You know why they didn't try anything like this in the 1970s? Because a generation which remembered WW2 & were still strong enough would not have let them. Politicians were scared of people's reactions back then. They were literally scared for their lives. What happened?

WHY MASKS DON'T WORK:
Coughing is NOT the issue.
Large droplets are NOT the issue. Breathing exhales MUCH MORE virus in fine aerosols than coughing. Finer aerosols bypass masks/nose & reach the lungs. Masks NEBULIZE. Solution is VENTILATION not face masks.
https://t.co/FMqYszHKVt

"Once direct measurement of particles containing viruses in exhaled breath was technically feasible, most particles (87%) with influenza viral RNA were found to be smaller than 1 μm."

"Influenza viral RNA was detected in the exhaled breath of 92% of adults. The fine particles contained 8·8-times more viral copies than did the coarse ones. Respiratory viruses have been found in both coughs (82% of participants) and exhaled breath (81% of participants)"

👉 "Human rhinovirus was collected more frequently in exhaled breath than in cough aerosols using a filter method." 👈

"The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus was isolated from seven room air samples from dedicated MERS units in two South Korean hospitals. All seven were positive by PCR and four of seven were positive on viral culture."

I have studied the pandemic response of many countries. One of them got a key element right, which resulted in very few deaths: Japan. Their response was to keep people OUT of hospitals. A policy of early home treatment works best, hospitals only for severe cases & NO INTUBATIONS

JAPAN: "No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open. No high-tech apps that tracked people’s movements were deployed." RESULT: Among the lowest deaths in the

Saving the NHS simply means providing early treatment kits in pharmacies & avoiding hospitals for Covid19 patients. For Covid19 infections during a pandemic, hospitals are the problem, not the solution.

I have read accounts of people with high fever literally turned away from hospitals, yet being told by phone what treatment protocol to follow. That was the best pandemic response by far, NOT lockdowns.

JAPAN had some of the lowest Covid19 mortality in the world:
-NO LOCKDOWN
-NO TEST AND TRACE
-NO BUSINESS CLOSURES
-NO HOSPITAL FOR NON CRITICAL CASES
-HOME TREATMENT
-HEALTHY DIET
-LOW OBESITY

They are now saying my tweets are misleading. It's another lie. They are the ones who are misleading, and I will now prove it in this thread. They are lying about the safety of the vaccines:

"Why was vaccination with the COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca suspended?" Paul-Erlich Federal Institute for Vaccines & Biomedicines,

"A specific form of severe cerebral venous thrombosis associated with platelet deficiency (thrombocytopenia) and bleeding has been identified in seven cases (as of 15 March 2021) in temporal association with vaccination with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca."

"1. It is a very serious disease that is also difficult to treat. Of the seven affected individuals, three individuals had died."

"2. The affected individuals had ages ranging from about 20 to 50 years."

BAYES' THEOREM: The basic reason we get so many false positives to COVID19. The disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease: THE MATHS:
https://t.co/oLHyxYJW9H

"Suppose that you are worried that you might have a rare disease. You decide to get tested, and suppose that the testing methods for this disease are correct 99 percent of the time"

"Suppose this disease is actually quite rare, occurring randomly in the general population in only one of every 10,000 people. If your test results come back POSITIVE, what are your chances that you actually have the disease? LESS THAN 1% chance that you have the disease!"

"The basic reason we get such a surprising result is because the disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease"

Say mass testing of the contagious virus was done to 1 million people. In that million, 100 will really have the disease, 99 will be correctly diagnosed as having it. 999,900 of the million will not have the disease, but of those about 9,999 will be false positives! #BayesTheorem

PROBIOTICS & VIT D: "The vitamin D receptor is highly expressed in the gastrointestinal tract where it transacts gene expression..These results support the underlying hypothesis that the human gut microbiome and vitamin D metabolism are integrally related"
https://t.co/15rVFa1fkk

"Men with higher levels of 1,25(OH)2D and higher activation ratios, but not 25(OH)D itself, are more likely to possess butyrate producing bacteria that are associated with better gut microbial health."

"Several studies suggest that gut microbiota alter intestinal vitamin D metabolism (VDM), and probiotic supplements can affect circulating vitamin D levels."

"Because the serum 25(OH)D correlates with overall vitamin D storage, it is the preferred clinical measure to assess vitamin D sufficiency."

"Clinically, serum 25(OH)D levels ≥20 ng/ml are considered adequate while 25(OH)D levels <20 ng/ml are defined as vitamin D deficiency."

1/ The “I Have a Dream" speech is one of the most extraordinary speeches in American history. You should read it again. First, a few thoughts about the common American heritage Dr. King relied upon in calling Americans to rededicate themselves to the unfinished work of freedom.

2/ Dr. King delivered his speech in what he called the “hallowed spot” of the Lincoln memorial. More than a picturesque backdrop, King relied on America’s reverence for Lincoln and the common celebration of Lincoln’s words and acts, especially the Emancipation Proclamation.

3/ “Five score years ago…” King echoes the words of the Gettysburg Address. Like Lincoln, King invokes the Declaration of Independence and the fundamental principles of American freedom, “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.” Every person in that crowd knew these words.

4/ The Declaration, Constitution and Emancipation Proclamation declared and established the fundamental American principles of freedom that all Americans knew and believed in. But these principles and promises remained unfulfilled for black Americans.

5/ Lincoln’s audience knew the history of slavery and many had suffered personal loss in the ongoing war. Dr. King’s audience knew the history of violent racism, segregation, and unequal economic opportunity. The Proclamation freed the slaves, “but the Negro still is not free.”

Remember: Just because an idea is old doesn't mean it's good.

Knowing whether old ideas are more likely to be good requires understanding whether conditions have changed in important ways.

Horse archery was an amazing method of warfare for over a thousand years...then people invented guns, and suddenly this great idea that had stood the test of time became obsolete.

Then again, when underlying conditions don't change much, tried-and-true approaches are probably better.

"Learning the lessons of history" usually just means assuming ergodicity and stationarity in an informal time-series model...

(end)

Every crisis becomes a religion if it lasts long enough.

One factor in that transformation is the Beautiful Theory phenomenon: the power elite insists its remedies are logical and politically correct so they MUST work, even if the actual evidence shows they obviously don't.

For Black History Month, Vox is publishing a big series on rethinking policy for Black America.

I wrote 3,200 words on eradicating exclusionary zoning.

It's a 3 step formula: Persuade, incentivize, and if all else fails, SUE THE SUBURBS.

Thread

We know that exclusionary zoning is locking millions out of opportunity.

Work by @OppInsights, Richard Rothstein, Ta-Nehisi Coates, @nhannahjones, @RickKahlenberg, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Enrico Moretti and @ProfSchleich details the economic impact of these discriminatory policies.

51 years after the Fair Housing Act, it's never been seriously enforced. It's time to change that.

First things first, Biden has work to do to convince whoever can be convinced that there is a racial, environmental, and economic imperative to undo residential segregation.

Use whatever explanation works!

For sympathetic progressives Biden should link racial and environmental justice to ending exclusionary zoning.

For everyone else, he can simply make an economic

Second, there are many tools to incentivize localities that rely on federal dollars to reform their zoning codes.

There is a ton of federal money that can be conditioned on reforming exclusionary zoning laws. @ebwhamilton has some good ideas on this front.