BC SOCIETY
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

There's been a lot of discussion about how to communicate uncertainty about vaccines/transmission, guidance for vaccinated people, how to increase vaccine demand/address hesitancy, & what vaccines mean for the "end" of the pandemic.

Here are my thoughts. I call it "the well."

 This pandemic has plunged us to the bottom of a very deep well. After recovering from the shock of a long, abrupt fall into cold, fetid water, we looked up and saw only darkness. But we did find a ladder leading upward.
We've been slowly climbing this ladder, sometimes slipping and falling down a few rungs, but we've endured and kept climbing. Our dedication was rewarded. We've developed very efficacious vaccines, and now as we look up, we can see a small circle of light at the top.
As we continue to climb, the circle will slowly expand. The hope of that circle, slowly growing as we climb ever closer to the top, keeps us going. Eventually we will emerge into the bright sun. Hopefully then we'll put a cover on the well so we can't fall in again.
Now that we have two very efficacious vaccines—that have exceeded our wildest expectations at protecting us against disease. That's a tremendous public health achievement. It should allow us to tighten our grip on the ladder and give us a second wind on the climb.
But there's still a lot we don't know about the vaccines. Will they prevent infection? Will they reduce transmission when enough people are vaccinated? We don't yet know. But this research is ongoing because it is so crucially important.
https://t.co/9ZmDc92dE1
My suspicion is that vaccines this good at preventing disease will have a substantial impact on protecting against infection altogether, and will likely reduce transmission. It's unlikely that these vaccines would have no effect on transmission. But we don't know that yet.
This is supported by pre-clinical data in non-human primates, as reviewed here by @florian_krammer.

Most of the vaccines under development or authorized at least partially protect against infection & reduce replication (see URT and LRT protection columns)
https://t.co/g8NrCISY7E
But you can see that some of that protection was partial, and this was in monkeys anyway. Therefore we can't assume that vaccination alone will completely prevent transmission in the real world (though it likely will reduce it significantly!)
Thus, we must be cautious, especially when not many people have been vaccinated. It doesn't mean we'll be wearing masks and distancing indefinitely or that we release the ladder in despair. It means we grip the ladder tighter, fix our gaze on the light, and keep climbing.
So right now, when people get vaccinated, they should continue taking precautions until we know more. Be reassured that studies are ongoing to get more information on transmission and asymptomatic infection, and we'll know more very soon (in a month or two).
But as we gaze at the light at the top of the well, and it drives us forward, we also can't forget that we aren't there yet. If we look around, we are still surrounded by the cold, dark stones lining the well.
https://t.co/qQjID1s9yz
Right now in many places, including the US, the situation is very grim. More transmission=more cases=more hospitalization=more deaths. We can't become complacent. We can't become so fixated on the light that we forget to climb towards it. We MUST reduce transmission.
That means increasing vigilance on measures to reduce our own exposure risk:
-Avoid gatherings outside your household
-Stay home if sick
-Avoid crowded spaces
-Avoid enclosed spaces
-Ventilate if possible
-Masks
-Distancing
-Wash hands
-Disinfect high-touch surfaces
It also means advocating for public health policies that serve this goal:
-Increase test/trace capacity
-Increase surveillance (genomic, wastewater, etc)
-Economic support to help people comply with the risk reduction measures above
-Create vaccine demand
-Counter misinformation
The good news that's often lost is that if we reduce overall transmission & vaccinate more people, the effect will be synergistic. Less transmission + more vaccines = faster progress to fewer restrictions. It will feel like the climb is getting faster. Hope will be more tangible.
There have also been a lot of alarming statements about the herd immunity threshold, as in "it's much higher than we thought". Maybe, but if we can reduce transmission, we don't need to get all the way to 80-90% vaccination uptake before we can relax restrictions. Here's why.
Viruses are obligate parasites and can't exist without a host. They are driven by evolution to find a susceptible host (in this case, a person) & thus spread in populations. Herd immunity threshold is the & of immune people at which a virus can no longer spread in a population.
When a virus hits an immunized host, it's a dead end. Even if immunized people can become asymptomatically infected and shed virus to infect unvaccinated people, it's very unlikely this would result in transmission to another vaccinated person. This is not typical virus behavior.
Furthermore, we know from non-human primate vaccine and convalescent rechallenge studies that this doesn't happen in monkeys. So it would be very unusual, and I'd go so far as to say it's probably not going to happen in people either.
If everyone is susceptible and/or if virus transmission is rampant, it's not hard for the virus to find a new host. But if there's more people immunized, there are fewer susceptible hosts. If there's less virus spreading around, that decreases opportunity for spread further.
So back to the well, as we keep climbing, more people are going to be vaccinated. If we reduce transmission too, then we're going to increase the pace at which we climb this ladder. The circle of light at the top will expand faster as we get closer and closer.
The challenge now is to keep climbing. To not lose our grip because we are tired and this climb has already been so long and so arduous. We are exhausted, physically and mentally. Our health has suffered. We are tired of being in the dark.
So keep your eyes on the circle of light. Have hope that though each step up the ladder feels like a herculean effort, the circle is expanding. If we can summon the reserves to make it through this final climb, we'll step into the light, possibly by summer. It all depends on us.
Vaccines work and we have great ones. Risk reduction works if we can stay the course. Get vaccinated as soon as you can. Be cautious but know that this is in our power and the end is in sight, even though things are still hard. Let's just keep climbing towards it.
Also just adding here the things that will set us back:
-Overstating or outright lying about vaccine efficacy
-Equating guidance intended to address a short-term problem as telling people to abandon hope
-Stating that education/nuance=telling people restrictions are eternal
Here's a great perspective from @notdred about vaccines being undersold. We need to create vaccine demand. We should do so by being honest and direct about what we know and what we don't.
https://t.co/L2ROwFqvZB
Finally, my predictions for when we will "step into the light". If we can get vaccination > 40% and rising by May/June while simultaneously reducing transmission, we can probably start to relax. Travel and in-person holidays in 2021 will be totally feasible for vaccinated people.
So bottom line: take precautions now. Get the vaccines when you can. I certainly will be first in line when my number is called for either Pfizer or Moderna (and J&J or Novavax if the data is similar). Vaccines work, are safe, and yes, they are the long-term solution!

