Sugar Industry Insights (Feb 25, 2020)
Last few years sugar industry has been a beneficiary of government largesse. Sugar cycle turned in 2015. Post that there has been surplus production.
We have to understand that sugar story depends on government help a lot. It does remain a political commodity.
1)High production next year
2)Current year production above the industry expectation of 26 mt (for UP one can get data as most are listed, but for Mah it is difficult as there are many private players and co-operatives)
4)Crude falls, to let’s say, 40-50$. The whole ethanol story becomes very difficult. Brazil also starts diverting cane to sugar instead of ethanol
More from Jiten Parmar
Disc: Invested in sugar only as tactical play.
Sugar Industry Insights (Feb 25, 2020)
— Jiten Parmar (@jitenkparmar) February 25, 2020
Last few years sugar industry has been a beneficiary of government largesse. Sugar cycle turned in 2015. Post that there has been surplus production.
Anjani - 100
Deccan Cem - 40
KCP - 44 (will be lower if value to other biz given)
NCL - 61 (has boards biz too)
Sagar - 59
EV/tonne of the companies in that region.
— Jiten Parmar (@jitenkparmar) July 8, 2020
Anjani Portland - 42
Deccan Cem - 20
KCP - conglomerate (has Vietnam sugar, hotel, engg too) - 43 (on mcap)
NCL - 31 (has boards biz too)
Sagar - 47
No recommendations. Just data.
More from Sugar
Disc: Invested in sugar only as tactical play.
Sugar Industry Insights (Feb 25, 2020)
— Jiten Parmar (@jitenkparmar) February 25, 2020
Last few years sugar industry has been a beneficiary of government largesse. Sugar cycle turned in 2015. Post that there has been surplus production.
You May Also Like
Covering one of the most unique set ups: Extended moves & Reversal plays
Time for a 🧵 to learn the above from @iManasArora
What qualifies for an extended move?
30-40% move in just 5-6 days is one example of extended move
How Manas used this info to book
The stock exploded & went up as much as 63% from my price.
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) June 22, 2020
Closed my position entirely today!#BroTip pic.twitter.com/CRbQh3kvMM
Post that the plight of the
What an extended (away from averages) move looks like!!
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) June 24, 2020
If you don't learn to sell into strength, be ready to give away the majority of your gains.#GLENMARK pic.twitter.com/5DsRTUaGO2
Example 2: Booking profits when the stock is extended from 10WMA
10WMA =
#HIKAL
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) July 2, 2021
Closed remaining at 560
Reason: It is 40+% from 10wma. Super extended
Total revenue: 11R * 0.25 (size) = 2.75% on portfolio
Trade closed pic.twitter.com/YDDvhz8swT
Another hack to identify extended move in a stock:
Too many green days!
Read
When you see 15 green weeks in a row, that's the end of the move. *Extended*
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) August 26, 2019
Simple price action analysis.#Seamecltd https://t.co/gR9xzgeb9K