I hate to correct @elonmusk, but his assertion that it takes 20 years to replace the vehicle fleet is wrong. This thread tries to describe why. 1/

His 20 year replacement timeline is based in the normal rate of car manufacturing/car retirering and total global fleet size. Both of these will be disrupted 2/
Whilst I don't expect total car manufacturing rate to increase much, with the introduction of cheap autonomous taxis networks, the number of cars being retired will increase very fast especially with people living with urban settings where these networks will become ubiquitous 3/
And in the more rural / commuter belt 2 car families will become 1 autonomous car families.
This will drasticaly decrease the total size of the global car fleet as the rate of cars retirering will be at least twice the size of the cars being retired 4/
As time progresses, legislation increasing taxes on polluting cars (ICE) and restrictions on where those cars can travel to will make them increasingly stranded/decreasing value assets on a household and further increase the retirering rate of ICE vehicles 5/
Finaly, when 100% of cars being manufactured are electric, with every passing year, the economics of gas pumps become unviable and these start to close/being repurposed. As fuel stations close they scarcity will mirror today's pain points of lack of charging infrastructure 6/
And this again puts further pressure on ICE owners that will start retirering their cars and a faster rate.
This becomes a feedback loop what will both decrease the vehicle fleet and collapse the value of ICE cars. 7/
This means that the total fleet refresh will not take 20 years as it occurs today. 8/
I expect that from the year when the majority of cars sold are EV the transition will take 10 years & we'll end up will a smaller fleet (average of less that 1 car per household) & where the large majority of miles driven per year will be done by autonomous taxis end/
@threadreaderapp unroll

More from Tech

I could create an entire twitter feed of things Facebook has tried to cover up since 2015. Where do you want to start, Mark and Sheryl? https://t.co/1trgupQEH9


Ok, here. Just one of the 236 mentions of Facebook in the under read but incredibly important interim report from Parliament. ht @CommonsCMS
https://t.co/gfhHCrOLeU


Let’s do another, this one to Senate Intel. Question: “Were you or CEO Mark Zuckerberg aware of the hiring of Joseph Chancellor?"
Answer "Facebook has over 30,000 employees. Senior management does not participate in day-today hiring decisions."


Or to @CommonsCMS: Question: "When did Mark Zuckerberg know about Cambridge Analytica?"
Answer: "He did not become aware of allegations CA may not have deleted data about FB users obtained through Dr. Kogan's app until March of 2018, when
these issues were raised in the media."


If you prefer visuals, watch this short clip after @IanCLucas rightly expresses concern about a Facebook exec failing to disclose info.
So we had to develop technologies like this to barely manage control over limited areas in Iraq's few urban centers. Only ~8 in 100 Iraqi adults owns a personal vehicle. That rate is > 1 car/adult in America yet I have never seen any doctrine paper or work of fiction address this


We've seen and struggled in civil conflicts with instant, local, universal, distributed communications (cell phone era, basically every conflict since 2000). We've seen and struggled in conflicts with instant, global, universal distributed communications (everything since 2011).

The world's most overfunded military and glow in the dark agencies struggle and largely fail to contain conflicts where fhe vast, vast majority of people are locked into a ~5mi radius of their home.

How can they possibly contain a conflict in a nation with universal car ownership and the most developed road network in the world? The average car can travel over 400 miles on one tank of gas, how can you contain the potential of that kind of mobility?

I think that's partially why the system was so freaked out by 1/6. Yes, most of it is histrionics but you don't decide to indefinitely turn your capital into the Baghdad Green Zone with fortifications and 25k troops over histrionics alone.

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