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1/OK, data mystery time.

This New York Times feature shows China with a Gini Index of less than 30, which would make it more equal than Canada, France, or the Netherlands. https://t.co/g3Sv6DZTDE

That's weird. Income inequality in China is legendary.

Let's check this number.

2/The New York Times cites the World Bank's recent report, "Fair Progress? Economic Mobility across Generations Around the World".

The report is available here:

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The graph cites the World Development Indicators as its source for the income inequality data.


4/The World Development Indicators are available at the World Bank's website.

Here's the Gini index: https://t.co/MvylQzpX6A

It looks as if the latest estimate for China's Gini is 42.2.

That estimate is from 2012.

5/A Gini of 42.2 would put China in the same neighborhood as the U.S., whose Gini was estimated at 41 in 2013.

I can't find the <30 number anywhere. The only other estimate in the tables for China is from 2008, when it was estimated at 42.8.
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AFP graphic charting Hong Kong's main socio-economic indicators and opinion polls on press freedom and government performance

@AFPgraphics


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Frontline first aid.

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@DavidNeiwert
1) “Eliminationism” is a term you need not just to become familiar with, especially in today’s American rush toward authoritarianism. This will be a long, illustrated thread explaining what it means, how it works, and why Donald Trump is now our Eliminationist in Chief.


Warning: Some images contain violence and are disturbing.

Also warning: This thread is ridiculously long. 75 tweets is insane. I apologize. But this stuff is important. I hope you find it compelling anyway. If not, I understand.

2) So, what exactly do we mean by “eliminationism”? Here’s the academic definition:


3) It was largely coined by Holocaust scholar Daniel Jonah Goldhagen in his 1996 book Hitler’s Willing Executioners, about the role ordinary Germans played in the Holocaust, which he described as fueled by “eliminationist antisemitism.”


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BlackCalvinist
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LOL at the uptick in followers.

Fair Warning: I believe that Cultural American Patriotic Churchianity (CAPC for short - aka White Evangelicalism/Christian Nationalism) has caused more damage to the body of Christ and the credibility of the church than CRT ever has or will.

It's been a systemic problem since the founding of the country (indeed, before the founding of the country) and has contributed to the church being complicit in chattel slavery, Jim Crow, cointelpro, redlining and a host of other things the Bible condemns as sin.

The conflation of Christianity with Americanism since the founding of the country has left too many actual believers confusing love of country and culture with biblical Christianity (thus, in their minds, to fight against conservative political culture is also to fight against

what they think is biblical Christianity). It's part of what makes it okay to minimize the sins of men like Dabney while extolling his ability as a theologian in other areas, or minimizing it as him being 'a man of his time'. It also allows you to have an atheist speak at your

Christian conference while condemning your brother who holds different political views than you, but professes the same faith you do.

