BC SUGAR
Saved by @AnmolNarula11

Sugar Industry Insights (Feb 25, 2020)
Last few years sugar industry has been a beneficiary of government largesse. Sugar cycle turned in 2015. Post that there has been surplus production.

 Government has helped the industry by various incentives like export subsidy, ethanol blending, allowing cane juice to ethanol conversion, msp, etc. UP and Maharashtra are the 2 major states in sugarcane plantations.
The 2 largest players in the world are Brazil and India. In Brazil sugarcane is used for ethanol a lot lot more than in India. Brazil is way ahead of any country in ethanol from cane.
US is the largest producer of ethanol in the world followed by Brazil. US uses mainly corn for making ethanol.
Indian sugar scenario: Sugar still constitutes 85% of revenue in sugar companies. So, essentially it has to do well for sugar companies to be profitable. We have had record production in last couple of years. Sugar opening stock at end of last sugar year was 14.5 mt.
Indian consumption is 25-26mt. This year production will be 26-27 mt. Some of the surplus will be removed due to export (which the government is giving subsidy for). Some due to diversion to ethanol, where government has been a big enabler and provided good prices.
I expect this year to end at inventory of 9.5-10 mt. Expectations of a good crop for next year is again high due to reservoirs being full.

We have to understand that sugar story depends on government help a lot. It does remain a political commodity.
The risks to sugar story are:

1)High production next year
2)Current year production above the industry expectation of 26 mt (for UP one can get data as most are listed, but for Mah it is difficult as there are many private players and co-operatives)
3)Government doesn’t support by the way of export subsidy as expected by the industry
4)Crude falls, to let’s say, 40-50$. The whole ethanol story becomes very difficult. Brazil also starts diverting cane to sugar instead of ethanol
5)Government increases price of sugarcane, as UP elections will be in 2022
6)Government removes MSP
My view: One should not change narrative of investment reasons post entering the sector/stock. If you have invested because of sugar cycle, stay invested or exit, due to that reason only. If sugar doesn’t do well, I don’t think other ancillaries can save the pain.
Best time to enter sugar was in 2015 when cycle turn was evident. That’s when you make big returns. I got a 7x return in next 18 months. Post that in mid-cycle it has always been trading calls, where you are playing for percentage returns.
Remember: When downcycle turns into upcycle you make “X” returns, in mid-cycle you make “%age” returns.

More from Jiten Parmar

Jiten Parmar
Jiten Parmar
@jitenkparmar
EV/tonne of the mentioned companies currently

Anjani - 100
Deccan Cem - 40
KCP - 44 (will be lower if value to other biz given)
NCL - 61 (has boards biz too)
Sagar - 59
CEMENT
Jiten Parmar
Jiten Parmar
@jitenkparmar
There is no doubt that many new age businesses will do fantastically well for quiet a while.

But, will they turn out to be good stocks, is up for debate.

One needs to see how much of the growth has already been built up in the current price.

Risk-reward 🤔
VALUATION
Advertisement
Jiten Parmar
Jiten Parmar
@jitenkparmar
A recently listed IPO (Sep 21). Promoter did OFS at X alongwith fresh issue. Made record for highest subscription ever. Company currently at more than 5X of OFS price.

Let's glance a bit on Financials.
1/2

Mcap - 3500 cr
Company does about 150 cr revenue. And about 15-20 cr in profits.

I am at a loss of words on valuations.

Maybe market is smart, promoters dumb and value investors like me dumber 🙂

My exp of almost 3 decades in the market tells me, this will end badly.
2/2
MARKET CYCLE
Jiten Parmar
Jiten Parmar
@jitenkparmar
Accidents happens when one doesn't look at valuations.

A supposedly platform stock listed in 2019. OFS price was 320 Rs. High of 6396 made yesterday.

Mcap crossed 1 lac crore.

Company was affected by CoVid so will talk a bit on pre-CoVid nos.

1/3

Sales of 2300 cr in FY20. NP 730 cr. Company has a monopoly given by the govt. Business is good and many extensions taking place, which will take time to bear fruit, if at all. But valuation-wise it had gone bonkers.

2/3

Stock corrected 40%+ in 2 days. This is what can happen when one doesn't heed valuations. And ignores the risks to the business. And only looks at blue sky scenario.

A good company may not be a good investment, at any price.

3/3
VALUATION
Jiten Parmar
Jiten Parmar
@jitenkparmar
A thread I had done in sugar industry last year. A few things could have changed. But, I think there are huge challenges to the E20 story. Do we have underlying dynamics in place. Do read how much time it took for Brazil.

Disc: Invested in sugar only as tactical play.
SUGAR

More from Sugar

Rohit Chauhan
Rohit Chauhan
@rohitchauhan
Among all the risks, regulatory risk hits with no warning
https://t.co/oOb1FMg35e

This is not new and will occur again. Gets amplified if the owner and regulator are the same

If you do invest, do it with proper risk management


From the same post
SUGAR
Pritesh Patel
Pritesh Patel
@Pritesh7994
Balrampur Chini Mills is betting big on distillery capacities. Company is setting up a 3,20,000 liters per day capacity, which will be start in December 2022.
SUGAR
Advertisement
Varinder Bansal \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Varinder Bansal 🇮🇳...
@varinder_bansal
Did You Know: Balrampur Chini

Next 2 years capacity = 2 x capacity done in last 35 years of cos existence

ethanol capacity until Jan 2020: 360 KLPD
ethanol capacity expected Nov 2022: 1050 KLPD

#JustSaying with facts
SUGAR
Rohit Goyal
Rohit Goyal
@goyalrohit21
@Vivek_Investor @varinder_bansal I think this sector will boom . Many oil psu has built tankers to store ethanol .Plus internationally sugar supply is affected due to brazil frost, in International market ethanol price will go up and force brazil to make more ethanol which will decrease sugar supply.

