Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

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A THREAD

Topic: HOW TO TRADE IN RISING PREMIUMS SCENARIO

Option sellers specially Straddle sellers feel that rising premiums give them excellent opportunity to make easy money. So what they are seeing is the theta aspect of options & ignoring the delta/gamma/vega forces.

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With rising premiums come high delta moves. There is a reason why premiums are all increasing up in the first place. High uncertainty & fear is what's controlling the markets during such times. So a volatile 200 point move in nifty is always on the cards.

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Adjusting during such delta moves involves high slippages. Such costs go in our system & are irrecoverable. So if the ATM straddle is around 400 & after 200 point downmove, the next straddle is at 450 & the loss is not just 50points but compounded much more.

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Also there are chances that there is no decay throughout the day. So a straddle seller has to take that heavy risk of carrying it forward & chances of gap openings are high during such times. If converted into Ironfly, then the cost of the wings is too expensive.

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Thus cutting down the initial credit significantly.

There will also be very few instances when premiums don't fall till expiry day. So with each delta move the cost of holding a straddle gets accumulated & pressure keeps mounting for the stubborn option sellers.

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AN ESSENTIAL THREAD ON OPTION ADJUSTMENTS

Adjustments can be done in variety of ways & depends totally at the discretion of the trader. To get a clear mind we need to know the following:

1) What to follow,
2) How to make the adjustment,
3) When to make the adjustment. (1/5)

1) We need a way to measure the imbalance created by a delta move in an option strategy. We can measure through premiums, distance from index or delta of greeks (i personally use delta). So basically whatever way of measure we use, both sides should be equal in it. (2/5)

2) Adjustment can either be done by selling extra quantity of profitable side, buying the quantity of losing side or shifting both the sides. I personally shift the sides because with extra quantities our Gamma gets imbalanced & the risk increases if market reverses. (3/5)

3) While the first 2pts are objective, when to make an adjustment is totally subjective. It can be fine tuned through experience. It also depends upon what strategy u are using. For a short strangle the adjustment required is faster than a ratio spread or an IC. (4/5)

Straddle/strangle require faster adjustments because they are more vulnerable to delta or IV spike. Any other strategies like ratio spreads, ironfly, butterfly have some bought option, which can negate the spikes for a while. So we need a defined system as to WHEN to adjust.(5/n)

Q: Sir why call option premiums are higher the put?

A: It usually happens when there is big difference between spot & future.

Example

BN Spot: 35110
BN Future: 35300
BN Synthetic Future: 35150

It depends on our perception of what is ATM & accordingly match the calls & puts.

In a recent interview with Udayan Mukherjee, the big bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala made an interesting bold statement - "I think nobody has read the Electricity (Amendment) Bill. Once it passes, it will be bigger than 1991 reforms."

A thread🧵dissecting the ongoing Power reforms 👇

2/17
In summary, the Amendment Bill 2021 says:
⚡️ Delicensing of state monopoly- open to competition
⚡️ Consumers can choose discoms (like telcos)
⚡️ Smart meters to plug leakages
⚡️ Easy resolution of disputes
⚡️ Right to 24x7 electricity
⚡️ Rewarding consumers shifting to solar

3/17
We'll discuss these in detail. But first, some context.

India's is the 3rd largest consumer of electricity. But also one of the most inefficient (measured via AT&C losses - electricity that is generated but does not reach intended customers)
AT&C: 22% vs 8% global. Chart 👇

4/17
Currently, only 9% Indians are served by private discoms (Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Delhi).

AT&C loss for Delhi has declined from 55% in 2002 to 9% in 2020 after power distribution was taken over by three private licensees. Makes a strong case for broader delicensing of discoms.

5/17
What are discoms?

The Power value chain:
Raw material (Coal, Fuel) --> Generation --> Transmission --> Distribution --> Consumption

In this chain, Distribution companies (or discoms) have been the weakest link for last 3 decades.

From HDFC Bank to Kotak to Bajaj Finance to Canara Bank!

How did lenders perform in Q4FY21?🤔

A thread🧵on the Banking/NBFC results

Hit "Retweet" to educate maximum Investors

Lets go👇

(1/24)

HDFC Bank:Stable

🏦Profits grow at 18.2%
🏦Asset quality remains stable with credit costs at 1.65% for the quarter
🏦CAR at 18.8%
🏦Gross NPAs at 1.32% vs 1.38%
🏦HDB Financial returns to profits
🏦Watching carefully on how the second wave will turn out

(2/24)

ICICI Bank Results:-Stable

🏦Operating profit grows at 20%
🏦Covid-19 provisions increased by 1000cr to 7475cr
🏦Deposits grow by 21%
🏦Net NPA declines to 1.14%
🏦Capital Adequacy at 18.06%
🏦Retail loan growth at 20%
🏦Corporate loan growth at 13%
🏦Dividend-Rs 2/share

(3/24)

Cholamandalam Investment:Stable

🏦Disbursements decline 13%
🏦Loan loss provisions at 1.4%
🏦Profits up 29%
🏦Positive on Auto financing

(4/24)

HDFC Ltd:Strong

🏦Loan disbursements grow 60%
🏦Month of March had highest ever disbursements
🏦Gross NPAs at 1.98%
🏦Individual loan NPAs at 0.99%
🏦Non-Individual Loan NPAs at 4.77%
🏦Dividend of Rs 23/share
🏦PAT grows by 19%

(5/24)

If u are a day trader, irrespective of the TF u trade, u should align urself with the trend in 15min TF. Avoiding whats happening in 15min TF, is highly dangerous and will end up as a very costly mistake.

When market opens gap up/down, i check two stocks always. #HDFC and #HDFCBANK.
In first candle #HDFCBANK gave signal that today is a bulls day.
RR 1:6 on a high volume trade.
#daytrading #NIFTY #NSE #BANKNIFTY

#priceaction #candlesticks

#smallminters

My course on the basics of #stockmarket is live on https://t.co/8Jbd0ujLKq! Thanks, @malpani for helping create such a nice platform that promotes learning :D

Link: https://t.co/tHYK9XBovd

P.S. in case you've watched the course vids before, I will be adding more videos soon!