On the other side of the issue, the phrase 'black lives matter' is true because of the Imago Dei. Debate your momma about it if you disagree.
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Marshall Steinbaum \U0001f525
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@Econ_Marshall
My wonderful @jainfamilyinst colleagues @laura_bmw & @Edi_Nilaj have released their new report "Student Debt and Young America," which pretty comprehensively demolishes many of the myths about who does and doesn't have student debt.
https://t.co/y02KFosRQ3
Highlights to follow
/1

@laura_bmw @Edi_Nilaj First of all, look at this one chart that tells you why the student debt crisis is happening: rising debt; stagnant income, and the gap has opened widest for minority borrowers.
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You look at that chart and you see the total failure of the human capital model to explain labor market outcomes, insofar as it even is a falsifiable social science hypothesis.
/3

Second, while it's true that total loan balances are increasing in income, student debt has increased most over time among the lowest-income groups. This tells you that student debt is becoming a marker of the disadvantaged rather than the advantaged.
/4


Third, balances on outstanding loans are rising over time, not declining. As I said in my last report, the student debt crisis is a crisis of non-repayment. This is why it's foolish to think the student debt is ever going to be paid back, whether it's cancelled now or not.
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\u0b85\u0ba9\u0bcd\u0baa\u0bc6\u0bb4\u0bbf\u0bb2\u0bcd
அன்பெழில்...
@anbezhil12
#ஆதித்தியஹ்ருதயம் ஸ்தோத்திரம்
இது சூரிய குலத்தில் உதித்த இராமபிரானுக்கு தமிழ் முனிவர் அகத்தியர் உபதேசித்ததாக வால்மீகி இராமாயணத்தில் வருகிறது. ஆதித்ய ஹ்ருதயத்தைத் தினமும் ஓதினால் பெரும் பயன் பெறலாம் என மகான்களும் ஞானிகளும் காலம் காலமாகக் கூறி வருகின்றனர். ராம-ராவண யுத்தத்தை


தேவர்களுடன் சேர்ந்து பார்க்க வந்திருந்த அகத்தியர், அப்போது போரினால் களைத்து, கவலையுடன் காணப்பட்ட ராமபிரானை அணுகி, மனிதர்களிலேயே சிறந்தவனான ராமா போரில் எந்த மந்திரத்தைப் பாராயணம் செய்தால் எல்லா பகைவர்களையும் வெல்ல முடியுமோ அந்த ரகசிய மந்திரத்தை, வேதத்தில் சொல்லப்பட்டுள்ளதை உனக்கு

நான் உபதேசிக்கிறேன், கேள் என்று கூறி உபதேசித்தார். முதல் இரு சுலோகங்கள் சூழ்நிலையை விவரிக்கின்றன. மூன்றாவது சுலோகம் அகத்தியர் இராமபிரானை விளித்துக் கூறுவதாக அமைந்திருக்கிறது. நான்காவது சுலோகம் முதல் முப்பதாம் சுலோகம் வரை ஆதித்ய ஹ்ருதயம் என்னும் நூல். முப்பத்தி ஒன்றாம் சுலோகம்

இந்தத் துதியால் மகிழ்ந்த சூரியன் இராமனை வாழ்த்துவதைக் கூறுவதாக அமைந்திருக்கிறது.
ஐந்தாவது ஸ்லோகம்:
ஸர்வ மங்கள் மாங்கல்யம் ஸர்வ பாப ப்ரநாசனம்
சிந்தா சோக ப்ரசமனம் ஆயுர் வர்த்தனம் உத்தமம்
பொருள்: இந்த அதித்ய ஹ்ருதயம் என்ற துதி மங்களங்களில் சிறந்தது, பாவங்களையும் கவலைகளையும்


குழப்பங்களையும் நீக்குவது, வாழ்நாளை நீட்டிப்பது, மிகவும் சிறந்தது. இதயத்தில் வசிக்கும் பகவானுடைய அனுக்ரகத்தை அளிப்பதாகும்.
முழு ஸ்லோக லிங்க் பொருளுடன் இங்கே உள்ளது https://t.co/Q3qm1TfPmk
சூரியன் உலக இயக்கத்திற்கு மிக முக்கியமானவர். சூரிய சக்தியால்தான் ஜீவராசிகள், பயிர்கள்
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Trump on climate: I don't believe it. Trump on Khashoggi: I don't believe it. Trump on Russia: I don't believe it. Idiocy? A canny game? Doesn't really matter as much as the underlying intellectual autocracy. In this administration only one opinion matters.

It's an assault on facts and reason. It's an assault on good governance. It's an assault on the bureaucracies that are being discounted. It's an assault on science and history. But it is also an assault on one of the underpinnings of democracy.

We live in a system that is grounded on the idea of collaborative government. Leaders may have a final word but even then, there are typically checks and balances. Hopefully, in this case, such checks and balances may work. But they also are being tested.

The president's position that he is smarter than all the world's scientists, than the entire intelligence community, than experts who have studied any issue all their lives, is, of course, asinine. But his belief that government turns solely on his opinion, is monarchic.

Louis XIV reportedly said, "L'etat est moi." That he was the state. Trump asserting that he knows better than all, discounts all advice, that his brain is enough to chart the course for America alone, is essentially saying the same thing.
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