@varinder_bansal Now this depends on which type of process (c/b/juice) is used for ethanol production but eventually making ethanol will be big play so sugar will be sacrificed. And sugar stock is decreasing due to this. Now while ethanol can be made from other grains as well .

@varinder_bansal Those grains like wheat rice will also play an important role here. But major player will be sugar and mah/upmost benefited from this being highest producer.but this vehicle water issues might give a pause to party but that’s temporary not permanent.
SUGAR
Siddhartha Bhaiya
Siddhartha Bhaiya
@sidd1307
The other just entered into quality territory today 😜

Quality hone ke liye HIGH PE hona jaroori hai
SUGAR

You May Also Like

\uc2e0\ub150\uc758\uc0ac\ub098\uc774
신념의사나이...
@Belposto_korea
What does Gold- Backed mean?
The Chinese Elders have been accumulating gold for hundreds of years. They are gold-rich. Some of their gold was loaned to the Central Banking System so that it could fund the rebuilding of Europe after the many war-torn years from World Wars I and II

BTW they never returned it but used it to start their financial empire to enslave humanity. This is the Central Bank Banking System./2

Maybe this is why one of the conditions to use their gold for the QFS is the demise and full disclosure of the Central Bank banking system before the RV can take place./3

The Elders have caves of hidden gold and are now using it to gold-back the currencies in the QFS for every country in the world. It is important to understand that the QFS and the money it is about to release is all brand-new currency./4

It was designed by the Alliance to fund the new financial system that will reset all Currencies of the world to Gold-Backed currency./5
SOCIETY
UN Watch
UN Watch
@UNWatch
The UN just voted to condemn Israel 9 times, and the rest of the world 0.

View the resolutions and voting results here:

The resolution titled "The occupied Syrian Golan," which condemns Israel for "repressive measures" against Syrian citizens in the Golan Heights, was adopted by a vote of 151 - 2 - 14.

Israel and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/HoO7oz0dwr


The resolution titled "Israeli practices affecting the human rights of the Palestinian people..." was adopted by a vote of 153 - 6 - 9.

Australia, Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/1Ntpi7Vqab


The resolution titled "Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and the occupied Syrian Golan" was adopted by a vote of 153 – 5 – 10.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/REumYgyRuF


The resolution titled "Applicability of the Geneva Convention... to the
Occupied Palestinian Territory..." was adopted by a vote of 154 - 5 - 8.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/xDAeS9K1kW
SOCIETY
Advertisement
Anshul Pandey
Anshul Pandey
@Anshulspiritual
THE NOTICEABLE SIGNS OBSERVED ON IMPENDING DEATH(मृत्यु के संकेत या चिन्ह)

As per Skanda Puran, Kartikeya had narrated to Muni Agastya about the signs of the coming death. This is as per this ancient scripture.


If one experiences the air coming out of right nostril continuously then it is observed that the person dies within three years. If the breathing is continuous towards upper side from both the nostrils, then the person can die within two three days.

If the breathing is through the mouth instead of the nostrils then the person may live only for two days. The person should take into coignance these signs of the occurance of any sudden death.

As per astrology when the Surya is in the 7th house and Chandrama is in its own house and the breathing is only through the right nostril then the danger exists. If you see a yellow black coloured figure who becomes invisible immediately then the life span is limited to 2 years.

If any person sneezes, passes urine, stool and semen all together he has only a year more to live. If a person sees blue coloured snakes flying in the sky then he has only six more months to live. If a person sees any thing opposite to its real self like colours
RELIGION
Yoruba History - by NNP
Yoruba History - by NN...
@YorubaHistory
The Ife Primary Education Research Project (1970-1983).

aka

The Ife 6-Year Primary Project.


In 1970, as the Director of the Institute of Education of the then University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife), later Dean Faculty of Education, Prof. Babs Fafunwa & his team embarked on one of the most groundbreaking research projects in education for Yorubaland.


The aim of the project was to test the hypothesis that the best instructional medium for good concept formation at a very tender age is the mother tongue.

This was bolstered by the observation that “of all the continents and peoples of the world, it is only in Africa…

…that formal education is offered in a language that is foreign to the child.”

So, Yoruba was to be used & tested as an exclusive medium of passing information or instructions to a set of pupils.

The project was based on the premise that:

(a). the child will benefit culturally, socially, linguistically & cognitively.

(b). the child’s command of English will be improved if he is taught English as an entirely separate subject by a specialist teacher through the 6 years.
ALL
Anu Satheesh
Anu Satheesh
@AnuSatheesh5
Thrikkangode Sree Randu Moorthy Temple
Ottappalam, Kerala. 🚩
#keralatemples

This is very unique temple as Shiva and Vishnu both are in the “linga” form in the same Garbhagriham. The Srikovil is in a circular pattern. Temple's Prathishta was done by Parasurama.


Mahadeva and Maha Vishnu in the same Srikovil is very rare Prathishta, but poojas are done separately Dhara is done to Maha Vishnu here. People suffering from “KAIVISHAM” and mental illness are fully cured on drinking a medicinal herb supplied by a nearby family here.


The root of the banyan tree around the Ayyappa Sannidhanam is said to have great powers for skin ailments.

Very ancient temple but was covered with forest for many years.
Later two persons Chakki and Chaathan, while cutting trees their axe hit on the nearby
@SriramKannan77


Vigrahams and it suddenly started bleeding. Later Devaprashnam was held and thus found out that these were murthy's of Shiva and Vishnu which was worshipped long back. And thus temple is constructed here.
Om Namah Sivaye
Om Namo Narayanaya
🕉🙏🕉
ALL