Bearish and Sideways market pretty easily. Problem is, traders don't know how to use it effectively. Alligator has three lines:

1. Lips - Fastest Line
2. Teeth
3. Jaws - Slowest Line

Book Interpretation is when Lips Crosses above Jaws, it's a buying opportunity and when below its a shorting opportunity. And when three lines are crisscrossing, instrument is sideways.

BUT this does not make it a tradeable indicator in practice. Here is what should be done.

Firstly, when all the Alligator lines are moving up or down and are widening, this phase is called "Alligator eating with its mouth wide open". When the lines are crisscrossing, this indicates the alligator is sated.

Now, how to use it? with Basic TA and Indicator like MACD

Rules to remember:
1. As long as price is above Alligator, BANKNIFTY is bullish.
2. As long as MACD is trading above 0 line, BANKNIFTY is bullish.
3. Horizontal Lines are the only S&R.
4. CONGESTION is followed by TREND is followed by CONGESTION.

This is the most important concept which made me great money in 2022.

This is the skill which is GUARANTEED to make you a better trader

Banknifty moves in 2 phases.

1: Consolidation
2: Trends

An understanding of both of these phases will take your trading to the next level.

Let's start with consolidation phase

It looks like this when Banknifty is stuck inside a range.

This is phase when you shouldn't be taking directional trades.

As market is mostly choppy and is good for mean reversion scalpers.

An option seller can initiate neutral strategies under such an environment.

Trending phase will look something like this

The price action is quick and furious at this time.

As you can see after a consolidation there is a strong breakdown.